GustavMattias

For the week ending 2/2 (remember, if it's still Sunday last week's can still be completed!): 1. We're doing a bit better than expected so far, beating three teams and taking it to overtime four times. Some teams have been playing their backups against us, though. Would this be different if we faced starting goalies? 2. What are we doing right so far? What are we doing wrong? 3. Are there any players in the coming draft class that you're excited to see out there and who you'd like to see us pick up? 4. What are your opinions of AGMs? Should they exist? Should we hire one? If we were to hire someone, who would you like to see take it? 5. With the first week of the season done, how do you think you'll end up stat-wise for the season as a whole? 6. What are your long-term plans here? Stick around, test out free agency, recreate if it's the end of your career? @RunnerBert11 @MetalToday @Thranduil @Matt_O @Frank @Anthony Matthews @Tyler @Ahma @Philliefan @ShawnGlade @Tbeez99 @Brrbisbrr

Backup vs. backup and Davos comes out on top. I like.

Not applying, but If anyone who is hired has any questions, feel free to shoot me a message.

Excited wailing

Care to join my "make the Nuuk Nukes a VHLM team" campaign?

Gosh diddly dang it, I was planning to do this with the Hounds...

Hounds references are so last season.

-Have you heard any podcasts made by @Berocka recently? If so, what are your thoughts? -You said in the Malmo press conference that the new press conference rule hurts podcasters. How so, and what's your opinion on the change as a whole? -If you had to suggest an incentive to podcast that you think would end up with more people making podcasts, what would it be? -There's a bit of talk floating around about making a stricter update scale. Is this something you'd be in favor of? -Any ideas on what's been holding Marleau back? Is this finally the season we see him break out?

I know this was a backup game but great job to Davos nonetheless!

When I switched to dark I thought it looked weird for a few days but I ended up preferring it eventually.

Best of luck with the Hounds! They're my old team, make them proud.

Fun fact: if I left stamkosfan out of this, it would work even more in my favor.

Today, I was told that the Gustav Effect does not exist. What? Shock. Horror. Absolute madness. Retching noises. This is unspeakable, and I feel so strongly about silencing the doubters that I'm willing to take another significant chunk of time out of my life to rant about it (though the TPE incentive doesn't exactly hurt). In my previous article on the matter, which dropped about 6 months ago to mixed reviews, I took a look at every hire which has been made around the league since I joined, and ran the numbers to determine statistical significance--in other words, did my presence on a team significantly impact hires into management positions from that team? The article in question determined that under lenient criteria, the Gustav Effect absolutely exists, while under strict criteria, while likely that it exists, there's about a 20% chance that it doesn't and people from my team just happened to be hired. So, I'm writing an update to answer the question once and for all... Does my presence on a team lead to others on that team getting hired as GMs or AGMs? Let's break it down. I actually haven't figured out what's up with the numbers yet at this point; I'll be doing the calculations as I write. So, if this backfires in my face, too bad, I get to claim it anyway. Since I joined the league in S65, here's a list of everyone (as far as I know) who has been hired (officially, sorry Calgary) as a GM or an AGM (and here's something else in parentheses, yes, I know, I do this a lot). Names will be separated and color-coded by season. VHL GM: Advantage (Malmo)--S66 Enorama (DC)--S67 diamond_ace (Prague)--S67 Esso2264 (New York)--S67 Jubo07 (Helsinki)--S69 Peace (Toronto)--S70 Moi (Davos)--S70 VHL AGM: Matt_O (Malmo)--S66 FacebookFighter (Moscow)--S66 Dil (New York)--S66 HenrikZoiderberg (Prague)--S67 McWolf (DC)--S67 Tate (Riga)--S67 Sonnet (Helsinki)--S67 ColeMrtz (New York)--S68 eaglesfan036 (Moscow)--S69 Dil or Blade (Calgary, whichever one was official)--S69 cody73 (Calgary)--S70 Nykonax (Riga)--S70 VHLM GM: Thranduil (Halifax)--S66 Ya Boi (Mississauga)--S66 InstantRockstar (San Diego)--S66 Nykonax (Mexico)--S66 Frostbeard (Houston)--S66 Rayzor_7 (Minnesota)--S66 Acydburn (Ottawa)--S67 Matt_O (Las Vegas)--S67 fonziGG (Halifax)--S68 DMaximus (Philadelphia)--S68 motzaburger (Mexico)--S69 Poptart (Las Vegas)--S69 Dil (Halifax)--S70 Berocka (Halifax Mississauga)--S70 Elmebeck (Saskatoon)--S70 MexicanCow123 (Yukon)--S70 VHLM AGM: GlowyGoat (Houston)--S65 BOOM (Philadelphia)--S65 Radcow (Mississauga)--S66 uphillmoss (Ottawa)--S66 MexicanCow123 (San Diego)--S66 StamkosFan (Mexico)--S66 Snussu (Mexico)--S66 Jables (Houston)--S66 Acydburn (Halifax)--S66 McWolf (Halifax)--S66 FakeJenton (Las Vegas)--S67 DMaximus (Minnesota)--S67 Berocka (Mississauga)--S67 motzaburger (Mexico)--S66 fonziGG (Halifax)--S67 cody73 (Yukon)--S67 HulkHogan (Ottawa)--S67 Poptart (Las Vegas)--S68 Mr_Hatter (Minnesota)--S68 Elmebeck (Saskatoon)--S68 Cxsquared (Mexico)--S68 JeffD (Halifax)--S68 Krice13 (Yukon)--S69 Alex Bridge (San Diego)--S69 DoktorFunk (Mississauga)--S70 fever95 (San Diego)--S70 So NOW IT'S TIME TO RUN THE NUMBERS. To find out what affects what, we need to look at three factors: -The number of hires made, in total -The number of hires made, from my teams -The number of teams in the league at the time the hire was made So, note the differences! For hires made prior to the formation of expansion teams (GM and AGM hires of said expansion teams included--in other words, any hire made before that team had a roster to pick from), those hires have been represented in the color of the previous season, for my convenience and for your confusion. This is because our third factor must be taken into account--in S67, for example, the league was brought up to its current size with the addition of Prague and DC--but people hired to those teams, as well as people hired to any team prior to said expansion, are mathematically equivalent to a hire from S66, as the expansion teams did not have a roster to pick from (and, therefore, could not have seen any hires being made from them) at that point in time. Now, a couple rules must be put into place to ensure that I'm not sneaking people in for my own benefit... -The Gustav Effect can only apply to players with no management experience prior to appearing on my team. This, for example, rules out Nyko, who was hired as AGM in Riga while playing for the Hounds, but who has previously been both GM and AGM for other teams. -Myself being hired, as well as people being hired by me, do not count as someone who has been influenced by the Gustav Effect, but they do not count as someone who hasn't. In other words, these situations will be treated as if a hire never happened in the first place. I believe this is fair as, though I was the one who directly controlled the "hired" status of these people, each one had been actively applying for positions around the league prior to being picked up by me (this eliminates Radcow in S66, Berocka in S67, DoktorFunk in S70, and myself in both S66 and S70). For this we'll be using a chi-squared test, which you can read all about here (Look it up and do your own reading on the matter if that doesn't explain it well enough). A chi-squared test determines the probability that a certain set of results is due to chance, without any outside influences (read: Gustav Effects). The formula can be found below... ...and, basically, the higher the number is, the greater the chance that we've got us a Gustav Effect. The test also relies upon "degrees of freedom," or, in other words, the number of choices between possible outcomes. In this case, we've only got two outcomes--hired and not hired, so that means we've only got one possible difference in outcomes, or one degree of freedom. Here's a table: We're only going to be looking at the top row here, for one degree of freedom. But, as you can see on the bottom, "significant" values are those with a 5% chance of being randomly stumbled upon--or a 95% chance that these values were influenced by other factors. So, if the numbers we end up with come out to 3.84 or higher, in total, then we've got us a Gustav Effect. Let's start by looking at who I can claim as a Gustav Effect hire... HOUSTON TEAMMATES: GlowyGoat (Houston)--S65 Jables (Houston)--S66 FacebookFighter (Moscow)--S66 MALMO TEAMMATES: Matt_O (Malmo)--S66 Matt_O (Las Vegas)--S67 fonziGG (Halifax)--S68 MISSISSAUGA UNDERLINGS PLAYERS: Rayzor_7 (Minnesota)--S66 cody73 (Yukon)--S67 HulkHogan (Ottawa)--S67 ColeMrtz (New York)--S68 Cxsquared (Mexico)--S68 JeffD (Halifax)--S68 Krice13 (Yukon)--S69 cody73 (Calgary)--S70 Berocka (Halifax Mississauga)--S70 DEDUCTIONS (People who are either me or hired by me) Radcow (Mississauga)--S66 Ya Boi (Mississauga)--S66 Berocka (Mississauga)--S67 Moi (Davos)--S70 DoktorFunk (Mississauga)--S70 So, now we need to break down the number of teams in the league, and when they were in the league. -In S65 there were 8 VHLM teams and 9 VHL teams, for a total of 17. -In S66 there were 11 VHLM teams and 10 VHL teams, for a total of 21. -From S67 to S70, there have been 11 VHLM teams and 12 VHL teams, for a total of 23. We'll reduce the number to the following, to account for a) teams largely made up of inactives, and b) people already in management. -13 total teams in S65 -16 total teams in S66 -18 total teams from S67-present So, under the "13-team" umbrella of players hired in S65 and players hired in S66 prior to the formation of expansion team rosters, we've got: GlowyGoat (Houston)--S65 In the "16-team" space of hires made in S66 and before the formation of expansion team rosters in S67, we've got: Jables (Houston)--S66 FacebookFighter (Moscow)--S66 Matt_O (Malmo)--S66 Rayzor_7 (Minnesota)--S66 And, in the "18-team" space from S67 to today, we've got: Matt_O (Las Vegas)--S67 cody73 (Yukon)--S67 HulkHogan (Ottawa)--S67 fonziGG (Halifax)--S68 ColeMrtz (New York)--S68 Cxsquared (Mexico)--S68 JeffD (Halifax)--S68 Krice13 (Yukon)--S69 cody73 (Calgary)--S70 Berocka (Halifax Mississauga)--S70 Counting the total number of hires above, we can see that we've had: -11 hires made in the "13 team" group (13 hires total, but minus myself and Radcow) -15 hires made in the "16 team" group -30 hires made in the "18 team" group (33 total, minus myself, Berocka, and DoktorFunk) And out of the group that I'm (jokingly, mind you) taking credit for, we have: -1 hire in the "13 team" group -4 hires in the "16 team" group -10 hires in the "18 team" group I'm considering myself to be a member of Houston only in S65, and a member of both Mississauga and Malmo in every other season. So, that's one team in S65, and two teams everywhere else. To stack things against myself, even, I'll consider both of my teams full teams, with no deductions due to the presence of inactives or other members of the team who were in management. So, we can expect: 0.846 hires to have been made from my team in the "13 team" group 1.875 hires to have been made from my teams in the "16 team" group 3.333 hires to have been made from my teams in the "18 team" group So, now let's plug everything into the above equation. With apologies for the terrible formatting as I have no idea how to center this, here's the table of expected values for S65: S65 S66 S67-Present Hired 0.846 1.875 3.333 Not Hired 10.154 13.125 26.667 And, the chi-squared values... S65 S66 S67-Present Hired 0.028 2.408 13.336 Not Hired 0.002 0.344 1.667 These values are cumulative, meaning that the sum of each value provides the total value. Adding these up, we get a final chi-squared value of 17.785. According to the table above, reaching a point where it is 99% probable that the Gustav Effect exists would require a value of 6.63--far below what we've reached here. Basically we've got a virtual proof of the Gustav Effect's existence--or, at least, a 99.999 (keep going with some more 9's) percent chance of it. In fact, it would take 10 degrees of freedom to make these results insignificant. So, the Gustav Effect exists. GAZE UPON MY MIGHTY AURA, YE PEASANTS, AND QUAKE. 1,639 words, good for three weeks. Obligatory @Renomitsu tag here.