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How Many First-Gens Go On To Recreate?


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This was just something I was interested in so I figured I'd look into it. I looked into two different elements of this:


- First Gens who exceeded 200 TPE and have had a recreate exceed 200 TPE as well

- First Gens who exceeded 400 TPE and have had a recreate exceed 400 TPE as well.


The sample size that I used was from players in the Season 63 Draft Class (since that was the first class where I feel like we saw proper results from recruitment drives, although Season 62 was solid in this respect as well) up to players in the Season 74 Draft Class (with the reason I cut off there being I got to a handful of players in that class who, while still active with their recreate, had yet to make 400 TPE, so felt like carrying on using classes after that would skew the results.) 


For First Gens who exceeded 200 TPE, 45% of them have gone on to have a recreate that also exceeded 200 TPE. The Season 70 Draft Class had the most success on this front, with 10 of it's 14 (71.4%) 200 TPE First Gens going on to make another 200 TPE player, although this is a big outlier as the next best draft class in this category (Season 69) was quite a way down from that but still successful with 58.9%. The lowest draft class in this category was Season 72, with just 30.8% of its 200 TPE players getting a recreate over 200 TPE, but Season 65 (31.3%) and Season 74 (33.3%) were not too far ahead in that regard. 


For First Gens who exceeded 400 TPE, 54.7% of them have gone on to have a recreate that also exceeded 400 TPE, however this could rise to 57.1% if the active recreates that are still yet to hit 400 TPE from the S73 and S74 classes go on to surpass 400 TPE. The best draft classes in this regard were the Season 63 Draft Class (77.8%) and Season 66 (70.6%) and outside of the Season 74 Draft Class (which as mentioned before still has a handful of players that are active that can yet surpass 400 TPE), no class is below 40% in that category. 

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I wonder how much this is swayed by recruitment numbers. I remember S70 being really thin, especially for the modern VHL. So on top of a lower sample size overall, perhaps there's the factor of less competition = more demand = more attention = more retention? Especially for lower earners who might have been bumped into the 2nd/3rd rounds when usually they would have been 3rd/4th.


I also find it really interesting that S63/66 are the highest in your second category. In contrast to S70, these were super notable classes filled with new creates. At the risk of coming across as self-centered (as a S66 create myself), I think those two as our first (post-dead era) historically large classes did quite a bit to shape the league itself and form a new generation of members altogether. Players who hung around long enough to hit 400 were also players who lived through the greatest period of growth and change the league has seen--and many were directly involved in that rather than coming in after the fact and experiencing business as usual. The feeling of "what's next" in the late S60s was absolutely unparalleled--expansion just about every season, GM jobs a hot commodity, earning records being shattered, you name it. First-gens, being a huge portion of the league, really needed to step up and make a hell of an impact while still first-gens, and the responsibilities (and experiences) had by many of us were good enough to make us VHL lifers.


In contrast, I'd be interested in seeing the numbers for S75 once everything has settled TPE-wise--first-gens in that class, particularly lower earners, were a problem because there were just so many of them, and a lot of GMs would rather have had no pick at all than draft a clicker late and have to clear roster space down the road. That sheer lack of demand will probably lead to really low numbers in that 200 tier, even with the group of solid members we still got out of that class.

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