What makes a Hall of Famer?

[Quik 4,113]

Channeling my inner @Victor for this one...

 

What goes into a Hall of Famer? Well, in examining the chances of 2 potential additions to the ballot for the S65 Hall of Fame Induction, I've pretty much gone through every induction since the move to our current forum, and calculated what is considered a Hall of Fame Skater (did not look at goalies here). The first, most interesting note is that, as a skater, you are FAR more likely to get in as a forward, than a defender, with forwards accounting for 78% of skater inductees since S35. A couple other interesting notes are that only 2 defenders have gotten in without winning a Labatte Trophy (Higgins, and Valiq, the latter of which scored an obscene 300 goals in his career), while Connor Low won 5 Labatte Trophies, and 9 in total, during his 5 seasons as a defender - absolutely ridiculous. Before I draw any other conclusions, I'll list the macro stats for both forwards and defence: for forwards, I went strictly based on offense, with goals, assists, and points. For defenders, I counted those stats, as well as award wins, splitting that into Labatte Trophy wins, and Other Trophy wins (while removing Jonsson/Messier wins from the latter category). Here are the averages that I came up with:

 

AVERAGE FORWARD INDUCTEE

555 GP / 350 G / 429 A / 779 P

 

AVERAGE DEFENDER INDUCTEE

558 GP / 175 G / 472 A / 647 P / 1.8 LABATTE WINS / 1.5 OTHER WINS

 

So, obviously averaging it out, you don't get the full picture of what it might take, since nobody plays 20 games less than a full season, I also calculated the averages for playing anywhere from 6-8 seasons, as I don't believe there's been an inductee with less than 6 seasons played, since the original era of the VHL. Breaking it down that way, things look even more daunting for potential additions to ballots:

 

HOF FORWARD AVERAGES

8 SEASONS: 576 GP / 363 G / 446 A / 809 P

7 SEASONS: 504 GP / 318 G / 390 A / 708 P

6 SEASONS: 432 P / 172 G / 334 A / 607 P

 

HOF DEFENDER AVERAGES

8 SEASONS: 576 GP / 181 G / 487 A / 668 P

7 SEASONS: 504 GP / 158 G / 426 A / 584 P

6 SEASONS: 432 GP / 135 g / 365 a / 501 P

 

I also looked at the median numbers for inductees, to see if that made a difference. For this part, I only looked at 7 and 8-season forwards, and 8-season defenders, as the data pool for 6-season forwards and 7-season defenders is too small for any meaningful data...

 

HOF FORWARD MEDIANS

8 SEASONS: 576 GP / 368 G / 439 A / 790 P

7 SEASONS: 504 GP / 315 G / 406 A / 717 P

 

HOF DEFENDER MEDIANS

8 SEASONS: 576 GP / 156 G / 487 / 643

 

What conclusions can be drawn from these numbers? Well, let's break it down by position...

 

FORWARDS

Since the move to these forums, only a single forward, who has played a full 8-seasons, has been inducted whilst accumulating under 730 points (Theo Axelsson with 719). Among 7-season forwards, only one has got in with less than 685 (McQueen with 607); and the only skater since S35 to get in with less than 7 seasons played has been Bismark Koenig, who scored 605 points in his abbreviated career (congrats to @BOOM™ on being the last of a now dead breed!).

 

In order to make it as a forward, you almost surely need to score well over 300 goals, or break the 500 assist barrier, as only 4 forwards to be inducted have done so without hitting either milestone, and none of them played a full 8-season career.

 

With scoring having gone down until very recently, the question becomes should the league hold to its standard of essentially 800 points in a full career, and at least 690 in a 7-season career. Of late, it has seemed that the league has been a little bit lax with inducting forwards, as the two lowest scoring forwards, and 3 of the lowest 5, have come in the past 6 inductions. Should this new standard stick, or should the standards of what makes a Hall of Famer be raised, as removing those 3 seasons from the calculations raises the average full career to 369 goals and 817 points.

 

DEFENDERS

As Victor has repeatedly stated, deciding if a defender has played a Hall of Fame career is extremely difficult. The most important stat, seemingly, is Labatte Wins, as most who have been inducted have won multiple Labatte Trophies as the league's overall best defenseman. In fact, the average of trophy wins is nearly 2 Labattes, as well as 1.5 Other Trophy wins, the latter of which is sure to increase with the introduction of the Valiq and Wylde Trophies for the league's best offensive and defensive defenseman, respectively.

 

Aside from that, it seems that induction is a bit of a moving target, and that perhaps the league has not seen many great defenders in its recent history. Of the 12 (yes, only 12 defenders have been inducted in nearly 30 seasons of Hall of Fame inductions) to get in since S35, only 3 have gotten in with less than a full 8-season career., and those 3 all performed exceptionally above what the average indicated as necessary to get in. Of full career defenders, Wylde's lack of assists and points drags down the averages needed, as his removal increases the average points from 643 to 678 for a full season. His lack of points seemingly brought up by his strong defensive play (as indicated by having a trophy named after him) and requisite 2 Labattes/ 1 Other trophy win.

 

While the question of lowering the standards will surely come up, it's difficult to say that the standards should be raised for defenseman looking to enter the Hall. Instead, I believe that a lack of quality defenders may play a large part in their general exclusion from the history books, as it has been perhaps a barren position until very recently. I do think that, perhaps, defenders should be looked at similar to forwards, where, if they come close enough to the average induction totals, they should be part of the discussion, as it seems that, generally, what gets defenders into the Hall is multiple Trophy wins. While it is to be expected that the top defenders of a generation should be getting into the Hall of Fame, forwards are not held to that same standard, and inducting only 2-3 defenders from each generation, while allowing forwards who never won MVPs or other major awards seems to be flawed logic, especially when their point totals are on the questionable side of qualifying.

 

What does this mean for the 2 players I was looking into?

Well, everyone knows that I am conceited as fuck, so the first player I was looking into was my own, Mats Johnsson. The second player is another Season 57 draftee, who will be much harder to argue for, as they made the switch from defender to forward, halfway through their career: Keaton Louth.

 

For Johnsson, the case is probably easier, though still a somewhat tough one. After a tough start to his career, with just 18 goals and 81 points, he is now on pace (using his last 3 seasons for pacing), to finish his career with approximately 135 goals and 630 points. That would place him right near the bottom of recent inductees, but his Trophy Case should be enough to push him in, as he is on track to win what should be his 2nd Labatte Trophy (the trophy was taken out of rotation, before being re-instated in S63), and 2nd straight Wylde, while also having a Valiq Trophy, and 2 Continental Cups to his name, with an impressive Playoff resume to boot.

 

With Louth, many will claim that his career numbers do not constitute Hall of Fame inclusion, as, even if he performs his average season as a forward, he will end with under 300 goals, and 700 points in a full 8 seasons. Therein lies the problem. As a forward, Louth has been one of the best in the league, with what would amount to a career totaling approximately 360 goals and nearly 800 points (averaging his 3-forward seasons, and then the projected finish as a forward multiplied by 1.7 to account for early career being less likely to average the same) had he started as a forward. His case is extremely interesting, as his 2-way play, as a forward, should be enough to off-set lower scoring totals. However, we will never know what a full career as forward would have done for Louth.

 

Personally, I'm of the belief that a strong season this year should put him firmly in the conversation, and perhaps into the Hall, as his numbers as a forward have been more than worthy of a Hall of Fame induction, as he is on pace to score over 200 goals and approximately 250 assists, in 4 seasons at the position.

 

@Beaviss

 

Claiming for Bailey - Weeks Ending: December 30, January 6, January 13

[Victor 10,527]

Definite semi here.

 

 

 

In regards to Louth, I understand where people are coming from but I feel like we would just be assessing a 4-season career at that point and that goes against the whole there's-been-one-6-season-player-inducted thing. He definitely needs to win some trophies asap.

[Quik 4,113]

1 hour ago, Victor said:

Definite semi here.

 

 

 

In regards to Louth, I understand where people are coming from but I feel like we would just be assessing a 4-season career at that point and that goes against the whole there's-been-one-6-season-player-inducted thing. He definitely needs to win some trophies asap.

 

The thing with Louth is that it'd be a fairly incredible 4-year career as a forward, with a decent career as a defender. His time as forward is better than the best 4-seasons of several inductees (assuming he is only average for himself this season). Obviously, some hardware in S64 would seriously increase his chances, but I'm of the mind that his stretch at forward is worthy of being an exception to the standard nominee.

 

Just to compare with AAR, who you've claimed should still get in based on his career as a d-man...AAR's time as a D-man, on a whole, was somewhat similar to MJ, where he's on the low end for points of a 6-season defender (I would argue that, while the average works out to 501 for 6-seasons, the median - if there were one - would be decently higher, and necessarily so to justify a short career induction) with just 447, and would only really make the cut because of the hardware. Especially because who knows how his last 2 seasons would have gone had he remained a defender, given the circumstances.

[Victor 10,527]

1 minute ago, Quik said:

 

The thing with Louth is that it'd be a fairly incredible 4-year career as a forward, with a decent career as a defender. His time as forward is better than the best 4-seasons of several inductees (assuming he is only average for himself this season). Obviously, some hardware in S64 would seriously increase his chances, but I'm of the mind that his stretch at forward is worthy of being an exception to the standard nominee.

  

Just to compare with AAR, who you've claimed should still get in based on his career as a d-man...AAR's time as a D-man, on a whole, was somewhat similar to MJ, where he's on the low end for points of a 6-season defender (I would argue that, while the average works out to 501 for 6-seasons, the median - if there were one - would be decently higher, and necessarily so to justify a short career induction) with just 447, and would only really make the cut because of the hardware. Especially because who knows how his last 2 seasons would have gone had he remained a defender, given the circumstances.

Well the thing is, the only situation like Louth's is your own with Bailey but there in a 4-season forward stint you won 3 Boulets (as well as getting a Labatte as defenceman). Louth didn't win anything but half a Stolzy on defence and so far just a Kanou as forward. I'm not hugely convinced.

 

Ay Ay Ron's career, as it ended, has similar stats to Jake Wylde (better even) and that's with a serious dive as forward. So we are already assessing the worst case scenario with him (whereas with Louth we are speculating on his first 4 seasons matching up to his last 4 seasons at least to some extent as a forward). Of course, the key with Ron for me is the 3 Labattes he would have won and 3 Beketovs (only matched by Low) that he did. So I don't think they are comparable situations at all really.

 

Naturally, if you add Louth to the ballot in S65, we can debate the shit out of this. At the moment I don't see it though.

[BOOM 8,401]

Great read. I think Koenig lucked out tbh. 

[Beaviss 4,949]

I had the pleasure of spending my first 4 seasons on a horrid Quebec team (other than the first season) which hurt my Defensive stats bad which caused me to fall out of every D of the year discussion.

[Victor 10,527]

Just now, Beaviss said:

I had the pleasure of spending my first 4 seasons on a horrid Quebec team (other than the first season) which hurt my Defensive stats bad which caused me to fall out of every D of the year discussion.

There's lots of players over the years who can say that though.

[Beketov 8,639]

13 hours ago, Victor said:

There's lots of players over the years who can say that though.

Without a terrible rookie season in Davos Holik would likely have the SO record and potentially have been considered earlier. Aside from underperforming in his first 2 seasons and playing against O’Malley the award hog Miller could have had HoF numbers, etc.

 

Its definitely a thing. For a HoF career you need good numbers every season or you need to make them up. Thompson has shit numbers my rookie year but sophomore was so big that I might still be okay. 4 seasons of mediocre numbers unfortunately kills most HoF bids. Hell, just a terrible rookie season nearly kept @Trifecta off the ballot.

[Victor 10,527]

1 hour ago, Beketov said:

Hell, just a terrible rookie season nearly kept @Trifecta off the ballot.

I'm still not sure he should be on the ballot - did anyone actually agree with him being on there?

[Beketov 8,639]

2 hours ago, Victor said:

I'm still not sure he should be on the ballot - did anyone actually agree with him being on there?

I think you were the only one that didn’t haha

[Victor 10,527]

5 minutes ago, Beketov said:

I think you were the only one that didn’t haha

Yeah, no one disagreed but doesn't look like anyone really agreed either. Need to make a mental note for S64.

[Quik 4,113]

W/E Jan 6th

[Quik 4,113]

W/E Jan 13