Rule Change Proposition

[Advantage 2,769]

I generally don't share much in the way of my opinion publicly anymore since I am no longer in the BOG and just talk to @Devise about most of my thoughts.  With that being said, I needed something to write about and both Devise and I were discussing something that was concerning to us.  Obviously we saw the league make a change in the update scale a while back and I think it has been mostly successful in regards to shaping the players.  With that being said, one thing has become quite clear over the last couple years, and is being magnified even more this year, and that is that goalies suck.  Steadily as goalies from the older eras retire, we have seen a clear decline in numbers as shown below.  I remember the days where a .917 SV% was considered quite poor and would rank you in the bottom half or even third in the league, and now it would put you as one of the best.  

 

S61 Goalie Stats

Norris Stropko - .932 SV%, 1.64 GAA

Marcus King - .928 SV%, 1.75 GAA

Ike Arkander - .925 SV%, 1.74 GAA

Shawn Brodeur - .920 SV%, 1.86 GAA

Arvid Aamo - .918 SV%, 2.87 GAA

Roger Sterling - .917 SV%, 3.53 GAA

Tristan Iseult - .906 SV%, 2.73 GAA

---------------------------------------

Average - .920 SV%, 2.30 GAA

 

S62 Goalie Stats

Norris Stropko - .928 SV%, 1.83 GAA

Tristan Iseult - .917 SV%, 2.33 GAA

Roger Sterling - .915 SV%, 3.40 GAA

Shawn Brodeur - .913 SV%, 2.30 GAA

Johnny Carlson - .913 SV%, 3.10 GAA

Ismond Kingfisher - .908 SV%, 3.62 GAA

Arvid Aamo - .899 SV%, 3.51 GAA

--------------------------------------

Average - .913 SV%, 2.87 GAA

 

S63 Goalie Stats

Tristan Iseult - .924 SV%, 2.01 GAA

Ismond Kingfisher - .923 SV%, 3.26 GAA

Roger Sterling - .920 SV%, 2.34 GAA

Alexander Pepper - .918 SV%, 3.28 GAA

Kallis Kriketers - .915 SV%, 2.24 GAA

Norris Stropko - .915 SV%, 2.32 GAA

Shawn Brodeur - .904 SV%, 3.37 GAA

Arvid Aamo - .900 SV%, 3.95 GAA

-----------------------------------------

Average - .914 SV%, 2.84 GAA

 

S64 Goalie Stats

Norris Stropko - .930 SV%, 2.52 GAA

Alexander Pepper - .920 SV%, 2.53 GAA

Ismond Kingfisher - .919 SV%, 2.98 GAA

Finn Davison - .918 SV%, 3.30 GAA

Tristan Iseult - .916 SV%, 2.52 GAA

Rhett Stoffiday - .915 SV%, 3.33 GAA

Brick Wahl - .914 SV%, 2.73 GAA

Kallis Kriketers - .913 SV%, 2.30 GAA

Roger Sterling - .912 SV%, 2.64 GAA

--------------------------------------------

Average - .917 SV%, 2.76 GAA

 

S65 Goalie Stats

Roger Sterling - .918 SV%, 2.48 GAA

Ismond Kingfisher - .914 SV%, 2.71 GAA

Alexander Pepper - .911 SV%, 2.55 GAA

Johnny Carlson - .911 SV%, 2.70 GAA

Brick Wahl - .910 SV%, 3.04 GAA

Finn Davison - .907 SV%, 3.11 GAA

Tristan Iseult - .907 SV%, 2.81 GAA

Kallis Kriketers - .906 SV%, 2.52 GAA

Justin Cole - .899 SV%, 4.13 GAA

----------------------------------------------

Average - .909 SV%, 2.89 GAA

 

So what gives? Despite a minor uptick in numbers last season, we are seeing some of the worst goalie numbers in history.  Could it be that we just have too many young goalies who are underdeveloped in the league? Perhaps.  Lets take a ,look at the TPE numbers:

 

 

Alexander Pepper - 791 TPE

Ismond Kingfisher - 767 TPE

Kallis Kriketers - 763 TPE

Tristan Iseult - 758 TPE

Roger Sterling - 691 TPE

Brick Wahl - 544 TPE

Johnny Carlson - 464 TPE

Finn Davison - 464 TPE

Justin Cole - 173 TPE

 

Aside Cole, I don't really think TPE is ultimately an issue for the other starting goaltenders in the VHL.  While there are no 1000+ TPE goaltenders, we have four above 700 and another right near it...numbers that used to be good enough to max almost all, if not all, the goalie attributes.  While we don't necessarily want that amount of TPE to max goalie stats, it's pretty clear it has an effect even by just looking at Pepper, who despite having the most TPE does not have a single attribute past 94.

 

Also, what looking at these numbers from the past few years has shown me is that Stropko should have easily won MVP last season.  Not to bring up that wound again for @Bushito but his dominance of a position that has taken such a sharp decline over the years, was very impressive and certainly a bigger deal than anything any skater accomplished last season.  

 

Ultimately, this post is to propose a thought and I think we should perhaps scale back the update scale slightly for goaltenders.  Not significantly or anything, but I do think it should be a little easier to max an attribute than it is for skaters, given that there are six incredibly important attributes for goaltenders and another that they still have to add to.  I think it's great to see some better offensive numbers, but I am worried about our goaltenders when I know so many of the members with goalies have become discouraged (I know of at least three who are entering prime or are young who are already very concerned and talking retirement).  While I don't think it will ever be an epidemic where we don't have enough goaltenders to fill the slots on our teams, I am concerned about longevity at a position that in the past already could be depressing for so many members and is seemingly even more-so now.  Look no further than the current statistics of so many goaltenders who are north of 700 TPE.  Kriketers...Kingfisher...Iseult...all struggling significantly and putting up statistics that in the past, would be considered nothing short of atrocious for a well-developed player.

 

Give me your thoughts.  Is it too early to pull the trigger on this? Should we make the change? Are these just a few outlier seasons?

 

@Beketov @Quik @Will

 

 

 

 

 

[Devise 4,475]

My initial gut reaction on it as I told you privately after looking at team overalls, and I'm sure you can look at team wide scoring across the era's too and it'll be on pace to be up or one of our higher ones. It's just so many good players right now, and there will always be more forwards/d than any other position and we've always been such a dominated league. The harsher update scale has absolutely worked well for skaters, I think it actually has led to a bit more diversity in builds, we see seperate award battles being fought out for both forwards and D. The three D award switch actually has worked in that regard.

 

But yeah goalies have taken a hit because of it. On top of giving them an easier update scale I think to balance it out you could also make depreciation slightly harsher. That way goalies may cap faster, but at that point saving for depreciation makes sense because becoming an elite instead of just a good goalie would be about maintaining those higher stats not just getting there. But at least this way, in the early season it's easier for goalies who do hit 700+ to you know, be as elite as they probably should be? A forward at that range dominates the league, so yeah there should be some comparable there right haha. 

[Beaviss 4,949]

Update the sim engine and lower the overall on players stats closer to the high 80's

[Spade18 1,302]

#makegoaliesgreatagain

[Bushito 1,945]

I don’t even care about awards here @Advantage and neither do many other people. Last season proved its rigged for buddies and anyone trying to tell me shit like they aren’t friends with so and so is bullshitting, the whole league knows it after that Cast award last season

[Fire Tortorella 2,653]

Just a counterpoint - Why do we have to look at these goalies the same way we looked at previous goalies stats? What were great goalie stats in the NHL coming out of the lockout look very different than what they looked like 5 years ago, and still look different than they do today.

 

With those TPE numbers, I think we also have to keep in mind the switch to the 12 TPE/week cap. 

[.sniffuM 1,741]

7 minutes ago, Bushito said:

I don’t even care about awards here @Advantage and neither do many other people. Last season proved its rigged for buddies and anyone trying to tell me shit like they aren’t friends with so and so is bullshitting, the whole league knows it after that Cast award last season

 

Umm... what? I was in the awards committee last season and I can guarantee you there was no (public) bias on the vote. The debate was mainly Thompson vs. Cast, your name was brought up once or twice but I think people were mainly swept up in discerning how close Thompson and Cast were to each other. Maybe your season got glossed over a bit, in my eyes goalie stats weren't atrocious last season so your season didn't really stand out enough for me to fight for you to win the award. Historically, has the goalie position not proven to require an outstanding, historic performance to win the MVP? Really the only comparable season I can see to Stopko where the goalie won the award is Kanou in S21 (other seasons had lower save percentages but better GAAs, much better records and many more shutouts). Not to mention, a longtime Wrangler, omgitshim, was running the award's committee last season, why would he possibly want to rig things against you?

 

Maybe instead of crying conspiracy you apply Occam's Razor here and realize there isn't some grand plot to go against you.

[hedgehog337 3,480]

one thing fo sure, current goalies will have a very hard time to get inducted into HoF.

 

and I'm still mad cause I'm still stuck in S50's and expecting Kallis numbers to be 0.925+

[Advantage 2,769]

27 minutes ago, hedgehog337 said:

one thing fo sure, current goalies will have a very hard time to get inducted into HoF.

 

and I'm still mad cause I'm still stuck in S50's and expecting Kallis numbers to be 0.925+

Maybe.  I would think the BOG would look at HOF voting as a by era thing where awards may reign a bit more supreme in differentiating the best from the rest.

[Tagger 2,722]

For me, I think we'd have to see what a 99 att goalie would be capable of in this era (I know Stopko was there last season, but the skating talent has gotten significantly better even since then) before we could begin to say that this would get goalie stats back in line. My concern is that if players on 93's and 94's are getting save percentages like .914% near the top of the goalie standings, is a goalie with 99 going to have a significant improvement on top of that? Honestly if this were to become a concern (which I'm personally not really sure it will, different eras should mean different evaluations of stats), I would think it's more likely upping the update scale for skaters would be closer to having the effect you'd be after than lowering the update scale for goalies. 

[Beaviss 4,949]

1 hour ago, hedgehog337 said:

0.825+

 

fixed

[hedgehog337 3,480]

18 minutes ago, Beaviss said:

 

fixed

 

your editing skills hit a new bottom

 

just like your team against Davos today

[Bushito 1,945]

3 hours ago, .sniffuM said:

 

Umm... what? I was in the awards committee last season and I can guarantee you there was no (public) bias on the vote. The debate was mainly Thompson vs. Cast, your name was brought up once or twice but I think people were mainly swept up in discerning how close Thompson and Cast were to each other. Maybe your season got glossed over a bit, in my eyes goalie stats weren't atrocious last season so your season didn't really stand out enough for me to fight for you to win the award. Historically, has the goalie position not proven to require an outstanding, historic performance to win the MVP? Really the only comparable season I can see to Stopko where the goalie won the award is Kanou in S21 (other seasons had lower save percentages but better GAAs, much better records and many more shutouts). Not to mention, a longtime Wrangler, omgitshim, was running the award's committee last season, why would he possibly want to rig things against you?

 

Maybe instead of crying conspiracy you apply Occam's Razor here and realize there isn't some grand plot to go against you.

Cast was like the 8-10th best forward. My difference in save percentage between me and the second best goalie was better than the difference from 8th to 2nd. Not to mention Toronto wouldn’t even be in the playoffs without Stopko. Pretty MVP to me. But hey don’t take my word for it, last season was the worst awards I’ve ever seen here, the discord proved that.

[.sniffuM 1,741]

1 minute ago, Bushito said:

Cast was like the 8-10th best forward. My difference in save percentage between me and the second best goalie was better than the difference from 8th to 2nd. Not to mention Toronto wouldn’t even be in the playoffs without Stopko. Pretty MVP to me. But hey don’t take my word for it, last season was the worst awards I’ve ever seen here, the discord proved that.

 

Cast was third in goals, fifth in points, and had the best shooting percentage among qualified players by nearly a full percentage point. He had only 8 less goals than Thompson (again, the main candidate going against him in the debate) on around 60% of the shot attempts. Stopko had a great season, but again, historically goalies win MVP when they have a near all-time season. Otherwise the MVP race would be dominated by goalies year in and year out.

 

You won the Shaw, because you deserved it, like all the other times you deserved it and won. You won the Kanou, because you deserve it. While I give no weight to the 'Toronto wouldn’t even be in the playoffs without Stopko' statement (unless you test sim them with another goalie, you can't quantify that), it's obvious Toronto's subpar roster wouldn't have won a championship without Stopko. To sit here and say we rigged MVP voting against you because people like someone else more is asinine and nonsensical.

[Advantage 2,769]

4 hours ago, .sniffuM said:

 Stopko had a great season, but again, historically goalies win MVP when they have a near all-time season. Otherwise the MVP race would be dominated by goalies year in and year out.

I mean not really..in last 24 seasons there have been 7 goalie wins for MVP.  Twice they finished with sub .927 save percentages and two others were nearly identical ones. All those years the goalies didn’t dominate the voting statistically like Stropko did either.

[.sniffuM 1,741]

26 minutes ago, Advantage said:

I mean not really..in last 24 seasons there have been 7 goalie wins for MVP.  Twice they finished with sub .927 save percentages and two others were nearly identical ones. All those years the goalies didn’t dominate the voting statistically like Stropko did either.

 

Looking at those last 24 seasons, I'll address the two you mentioned: Szatkowski in S41, Brookside in S42. All the others boasted ridiculous numbers from a wins, save percentage and/or shutout perspective so to me my point stands (except for Apollo Skye in S53, which in looking at the numbers I don't really agree with). In these cases, they're both arguably warranted as well. From an individual standpoint, Szatkowski goalied a Riga team that was third in overall in their conference to a conference win in the regular season. That Riga team had one player in the league in the top 10 in points and two in the top 20. I'd imagine MVP sentiment would've been less in goalie favor if the top two players in the league weren't both from Quebec, Aksel Thomassen and Bruno Wolf. Then Tom Slaughter played on a loaded NY team, surprised Nykvist didn't get more love on a shallow Calgary team. All in all though, enough quality at the top yields enough reason to give the goalie the MVP.

 

Brookside is easily the dodgiest case, both from a numbers standpoint and from a situation standpoint. Cologne was the best overall in Europe but finished in second, way below Helsinki. In this case, the best point production he got from a teammate was Robin Gow, who was 13th at 91 points but only spent 23 games with Cologne after the trade deadline. Of the players to spend the full season in Cologne, the top players in points were 20th, 30th, 35th and 47th. So the team disappointed across the board but Brookside kept them in it despite that. Then factor in that the only 100+ point scorers were the aforementioned Quebec duo and five New York Americans, and it can easily boil down to another case of the vote getting split across the top teams being the most loaded. I can absolutely understand anyone who disputes this MVP, although I personally would probably just barely vote Brookside here.

 

Then you have Stopko, who had two of the three top point producers in the league on the first line of his team. Although the placements on the rankings thin out from there, with the next being 18th followed by 29th and 31st, having two of the top three point producers in the league takes away a lot of the appearance that he 'did everything himself', from a statistical standpoint. Going based off of that, Stopko should have gotten more discussion than I remember him getting, but I still stand by my ultimate vote of Cast. For Bush to just say I blindly voted for Alfie out of love for his dick or whatever is way over the line, I took my job seriously and I'm pissed to have my name dragged through the mud after establishing what I feel to be an honest reputation in these leagues.