Who's Here to Stay? - An Expansion Draft Overview [1/2]

[Renomitsu 930]

(Unofficial) VHLM Scouting Agency^TM, USA – We’ve got an expansion draft on our hands, and a few key players and picks are for sale. A huge S66 and burgeoning S67 draft class make the Entry and Dispersal drafts a pretty big event, but VHLM GMs have a monumental task on their hands: who do they protect, and who’s most likely to find themselves on a brand-new team come S66?

 

We’re going to take a quik look across the VHLM and see who (and what picks) GMs might want to keep under wraps, as well as who’s most likely to walk.

 

Halifax 21^st

GM: McWolf

Most Likely Protectees:

(No Firsts to Protect)

(S65) Chase, Stand-up Goalie, 198 TPE*

(S66) Rhye Tyr, Offensive Defenseman, 177 TPE*

(S64) Anton Edvin, Two-Way Right Wing, 140 TPE

(S66) Nacho, All-Around Forward, 125 TPE

S67 HFX 2nd

*dependent on VHL trajectory

 

The 21^st are in the thick of a playoff race that will see them face the Minnesota Storm in the finals – understandably, they’ve got a lot of players who are headed up to the VHL regardless of what happens. Basaraba Moose, Dimitri Volosenkov, Jet Jaguar, Julius Freeman, and Teagan Glover are players from the S64 draft through this season’s upcoming draft who must transition to the majors next season; they’ve got at least three or four that will make an immediate impact on the league. That leaves only a handful of players that they’re almost guaranteed to keep – and with no S66 firsts, they have to reach down pretty far and hope for a number of good signees after the draft. Several of their good S66 non-VHL players like Edward Vigneault will be headed into the dispersal and entry drafts. The question then is, who does that leave?

 

Rhye Tyr @Plate will probably be McWolf’s highest priority pick – Tyr’s agent just made a return and he’s effectively at the TPE cap. The player’s sudden improvement makes him a high-priority pick in the VHL Entry Draft – and you can expect Tyr to be a sure-fire pick by the early second round (possibly even the first). He’ll likely spend another season in the minors, crushing the competition before uncapping in the S67 offseason – or even being called up late in the season if his VHL team is making a playoff push. The same may apply to S65 prospect Chase, but he’s quite likely to head off to the pros next season since he’s at 198 TPE. This leaves Halifax with very few options next season, but some high-priority picks may be S66 forward Nacho, who will spend another season in theminors, and some older draftees like Anton Edvin. Nathan McKinnon may be headed to the waiver list, as he’s in his third season of his minor league rights contract.

 

The 21^st are all-in on this season though, as they made a few trades with the Philadelphia Reapers and Yukon Rush that sent away a multitude of S66 and S67 picks. They only possess Philadelphia’s S66 third and sixth round picks, and while those will likely be at the top of each round, having two picks isn’t ideal in the league’s deepest draft in a long time. It's possible that they'll elect to protect their S67 2nd or the S66 PHI 3rd - or both, espcially if Chase and/or Rhye Tyr go pro. That, at best, leaves expansion teams with a S67 third-rounder.

 

Expansion Effect: Low/Medium

 

 

Houston Bulls

GM: Sonnet

Most Likely Protectees:

(No Firsts to Protect)

(S65) Milan Griffin, Sniper/Two-Way Left Wing, 161 TPE

(S65) Callum MacElroy, All-Around Right Wing, 158 TPE

(S65) Fylo GIbbles, Offensive Defenseman, 136 TPE

S66 HOU 3rd

S67 HOU 2nd

 

 

In spite of being a S65 Expansion Team, the Bulls have a decent selection of prior draft picks to save for later – especially since their rights don’t expire for the next couple of seasons. Off to the VHL are Jack Lynch, Jerry Garcia, Kari Jurri, Maximilian Kirbsson, Viktor Kozlov , Owen May, and Ludvig Sederstrom – six members of an incredible team that have aspirations of pulling off the impossible in the playoffs this season after forcing a game 7 against Halifax with an overtime thriller just a few hours ago. They’ll also be losing core members in Beau Buefordsson, Rhys Chism, and Samuel Sparrow – all of which will be entering the S66 Dispersal & Entry drafts. Frankly, that doesn’t leave them with very much – they have a few strong S65 minor leaguers that will form the basis of a decent Bulls team next season, but they’ll be scrambling for new players like Halifax come next season.

 

Houston’s draft is more promising than Halifax’s, with third and fifth-through-seventh round picks for S66 – but that still means they’ll be looking at primarily 100-130 TPE players (optimistically) for their first couple of picks. Like Halifax, they have pretty slim current player pickings after their protected players: expansion teams will probably have to take 30-50 TPE players if they want anything from the Bulls. What's far more likely is teams opt for Houston's S67 3rd - or if they're desperate for immediate success, maybe their S66 5th.

 

Expansion Effect: Very Low

 

 

Las Vegas Aces

GM: Jubo07 (S65) => oilmandan (S66)

Most Likely Protectees:

(No Firsts to Protect)

(S66) Jordan Joshua Tonn, Offensive Center, 156 TPE

(S64) Rocky LaGarza, All-Around Right Wing, 175 TPE

(S66) Luke Derion, Butterfly Goalie, 112 TPE

S66 OTT 3rd

(S65) Benson Van Roosen, Offensive Defenseman, 90 TPE

 

Las Vegas is another playoff team that has relatively few resources left after their protection list, particularly because they’re losing at least seven players to the Entry Draft – Charlie Paddywagon, David Harrison, Josh Harris, Kyle Sabertooth, Mikko Aaltonen, Mitch Matthews, and Tyler Barabash Jr.. The Aces had their season end just four days ago after a crushing double-overtime loss against Yukon, where they had a 3-1 lead after the first period and saw it slowly slip away over the next two in spite of a 58-39 shot imbalance in their favor. Many of their S65 players that provided them depth – or a starter in the case of netminder Kolur Bjoernsson and defenseman Duncan Jeffers– will be headed to the Dispersal and Entry Drafts – but thankfully the Aces have enough depth to retain five solid players, as shown above.

 

Like the 21^st and Bulls, the Aces are limited in their draft picks, with a few other teams’ 3^rd-5^th round picks in S66 (OTT 3^rd, SSK 4^th, and PHI 5^th), so while they’re able to retain some acceptable players, they’ll be largely reliant on new signees for next season too. Some of the more desperate expansion teams may try to claim 50-70 TPE wingers Willy memelander or Micheal Rasmussen, but it’s more likely that they try to take Vegas’s 3^rd or 4^th rounders in S66 or S67 before that.

 

Expansion Effect: Low/Medium

 

 

Minnesota Storm

GM: Eudaldkp

Most Likely Protectees:

(Automatic) S66 LVA 1^st

(Automatic) S67 MIN 1^st

(S66) Andreas Sundell, Playmaking Defenseman, 128 TPE

(S65) Donat Szita, Offensive Defenseman, 110 TPE

(S65) Dorian Mason, Passing Center, 92 TPE

(S66) Wendy Kandee Cain, Butterfly (?) Goalie, 152 TPE

(S64) Divaani Sohva, Butterfly (?) Goalie, 125 TPE // S66 MIN 3rd

 

The Storm are the favorites to win the title this year – though the winner of the 21^st/Bulls series will give them a run for their money – and they will lose a whole host of players to the VHL this season, among them Aron Nielsen, Bert Meyers, Chico Smeb, Denver Wolfe, Matteo, Matthew Kai, Orion Slade, Shane Mars, and Sven Hitz – more than any other team in the league. In fact, they’ve enough talent to easily field two lines of capped (or nearly-capped) forwards and defensemen, a claim that can’t be said even by other playoff teams. They’ll be losing Codrick Past and Mat Tocco, two key depth pieces, to the Dispersal/Entry Drafts, but even after all of these players go, they still may not have enough protection slots to hit all of their 80-120 TPE players.

 

They may consider keeping two goalies in Wendy ‘Kandee’ Cain and Divaani Sohva, but Minnesota is in a uniquely unfortunate situation with these two: Cain may be called up even before hitting 200 TPE next season if there’s a lack of quality keepers in the majors (especially with the Nighthawks entering the fray). Further, Sohva’s junior rights only last one more season – so the Storm will have to look for another answer at goalie if they want a long-term acceptable answer. They’ll likely draft a one-and-done player with Las Vegas’s first-rounder – possibly taking Codrick Past if he plans on staying down in the minors next season – but the incredible depth they had this season won’t be around for the next one. We'll most likely see the S66 3rd rounder or Divaani Sohva leave, depending on if GM Eudaldkp wants to try to turn Sohva into trade bait.

 

Expansion Draft Effect: Low/Medium

 

 

Ottawa Lynx

GM: Esso2264

Most Likely Protectees:

(Automatic) S66 OTT 1^st

(Automatic) S67 HOU 1^st 

S67 OTT 1^st 

(S65) Don Draper, All-Around Right Wing, 163 TPE

(S65) Pekka Pouta, Hybrid Goalie, 147 TPE

(S66) Hunter Wagner, All-Around Left Wing, 138 TPE

S66 HOU 2nd // S66 OTT 2nd // (S66) Blake Laughton, Scoring Left Wing, 113 TPE

 

The Lynx found themselves prioritizing future seasons over this one, as a late slide in the last third of the season put them at home during the playoffs. It’s actually unlikely that this team sees any of their players leave for the pros with this upcoming draft, as they sent away Codrick Past and Jack Lynch for depth players and picks. Sadly, they’ll lose a starter in Aleksander Rodriguez to the Dispersal Draft – but they retain Hunter Wagner and a pair of high-quality S65 prospects in Pekka Pouta and Don Draper. They have the option of retaining the second of their two second-rounders or S66 winger Blake Laughton – and that ends up being a matter of whether they are looking for a likely one-and-done or seeing if Laughton will be called up in the middle of next season.

 

The Lynx are in a good position draft-wise, as they have five picks in the first four rounds (including two seconds and a first this season) over the next two drafts. They'll most likely end up having one of their second-rounders taken from them, unless they want to lose a 130+ TPE veteran.

 

Expansion Draft Effect: Medium-High

 

 

Philadelphia Reapers

GM: BladeMaiden

Most Likely Protectees:

(Automatic) S66 PHI 1st

(Automatic) S66 HFX 1st

S67 PHI 1st

S67 SSK 1st

S67 HFX 1st

S67 LVA 1st

S66 PHI 2nd // (S66) Sunny Burst, Stand-Up Goalie, 87 TPE

 

Well, the Philadelphia Reapers are slated for an incredible S66 draft following a miserable Season 65. They might protect picks with all five of their selections, but I’ve listed netminder Sunny Burst as an option depending on how he’s communicated to his GM about activity. The Reapers may possibly lose a 2nd round pick to Expansion – but since they can only lose one asset, that’s the worst damage they can take. Philly is the only team that has a draft pick list that you might actually have to scroll through to get all the way down, and with plenty of 100ish TPE prospects, they’re likely to have a deep, deep team next season. You can probably rest easy, current Reapers – new GMs will probably hazard a 2nd round draft pick rather than taking <100 TPE players – but that gives you a chance to grow on what should be an promising S66/S67 team.

 

In spite of being an expansion team, the Reapers have a trade list that runs as long as any current expansion team – and that shouldn’t be a surprise with their list of picks. BladeMaiden has the most work to do out of any GM this upcoming draft, with a whopping eleven picks in the first four rounds in BOTH S66 and S67. She’ll have to carefully navigate around current active players and draftees, however. The main Expansion Draft question BladeMaiden has to answer is if she wants to keep Burst or not - after that, she has to do her homework on our S66 Dispersal draftees.

 

Expansion Draft Effect: High

 

 

Saskatoon Wild

GM: Peace

Most Likely Protectees:

(Automatic) S66 SSK 1st

(Automatic) S66 HOU 1st

S66 MIN 1st

S66 SSK 2nd

(S65) Brian Strong, All-Around Right Wing, 155 TPE

(S66) John Perdue, Two-Way Left Wing, 135 TPE // Hans Gruber* // Rusty Shackleford* // Nethila Dissanayake*

*dependent on VHL trajectory

 

The Wild are probably in the roughest position of any team facing the Expansion Draft, as their combination of draft picks – six picks in the first three rounds – and previously-drafted talent like those listed above is the deepest. It’s entirely likely that Saskatoon loses a second-rounder or (depending on who goes pro), maybe even Hans Gruber, Rusty Shackleford, or Nethila Dissanayake, each 170 TPE players in their own right. The worst-case scenario is Gruber, Shackleford, and Dissanayake both stay down, in which case John Perdue and Brian Strong are up for grabs and Peace has to make a decision on whether to keep a potential early call-up or a longer-term player. In the best case, one or none of his high-tier prospects leave for the VHL and Peace gets to keep all of his top picks AND prospects without a fuss.

 

Having several starters and depth players like Anthony Amberback, Apollo Hackett, Cody Parkey, Edgar Tannahill, and Emil Passerelli lost to the draft will be sad for the Wild – but they’re in prime position to re-draft some of these up-and-coming players, and Peace will have plenty of inside information about their professional league plans. But Peace’s job with his protection list and draft will be nearly as difficult – if not more difficult – than Philly GM BladeMaiden’s. It's entirely likely they send off a high second round pick in favor of firsts and a few high-quality, mid-100 TPE players.

 

Expansion Draft Effect: High

 

 

Yukon Rush

GM: Josh.

Most Likely Protectees:

(Automatic) S66 YUK 1st

(Automatic) S67 YUK 1st

(S66) Valeri Morozov, Scoring Defenseman, 184 TPE*

(S66) Clayton Park, Butterfly Goalie, 166 TPE

(S66) Richard Hejtsel, Defensive Defenseman, 123 TPE

S66 YUK 3rd

S67 YUK 2nd

*dependent on VHL trajectory

 

After a heart-breaking, series-ending loss to Minnesota, the Rush are back to the drawing board. Like the other playoff teams, they have a host of players heading off to the pros – among them Hunter Hearst Helmsley, Anthony Matthews, and Arnor Sigurdsson. It’s also entirely possible that they lose winger Valeri Morozov and Clayton Park, with the former more likely than the latter because of his 183 TPE. However, as with Wendy Cain, Clayton Park may be forced to ascend to the professional league early because of a mixture of expansion/lack of goalie depth. This leaves GM Josh with a pretty clear-cut set of players to retain, as there isn’t a whole lot of depth on the Yukon squad after their sure-fire major leaguers.

 

Yukon may end up giving up the Halifax third-rounder in order to retain Richard Hejtsel – but if Morozov is definitely going pro the Rush might just give up their 4th-rounder or prospect Titus Stone. The Rush are in a decent spot draft-wise, but they'll probably have to give up an S66 or S67 3rd-rounder to the expansion.

 

Expansion Draft Effect: Medium

 

(Uh... when I claim this, I'll let you know? 2,500+ words)

Edited April 14, 2019 by Renomitsu
fixing re: expansion draft rules

[Gustav 6,093]

Don't know why you never applied to be GM but you're more informed on the expansion draft than I am. 

Gotta love expansion teams though ahem Mississauga

[Renomitsu 930]

7 minutes ago, GustavMattias said:

Don't know why you never applied to be GM but you're more informed on the expansion draft than I am. 

Gotta love expansion teams though ahem Mississauga

Hah, I wish I could have - but I don't have the time for it for most of this year! I'm also not the best personnel motivator, so I'm not ideal for GMing.

You'll do well, I'm positive; but you'll be doing more work than me when the playoffs end!

[Renomitsu 930]

Posting here for week ending 6/9 claim

[Renomitsu 930]

6/16 claim (2 of 4)

[Renomitsu 930]

6/23 claim (3 of 4)

[Renomitsu 930]

6/30 claim (4 of 4)

[TheLastOlympian07 2,388]

Review

For someone who didn't care for the VHLM Expansion draft, reading this article made me care. Another great read from you. Good stuff. Always love reviewing your articles.