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VHLM S68 Advanced Metrics [1/2]


DMaximus
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VHLM S68 Advanced Metrics

I wrote a similar post for the VHL here. Here I’ll be presenting the same Corsi, Fenwick, and PDO statistics for the VHLM. You can read my previous post for a brief description of what these advance metrics are or just ask here if you have any questions.

 

Here are the current standings when I ran the report.

 

Team

GP

W

L

OTL

P

GF

GA

Diff

Streak

Minnesota

21

15

3

3

33

76

44

32

W1

Houston

20

15

5

0

30

65

37

28

W6

Las Vegas

21

14

6

1

29

75

53

22

W2

Yukon

21

12

8

1

25

57

53

4

L1

Mexico City

21

11

8

2

24

54

58

-4

W1

Mississauga

21

11

8

2

24

67

61

6

L1

Halifax

21

11

9

1

23

77

79

-2

W1

San Diego

20

9

10

1

19

71

79

-8

W3

Philadelphia

20

6

11

3

15

66

79

-13

L2

Saskatoon

21

6

12

3

15

60

89

-29

L2

Ottawa

21

4

14

3

11

48

84

-36

L5

 

 

Corsi

CorsiFor is the shot attempts taken by your team

CorsiAgainst is the shot attempts allowed by your team

Corsi is CorsiFor minus CorsiAgainst. A positive number means you’ve taken more shot attempts than allowed. Negative means you’ve allowed more than taken.

CorsiForPct takes your team’s CorsiFor number and uses it to make a percentage of the total shot attempts in the game. A CorsiFor% of over 55% is elite.

Team Name

Average of CorsiFor

Average of CorsiAgainst

Average of Corsi

Average of CorsiForPct

Halifax 21st

49.905

45.429

4.476

51.740

Houston Bulls

47.650

35.350

12.300

57.482

Las Vegas Aces

55.333

37.905

17.429

59.426

Mexico City Kings

44.857

56.476

-11.619

44.553

Minnesota Storm

46.905

40.762

6.143

53.658

Mississauga Hounds

45.762

45.571

0.190

50.007

Ottawa Lynx

32.000

53.524

-21.524

37.964

Philadelphia Reapers

43.950

44.700

-0.750

49.375

San Diego Marlins

57.500

51.350

6.150

52.135

Saskatoon Wild

45.667

55.476

-9.810

45.217

Yukon Rush

46.762

48.905

-2.143

48.871

Grand Total

46.899

46.899

0.000

50.000

 

 

Fenwick

The exact same as Corsi, just that shots that are blocked are not counted as an attempt.

 

Row Labels

Average of FenwickFor

Average of FenwickAgainst

Average of Fenwick

Average of FenwickForPct

Halifax 21st

42.762

39.190

3.571

51.692

Houston Bulls

40.350

30.450

9.900

56.905

Las Vegas Aces

46.952

32.095

14.857

59.639

Mexico City Kings

38.238

47.619

-9.381

44.724

Minnesota Storm

40.571

35.333

5.238

53.724

Mississauga Hounds

39.429

38.476

0.952

50.376

Ottawa Lynx

26.571

45.857

-19.286

37.343

Philadelphia Reapers

37.700

38.250

-0.550

49.481

San Diego Marlins

48.300

44.700

3.600

51.328

Saskatoon Wild

39.905

47.190

-7.286

45.828

Yukon Rush

40.476

41.476

-1.000

49.329

Grand Total

40.088

40.088

0.000

50.000

 

 

PDO

 

Row Labels

Average of PDO

Halifax 21st

97.969

Houston Bulls

103.698

Las Vegas Aces

98.205

Mexico City Kings

101.133

Minnesota Storm

105.301

Mississauga Hounds

98.962

Ottawa Lynx

99.841

Philadelphia Reapers

98.231

San Diego Marlins

99.470

Saskatoon Wild

96.558

Yukon Rush

100.697

Grand Total

100.000

 

 

20 games played is a little more than a quarter of the season. This means the data here is a relatively small sample set that may be heavily skewed by strength of schedule. The other caveat I’d like to add is I run these numbers for the entire game, not just when it’s even strength. That may skew the numbers as well.

 

With the caveats written above in mind, some interesting details appear through these numbers.

-          San Diego is leading the league in shot attempts per game, but they are 4th overall in goals for. More time is needed to tell if they are just a poor shooting team, missing the net or serving up easy saves or if they’ve just started the season running into better than average goalies. They allow the 4th most shot attempts against, which explains their 4th most goals for and their current position of 8th place in the standings. As the season goes on, look for San Diego to rise in the standings and soundly make the playoffs.

-          Mississagua may be the perfect measuring stick for all other VHLM teams to judge themselves against. They are almost exactly at a 0 for Corsi and Fenwick totals and they are smack dab in the middle of the standings. If you’re wondering if your team is going to finish in the top half or bottom half of the standings, check your team’s record against Mississauga.

-          Minnesota’s PDO of 105.301 indicated they have been extremely lucky this season. Or it could be their top-notch goal keeping. Their 3rd best Corsi and Fenwick numbers indicate they are definitely a top tier team, but their luck may run out at the wrong time.

-          Mexico City’s numbers should be a major worry to all their supporters. They have a slightly elevated PDO at 101.133, but more concerning is their 2nd worst Corsi and Fenwick percentage, with only bottom-dwellers Ottawa worse than them. Expect Mexico to drop in the standings and maybe miss the playoffs entirely.

-          Even though they are currently in 3rd place, Las Vegas appears to be the best overall team. They have a 59%+ Corsi and Fenwick percentage. That puts them in the high elite category. Smart money would start placing bets on the Aces to win it all.

Edited by DMaximus
added over 300 words to claim as a media spot.
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Review

Okay, so I'm still learning hockey in general, let alone advanced statistics, but it seems as though Fenwick is a more defense-dependent measure of shot quality than Corsi (as blocked shots aren't counted with Fenwick - thus a large difference in Corsi & Fenwick indicates excellent defense??), and Corsi can be used to measure goalie workload/approximate time of possession. At any rate, as I try to understand what exactly these stand for from a complete novice's perspective, I'm enjoying these articles you write. Thanks for making an attempt to explain them!

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  • DollarAndADream changed the title to VHLM S68 Advanced Metrics [1/2]
On 9/28/2019 at 6:18 PM, Renomitsu said:

Review

Okay, so I'm still learning hockey in general, let alone advanced statistics, but it seems as though Fenwick is a more defense-dependent measure of shot quality than Corsi (as blocked shots aren't counted with Fenwick - thus a large difference in Corsi & Fenwick indicates excellent defense??), and Corsi can be used to measure goalie workload/approximate time of possession. At any rate, as I try to understand what exactly these stand for from a complete novice's perspective, I'm enjoying these articles you write. Thanks for making an attempt to explain them!

 

The only difference between Fenwick and Corsi is that Corsi includes shot attempts that were blocked by an opposing player. Fenwick thinks that shot blocking is a skill and teams should receive credit for blocking a shot (by not having that shot attempt count against them). The difference between the Corsi number and their Fenwick number is simply the number of shots blocked by the team during the game.

 

What statisticians have found is that Corsi/Fenwick is a better predictor of future success than focusing on something like shots on goal or goal differential. And yes Corsi/Fenwick can indicate possession time, because if you're taking more shot attempts, you probably have the puck more. Corsi Against does track goalie workload (which is the origin of Corsi) because the goalie needs to react to all shot attempts, not just the ones that land on goal.

 

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