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Diving into the S69 Playoffs with Advanced Metrics


DMaximus

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I’m going to take a look at the Fenwick data up to this point in the VHL season and irresponsibly draw conclusions for the remainder of the season and the playoffs.

 

First, let’s look at the current standings:

North American Conference

           

PO

Team

GP

W

L

OTL

P

GF

GA

Diff

PCT

 

1

X -Vancouver Wolves

59

40

18

1

81

188

146

42

0.686

 

2

Seattle Bears

60

38

19

3

79

180

134

46

0.658

 

3

New York Americans

60

28

22

10

66

147

155

-8

0.55

 

4

Toronto Legion

59

28

26

5

61

150

156

-6

0.517

 

5

Calgary Wranglers

60

26

30

4

56

142

154

-12

0.467

 

6

D.C. Dragons

60

23

32

5

51

122

168

-46

0.425

 

European Conference

             

 

PO

Team

GP

W

L

OTL

P

GF

GA

Diff

PCT

 

1

X -Riga Reign

60

39

19

2

80

168

121

47

0.667

 

2

X -Helsinki Titans

60

37

20

3

77

176

143

33

0.642

 

3

Moscow Menace

60

31

19

10

72

189

163

26

0.6

 

4

Malmo Nighthawks

60

31

21

8

70

148

139

9

0.583

 

5

Prague Phantoms

60

24

31

5

53

159

196

-37

0.442

 

6

E - HC Davos Dynamo

60

14

42

4

32

96

190

-94

0.267

 

                               

 

Here’s the Fenwick data for each team. Fenwick counts all non-blocked shot attempts in a game. A shot attempt can be a goal, a shot on goal, a shot that hits the post, or a shot the misses the net.

Fenwick For is shot attempts not blocked by the opponent.

Fenwick Against is how many non-blocked shot attempts your team allows.

Fenwick adds together the team’s Fenwick For and Fenwick Against. If it’s positive your team had more non-blocked shot attempts than the opponent. If it’s negative, your opponent took more non-blocked shot attempts than your team.

Fenwick For Pct is your team’s percentage of all shot attempts in that game.

 

Team Name

Games Played

Fenwick For

Fenwick Against

Total Fenwick

Fenwick For Pct

Calgary Wranglers

60

44.23

49.13

-4.90

47.45

D.C. Dragons

60

39.30

52.03

-12.73

43.64

HC Davos Dynamo

60

34.33

61.67

-27.33

35.96

Helsinki Titans

60

54.62

48.50

6.12

52.84

Malmo Nighthawks

60

46.43

47.92

-1.48

49.58

Moscow Menace

60

57.90

49.02

8.88

54.21

New York Americans

60

53.83

51.68

2.15

50.91

Prague Phantoms

60

57.77

54.17

3.60

51.95

Riga Reign

60

55.43

43.87

11.57

56.36

Seattle Bears

60

52.67

50.63

2.03

51.46

Toronto Legion

59

50.22

53.41

-3.19

48.48

Vancouver Wolves

59

62.95

47.46

15.49

57.24

Grand Total

718

50.79

50.79

0.00

50.00

 

Vancouver is the best offensive team in the league, having an average Fenwick For of 62.95 more than 5 better than the next closest team, Moscow (57.90). Prague’s offensive chops are on display with their 3rd best total of 57.77.

 

Riga displays their dominance on the defensive side of things leading the league with a low 43.87 Fenwick Against. Vancouver allows a 2nd best 47.46 shot attempts per game and Malmo is close by in 3rd with 47.92.

 

Based on the standings and the Fenwick information it seems like the playoff teams, the top 4 teams in each conference, are set. We can look at the head to head Fenwick data to identify difficult matchups and possibly some upsets in the playoffs.

 

Looking at the Fenwick %, anything over 55% is considered elite. This season there are two teams that fall into that category, Vancouver (57.24%) and Riga (56.36%). That could prove to be the finals matchup.

 

Playoff Preview

 

Vancouver vs. Toronto, this potential 1st round matchup could be more difficult than anticipated for Vancouver. In their 8 games this season, Vancouver only has a Fenwick Pct of 52.12 against Toronto, much lower than their overall percentage of 57.24.

 

Seattle vs. New York, another first round matchup where the favorite needs to be on alert. New York actually has a positive Fenwick rating against Seattle this season. In their 6 games this season, New York has Fenwick Pct of 53.70. Two of those games were completely dominated by New York. Seattle is hoping for Toronto to pass New York in the standings. They perform much better against Toronto with a Fenwick % of 55.01 instead of the 46.30% against New York.

 

The European conference is a little less upset friendly. Riga has played very well against Malmo this season with a Fenwick % of 56.06. Riga could be in trouble if Moscow drops to 4th place in the conference, they have a much smaller Fenwick % of 51.62 against Moscow.

 

Moscow and Helsinki are very tightly matched as well, with Helsinki being just slightly better with a Fenwick % of 51.04 against Moscow this season. That matchup would be the best series of the 1st round. The only teams that are more closely matched than Moscow and Helsinki is Vancouver and Riga (Vancouver has a Fenwick % of 50.65 against Riga this season, the closest of any two playoff teams).

 

Malmo would love to make it to 3rd place as they perform better against Helsinki than they do against Riga (Fenwick % of 48.09 vs. Helsinki, 43.94 vs. Riga).

 

Moving into the 2nd round, if Vancouver survives, it doesn’t seem to matter much who they face in the 2nd round. They have a similar Fenwick % against both Seattle (55.35) and New York (55.58) this season. Based on those numbers it looks like Vancouver may have an easier 2nd round than 1st round.

 

Riga would be rooting for a Helsinki victory over Moscow, as they fair slightly better vs. Helsinki (52.43) than they do vs. Moscow (51.62).

 

For the finals, Vancouver would prefer for Helsinki to make it through the gauntlet of the European Conference. They have played best against Helsinki (Fenwick % 54.40). Both Moscow and Riga would be a great series against Vancouver, with Riga being the stronger opponent of the two (Riga 50.65, Moscow 51.13).

 

All the data is pointing to a very close and exciting playoffs, with some possible first round upsets. The top teams are pretty closely matched which should make for exciting 2nd round and finals. We’re primed and ready to see how it all plays out!

 

1,036 words, will claim for 2 weeks.

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