Lesieur's Strong Start - Result of Small Sample Size or More?

[KC15 340]

We have played 6 games in this young S70 season. That is way too early to make any analysis and what might play out over the full 72 games of the season. And yet the appeal of a brand new season and the hope and possibility that that represents begs for some comment – or at least curious musing and wild speculation. And I’m just the man for both.

 

This is all prompted by my player’s, Guy Lesieur, great start and my unrealistic hope that this might continue, even at my current level of only 448 TPA. Let’s set the scene. Lesieur in on a point per game pace with 3 goals and 3 assists in 6 GP. That puts him at number one on the D.C. Dragons in goals scored and number 4 in assists. That projects out to 36 goals and 36 assists on the season when his numbers for S69 of just 12 goals and 10 assists. A phenomenal leap in fire power.

 

He has 26 shots, number 2 on the team, and is scoring a modest 11.54%, but even that is up from 8.28% in S69. The 26 shots projects out to 312 on the season, more than doubling his mark of 145 in S69.

 

The first and most reasonable explanation is, of course, small sample size. In only 6 games anything can happen. I think it might be a worthy undertaking to track this in future articles to see when or if the trend crumbles to the ground and Lesieur regresses to his actual TPA-based earned statistical accompishments. I have a hunch that there will be regression, but not as much as one might expect.

 

What accounts for the phenomenal start if we assume it is not all due to small sample size?

 

One might immediately site growth in TPE. Lesieur should score more in his second season of earning at the VHL level. But his TPA (448) is still dwarfed by the first line of Aaltonen (830), Graves (601), and Frostbeard (810).

 

One might site a vastly better set of line mates, but Ritchie is at 365 TPA and George Washington at 635 – the highest total TPA of line 2 being only slightly better than the lowest of line 1.

 

One might site better ice time, but Lesieur’s line is double-shifted for a total of 32% total playing time while Line 1’s double-shift amounts to 68% of the total playing time.

 

Perhaps Lesieur’s production can be explained by unselfish linemates that just consistently feed Lesieur the puck, but that would not explain the 4^th highest assist total and as for setting up Lesieur disproportionately, both Ritchie and Washington are actually shoot first players with scoring higher than passing.

 

It also could be that Simon T is just a terrible sim engine and the attribute levels really mean nothing and it’s all just random. I’ve heard complaints about Simon T for a while, but if it is really all just random, why do we keep playing? Why do we keep earning TPE to improve?

 

Or it really is just really small sample size and none of this is a lasting phenomenon, but will just get evened out over the course of a 72 game season.

 

We shall see. We shall see.