S74 VHFL Predictions.

[McWolf 3,111]

S74 VHFL Predictions.

 

Hey everyone, it's your favourite - only - VHFL analyst, here with a project I thought about for a long time, but never took the time to do before. I really wanted to write about the VHFL in the offseason, release complete rankings or bold predictions, stuff like that, but the offseasons usually go by fast, especially when you are a GM and you got to prepare for the drafts and all. But the VHL draft was yesterday, and the VHFL groups are supposedly starting to draft tomorrow, so that gave me - and our other 'VHFL experts' - some time to put something together. I asked the same 6 questions to everyone, to kind of see where their minds are at with this season's edition of the VHFL, and take a peek at their strategy going into the draft. The questions were:

 

• Who will you pick if you have the first overall pick in your group?
• Who do you think will finish the season with the most fantasy points?
• Who's your favourite forward sleeper?
• Who's your favourite defensive sleeper?
• Which forward do you predict will bust?
• Which defenseman do you predict will bust?

 

And of course, I couldn't go farther with this without our so-called experts. Those of you that have known me for a bit know I like to kinda replicate real-life sports and fantasy articles we often see all over the internet. I've always loved reading collective articles, where a group of experts get together and rank players or teams, with each of them splitting the bulk of the writing, and I've done my best to bring this sort of articles over to the VHL. It started with a mock draft, and continued with a list of the 25 best players in the league, now both VSN offseason traditions. So it only made sense to bring over a couple of friends to predict who the best and worst players are for fantasy-purpose this season. Here they are:

 

• @OrbitingDeath (top ranked VHFLer according to the S74 VHFL Rankings, and winner in four straight seasons)
• @McWolf (#2)
• @GustavMattias (#4)
• @Jubis (#19)
• @.sniffuM (#31)

 

So, without further ado, let's get into the our first question.

 

 

 

Who will you pick if you have the first overall pick in your group?

 

OrbitingDeath: Condor Adrienne.

Condor Adrienne, which might be a homer pick, but it definitly is a player you can rely on. He's the stronghold of a rising Malmo team and physical enough to always guarantee a nice result in fantasy.

 

McWolf: Benny Graves.

It's a weird situation this season. HHH, Freeman, Jaguar were fan favourites for the top of the draft for maybe the past 3 seasons, but they all retired this offseason, leaving a void at the very top. If I had the first pick, I think I'd hesitate between Brock Louth, Benny Graves, Mikko Lahtinen. They all have the track record when it comes to scoring, hitting and they all figure to be the best players on somewhat great teams. I think I'd go with Benny myself, but it could go either way.

 

GustavMattias: Benny Graves.

This season's runner-up in MVP voting broke out in S73 with a campaign that put him among the league's top scorers...and piled up the hits for a bit of a fantasy bonus. This season, he looks to repeat the performance, and his chances look pretty decent. At the moment one of only two DC forwards over 600 TPA, he's head and shoulders above the rest with over 1000.

 

Jubis: Scott Greene.

 

.sniffuM: Mikko Lahtinen.

He has a great build for fantasy with his high checking and general offensive capabilities, but he also plays for a team that doesn't have a ton of depth offensively so he should put up solid numbers all around.

 

 

 

Who do you think will finish the season with the most fantasy points?

 

OrbitingDeath: Benny Graves.

He's jumped up in points by almost 30 points while keeping a decent hit total. I expect him to take the next step next season and break out as a top fantasy earner,

 

McWolf: Condor Adrienne.

I almost went with Bridges repeating as the VHFL's top scorer, but looking at his situation, I actually doubt it happens. His hits and shots blocked totals shouldn't change much, but with HHH leaving Warsaw, I doubt Bridges comes anywhere close to his 86 points from last season. So I'm going back with a safe bet, Condor Adrienne, who's only a season removed from leading the league in fantasy points. He's far and away the best player on Malmo, a team that still seems to be midpack. Tons of opportunity for him to hit, block shots and get some points.

 

GustavMattias: Alex Bridges.

Bridges again? Often, the player with the most fantasy points is a mid-level defenseman on a low-level team. Bridges not only fits that perfectly, he's done it before--he put up more points than anyone else last season. Can he do it again? Only time will tell, but don't rule him out.

 

Jubis: Erik Killinger.

 

.sniffuM: Erik Killinger.

My guess would be Erik Killinger. Remember, Alex Bridges was the top scorer in fantasy last season with under 500 TPE as a defenseman on a shallow team with a build that allowed him to contribute everywhere. I believe Killinger can have a similarly strong season this year.

 

 

 

Who's your favourite forward sleeper?

 

OrbitingDeath: Markus Nygren.

When is the last time you could safely pick a Devise player for fantasy? Markus Nygren is the best sleeper forward around and a vital piece of my team last season. Over a point per game and tons of hits, I can't believe he was around that late.

 

McWolf: Ola Vikingstad.

Markus Nygren and Ray Sheilds broke out last season and are probably going to be drafted more often this season, so we need to find a new forward for our third roster spot. I think this season's breakout will be one of two forwards on the Seattle Bears. They don't have too many forwards at the moment, guaranteeing their stars get a lot of time on ice. Kris Rice had a great season in Calgary last season and should keep it up in Seattle, but I trust Ola Vikingstad to outscore him. He scored 71 points and added 225 hits in his third season, as he stays on track with his great power forward build.

 

GustavMattias: Squirrely dan.

Here we've got a player with under 500 TPA, but we've also got Chicago's top forward. His rookie campaign last season saw him put up nearly a point per game with over 150 hits, and coming into this season with more TPE and a just-about-equivalent team situation puts him in prime position to be a late-round steal.

 

Jubis: Ryo Yamazuki II, Dakota Lamb, Scott Greene.

Now on LA and potentially filling Gunnar's shoes, Yamazuki could have a big season. Even though he doesn't hit, he could be worth a look as a final pick in your draft. He scored 31 goals on Moscow last season with a lesser role. / Dakota Lamb is making his rookie season debut with Warsaw at 400 TPE. Expect big things from a player who is the top center on the team. A potential late draft steal. / Not going to be a complete steal, but I see Greene climbing all the way into the top 5 in fantasy points. Maybe being on a new team just allows him to go off. Could set career highs in goals and points this season.

 

.sniffuM: Markus Nygren.

I'm gonna have to agree with Green on Nygren. Not only does he bring an all-out physical game that lends itself well to fantasy, he plays on a team that lacks much physical presence elsewhere, and is generally shallow enough that he should be able to put up solid offensive numbers again.

 

 

 

Who's your favourite defensive sleeper?

 

OrbitingDeath: James Rose.

A solid rookie season with 63 points, 186 hits and 162 shots blocked. And a -37 rating which doesn't influence fantasy. Being one of the few defenseman on London United he is guaranteed lots of playtime and should be a pick available in your last rounds.

 

McWolf: James Rose.

I'll follow Greenie here. I really like Rose this season. I actually almost drafted him last season too. The only reason I didn't get him was because he lacked the CK that Bridges had. And I was right to go with Bridges instead. But Rose added CK throughout the season, finishing as D9 with 250 fantasy points. I think he's still kind of flying under the radar, but as London's TPE leader with just under 400, odds are he'll score points, hit a lot and block a ton of shots. Floor is high and ceiling is even higher. I feel like D9 would be a bad season for him. Look at him to finish as at least D5.

 

GustavMattias: Matty Socks.

...and back to Chicago we go. Socks is a sleeper for the same reason that Squirrely dan is a sleeper--the team situation. As Chicago's only defender at the moment, Socks, who put up 104 points last season in the VHLM, will see all the ice time possible, and with the way STHS favors players in unique situations such as these, I'd see this as a high-risk, high-reward late pick.

 

Jubis: James Rose.

 

.sniffuM: Griff Manzer.

Gonna go with Griff Manzer. He's gonna be able to contribute well in every phase for a young Vancouver team that's in transition, and the team's status as a young, growing team likely means he's in good position to block a lot of shots as well.

 

 

 

Which forward do you predict will bust?

 

OrbitingDeath: Willie Dredge.

Willie Dredge might be a point per game player last season, but he left a lot of fantasy points of the board by simply not hitting. So despite having a great season offensively, this S68 RW is not a solid pick for your team

 

McWolf: Scott Greene.

Gunnar is almost too obvious. I'd say him, because I'm sure some people will pick thinking he'll repeat as a 60-goal scorer. Hear me out, I see Gunnar struggling to pass the 60-point mark. He's not in LA anymore. Calgary is a good team, way more crowded, and Gunnar regressed hard. I'm actually going another way, with a different Wrangler. I see new acquisition Scott Greene has a lesser Mikko Lahtinen. He won't score as much as he did last season, and his high DI means he probably won't get more much more than 100 hits. His floor isn't high and we have no guarantee that his ceiling can be high in his new situation.

 

GustavMattias: Sigard Gunnar.

One might be surprised, from a purely stats-based standpoint, to see Gunnar (whose point total has improved every season, up to a league-leading Slobo run last season) on the bust list, but I have my reasons. For one, regression is starting to do its thing, putting Gunnar under 600 TPA. For another, his team situation has changed. No longer the best forward in LA, he's behind three other forwards on the Calgary roster.

 

Jubis: Ray Sheilds.

 

.sniffuM: Owen Nolan.

I'll say Owen Nolan. I love my longtime New York teammate, but the physical part of his game has disappeared. Some may try to pick him because he's by far the best forward on New York so he should bounce back from a disappointing 58-point season, but to me that's too much to bank on considering he doesn't hit anybody and could be traded to a deeper team.

 

 

 

Which defenseman do you predict will bust?

 

OrbitingDeath: Spencer Elsby.

Spencer Elsby would be my bust for fantasy, ofcourse he is only a rookie still, but his tpe levels are already on a high level that you would expect more of him. While 45 points is nothing to be ashamed of, the lack of hits here just don't make him a viable fantasy option.

 

McWolf: Cinnamon Block

In general, I tend to avoid picking defensemen on good teams. Good teams usually control the game, they spend more time in the offensive zone, shoot more, score more. Sure that means their top defensemen could end up in the 80-to-90-point range, when he would possibly be more in the 60-to-70 range if he was on a bad team. But he'll never get as many hits and shots blocked on a good team as he would on a bad team. Assists are worth 1 fantasy point. Shots blocked are worth 0.8. Almost the same. That 20-30-point upgrade from playing on a better team won't compensate from the less of maybe up to 100 shots blocked. Sometimes it still pays off, but it's not usual. So why am I predicting that Cinnamon Block busts? I'm not really predicting that, actually. But at the time of writing this, she is still a free agent. Be cautious of her situation, I wouldn't draft her until she signs. She could end up on a very crowded blueline, get close low totals in hits, shots blocked and points, sacrificing it all for a better chance at a Cup, and you'd be sacrificing your shot at getting that sweet 6 TPE. Or she could sign with a low-end team to pad stats, like in London - call me @omgitshim.

 

GustavMattias: Hulk Hogan.

Hogan has seen his own run of success in recent times, breaking 70 points in each of the last three seasons and even breaking 90 in S73. Regression has hit him hard, though, and Seattle has shaken up a bit of their forward core and lost goalie Rayz Funk to the free agent market. The Bears also have five defensemen on the roster, which could cut down on Hogan's ice time--as he's also third in TPA on the defensive unit.

 

Jubis: Gabriel Gutzwiler.

 

.sniffuM: Edwin THE Encarnacion.

This is a tough one to make, so I'll take a copout and say Edwin THE Encarnacion. In general he isn't regarded super highly in fantasy circles because he doesn't hit at all but some people may look at his very high TPA and select him based off of that. Great player, but not so much from a fantasy perspective.

 

 

 

Anything else you want to add?

 

McWolf: I've gone over this in the past, but it never hurts to say it again. CK wins championships. Point production from year to year is hard to predict. Every player has ups and downs throughout its careers. Jet Jaguar was been a stable performer for the last 3 of 4 seasons, and was a name you'd regularly see at the very top of the VHFL Drafts, but his point totals plummeted from the 80+ range he was in for a while to 66 last season. He went from a top forward in VHFL to only F26 last season, but it would have been way worse if he didn't add 289 hits. CK gives hits, and hits give a nice floor for your player's fantasy production.

 

Also, you might have noticed no one talked about goaltenders in here. That's because goaltenders are absolutely non-factors in VHFL. I won my league last season with a goalie that wasn't even in the top 10 in the league in fantasy points. The difference between the best and the worst starters is not worth investing anything more than a 6th round pick and, anyway, good luck predicting who'll be the best. Los Angeles' bot goalie finished as G3 last season, for some reasons. Over Rayz Funk. Four-time Daisouke Kanou Trophy-winner Rayz Funk. Goalies make no sense, wait for the 6th and pick whoever, really. Any starter does.

 

Jubis: You're not going to win your group unless you find the next breakout player. In S72 Condor Adrienne or in S73 players like Alex Bridges and Sigard Gunnar. You are going to have to scout to find him or her tho. In all three cases you have decent players that played in favourable roles on non playoff teams. So look to the expansion teams for hidden gems.
 

Edited September 12, 2020 by McWolf

[Gustav 6,097]

I agreed with Rose for the defensive steal but went Socks for the sake of variety. Both should be great options later on.

[McWolf 3,111]

Just now, GustavMattias said:

I agreed with Rose for the defensive steal but went Socks for the sake of variety. Both should be great options later on.

Like me with Sigard Gunnar as a bust. Too obvious to mention haha

[.sniffuM 1,741]

My portion clocked in somewhere around 315 words, so I'm claiming this as a VHL.com.

[mattyIceman 1,037]

Beware Rose this season boys...

 

He maddddd