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Time for a change in simming


gorlab
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From a non-biased user perspective, something needs to be done with how simming is handled in the VHL. Specifically with @Beketov and the historical trends of his player dominating the VHL when he is simming the season.

 

I'm sure this thread, like every other time I've pointed out this obvious anomaly in the past, will just be brushed off like usual, because for some reason the VHL can't wrap it's head around figuring out an unbiased simming system.

 

Here is why I am making this thread, and suggesting things need to be changed.  Let's look at Beketov's simming history for the duration of his current player's career:

 

4eWJxHP.png

 

 

 

As you can see, there is a very very very very stark increase in his player's performance when he is simming the VHL season. This is not an opinion, this is not a conspiracy, this is a cold hard fact as denoted by the numbers highlighted in red above.

 

For comparisson, lets break down the goal/point leaders in each of the past 5 seasons:

 

S76 - Beketov Sims. Lahtinen leads the league in points, and scores 11 more goals than any other player:

 

Top 5 Points
Player Name    G-A-P
Mikko Lahtinen (MOS)    61-60-121
Andrew Su (VAN)    47-74-121
Ola Vikingstad (HSK)    50-60-110
Kris Rice (MOS)    40-65-105
Thomas Landry II (PRG)    38-67-105

 

Top 5 Goals
Player Name    GP-G
Mikko Lahtinen (MOS)    72 - 61
Ola Vikingstad (HSK)    72 - 50
Kyl Oferson (CHI)    72 - 47
Andrew Su (VAN)    72 - 47
Ray Sheilds (RIG)    72 - 46

 

 

S75 - Devise sims. A respectable season for Lahtinen where he dominates nothing and isn't even in the top 5 goalscorers AKA a very likely season outcome for a high tpe player.

 

Top 5 Points
Player Name    G-A-P
John Merrick (TOR)    45-62-107
Andrew Su (VAN)    43-63-106
Chris Hylands (MAL)    44-56-100
Mikko Lahtinen (MOS)    36-63-99
Dagmar Havlova (WAR)    28-69-97


Top 5 Goals
Player Name    GP-G
Guy Lesieur (DCD)    72 - 47
John Merrick (TOR)    72 - 45
Chris Hylands (MAL)    72 - 44
Aleelee Kiak (CHI)    71 - 43
Andrew Su (VAN)    72 - 43

 

 

S74 - Beketov sims. Lahtinen dominates the league and scores a considerable amount more goals than any other player. Goal scoring lead comfortably, narrowly misses out on point lead.

 

Top 5 Points
Player Name    G-A-P
Patrik Tallinder (RIG)    53-74-127
Mikko Lahtinen (MOS)    61-62-123
Brock Louth (VAN)    53-58-111
Condor Adrienne (MAL)    28-82-110
Vladimir Pavlov (MOS)    20-88-108

 

Top 5 Goals
Player Name    GP-G
Mikko Lahtinen (MOS)    72 - 61
Brock Louth (VAN)    72 - 53
Patrik Tallinder (RIG)    72 - 53
Kyl Oferson (RIG)    72 - 47
Chris Hylands (MAL)    72 - 46

 

 

S73 - Devise sims. Non-factor season

 

Top 5 Points
Player Name    G-A-P
Sigard Gunnar (LAS)    60-59-119
Hunter Hearst Helmsley (WAR)    45-68-113
Jeff Downey (VAN)    32-74-106
Brock Louth (VAN)    46-59-105
Scott Greene (SEA)    30-75-105


Top 5 Goals
Player Name    GP-G
Sigard Gunnar (LAS)    72 - 60
Brock Louth (VAN)    72 - 46
Guy Lesieur (DCD)    72 - 46
Hunter Hearst Helmsley (WAR)    72 - 45
RJ Jubis (CGY)    72 - 45

 

 

S72 - Beketov sims. Lahtinen's 3rd VHL season, where one would expect a player is getting to a tpe-level where they can be effective and POSSIBLY HAVE A CHANCE of dominating the league... Beketov leading all goalscorers, only 4 less goals than HOFer Freeman, who I can only guess during this season was probably 500-800+ tpe ahead of Lahtinen.

 

Top 5 Points
Player Name    G-A-P
Condor Adrienne (MAL)    35-65-100
Jet Jaguar (DAV)    37-60-97
RJ Jubis (CGY)    38-55-93
Lewis Dawson (MAL)    36-57-93
Scott Greene (SEA)    32-61-93


Top 5 Goals
Player Name    GP-G
Julius Freeman (NYA)    73 - 45
Mikko Lahtinen (CGY)    72 - 41
Owen Nolan (NYA)    72 - 40
Jerry Garcia (DAV)    72 - 39
Ambrose Stark (SEA)    72 - 39

 

 

S71 - Devise sims. Lahtinen's sophmore season. 7 goals, 22 assists, 29 points. No sophmore is dominating the VHL, so S71 and S70 are basically irrelevant. Regardless, device simmed and Lahtinen was a non-factor.

 

S70 - Beketov sims. Lahtinen's rookie season. 6 goals, 14 assists, 20 points.  This is the only piece of statistical evidence that supports Beketov not rigging sims, but we are all familiar with VHL rookies not performing, and a VHL ROTY trophy having 0 barring on a HoF induction, and if I were manipulating my player's results, it's only logical to not have him lead the league every single season you sim.

 

S69 - Beketov has no player in the VHL and device sims.

 

 

 

Now, let's carry this statistical observation over to Beketov's last player, Matt Thompson.

 

 

S68 - Beketov sims for Thompson's final season of his career. League completely dominated once again. 10 goals more than any other player, and coincidentally enough 60 goals was needed for him to hit 400 career goals/points?  Amazing how things worked out just right for our best people.

 

Top 5 Points
Player Name    G-A-P
Matt Thompson (MAL)    60-62-122
Rauno Palo (RIG)    50-55-105
Ryan Sullivan Jr (MAL)    33-70-103
Jake Davis (DAV)    44-54-98
Julian Borwinn (HSK)    46-50-96


Top 5 Goals
Player Name    GP-G
Matt Thompson (MAL)    72 - 60
Rauno Palo (RIG)    73 - 50
Julian Borwinn (HSK)    72 - 46
Jake Davis (DAV)    72 - 44
Mikko Aaltonen (DCD)    72 - 40

 

 

S67 - Device sims. Matt Thompson has a good but not dominant season, leading nothing and winning nothing. 5 less goals than the leading goal scorer:

 

Top 5 Points
Player Name    G-A-P
Rauno Palo (VAN)    46-64-110
Podrick Cast (MOS)    46-58-104
Beau Louth (VAN)    40-58-98
Veran Dragomir (TOR)    48-49-97
Jake Davis (DAV)    41-48-89


Top 5 Goals
Player Name    GP-G
Veran Dragomir (TOR)    72 - 48
Podrick Cast (MOS)    72 - 46
Rauno Palo (VAN)    72 - 46
Matt Thompson (HSK)    72 - 43
Jake Davis (DAV)    72 - 41

 

 

S66 - Beketov sims. Matt Thompson wins goal scoring race.

 

Top 5 Points
Player Name    G-A-P
Julian Borwinn (HSK)    51-63-114
Jake Davis (VAN)    38-66-104
Matt Thompson (HSK)    51-50-101
Sebastian Ironside (CGY)    36-64-100
Edwin Preencarnacion (RIG)    43-54-97


Top 5 Goals
Player Name    GP-G
Matt Thompson (HSK)    72 - 51
Julian Borwinn (HSK)    72 - 51
Shane Mars (SEA)    72 - 46
Beau Louth (VAN)    72 - 45
Edwin Preencarnacion (RIG)    72 - 43

 

 

S65 - device sims. Matt Thompson 10 goals behind league leader. Not in top 5 points. This was Thompson's 5th season, aka final season before depreciation kicks in. 51 snipes, very respectable for a high-tpe player, but not dominating the league by any means.

 

Top 5 Points
Player Name    G-A-P
Oyorra Arroyo (TOR)    62-63-125
Veran Dragomir (SEA)    55-65-120
Sebastian Ironside (SEA)    43-66-109
Beau Louth (VAN)    53-53-106
Vyacheslav Smirnov (SEA)    46-60-106


Top 5 Goals
Player Name    GP-G
Oyorra Arroyo (TOR)    72 - 62
Veran Dragomir (SEA)    72 - 55
Beau Louth (VAN)    72 - 53
Matt Thompson (SEA)    72 - 52
Rylan Peace (DAV)    72 - 51

 

 

S64 - At this point it get's shaky as to who the simmer is, but I'm going to guess it was Beketov because Thompson dominates league. Leading points and goals.

 

Top 5 Points
Player Name    G-A-P
Matt Thompson (SEA)    56-54-110
Oyorra Arroyo (TOR)    56-53-109
Sebastian Ironside (TOR)    34-74-108
Robert Malenko (SEA)    21-85-106
Podrick Cast (RIG)    48-54-102


Top 5 Goals
Player Name    GP-G
Oyorra Arroyo (TOR)    72 - 56
Matt Thompson (SEA)    72 - 56
Podrick Cast (RIG)    72 - 48
Beau Louth (QUE)    72 - 45
Edwin Preencarnacion (RIG)    72 - 44

 

 

S63 - This is definitely where it gets wonky as to who is simming, between Draper, Bek, or Device.  Thompson performs and scores but doesn't lead the league in anything.

 

Top 5 Points
Player Name    G-A-P
Gabriel McAllister (SEA)    55-84-139
Sebastian Ironside (TOR)    56-59-115
Jasper Canmore (CGY)    40-75-115
Joseph Bassolino (RIG)    21-89-110
Podrick Cast (RIG)    50-56-106


Top 5 Goals
Player Name    GP-G
Sebastian Ironside (TOR)    72 - 56
Gabriel McAllister (SEA)    72 - 55
Matt Thompson (SEA)    72 - 51
Podrick Cast (RIG)    72 - 50
Keaton Louth (CGY)    72 - 45

 

 

S62 - Don't even get me started. I'm going to assume Beketov simmed this season but it's possible Will did. Either way, Thompson beasts tf out and scores 76 goals and 150 points in his sophmore season..... LOL.  2nd in point, 2nd in goals.... as a sophmore.

 

Top 5 Points
Player Name    G-A-P
Podrick Cast (RIG)    79-95-174
Matt Thompson (SEA)    76-74-150
Vyacheslav Smirnov (SEA)    63-86-149
Jasper Canmore (CGY)    46-96-142
Edwin Preencarnacion (RIG)    65-76-141


Top 5 Goals
Player Name    GP-G
Podrick Cast (RIG)    72 - 79
Matt Thompson (SEA)    72 - 76
Keaton Louth (CGY)    72 - 68
Edwin Preencarnacion (RIG)    72 - 65
Vyacheslav Smirnov (SEA)    72 - 63

 

 

S61 - Thompson rookie season. Doesn't look like he simmed, and therefore gets stomped out in rookie scoring.  Non-factor. 

 

 

 

 

=====================================================================================================================

 

 

 

There we have it. Almost two full seasons worth of what is, to a logical and unbiased viewer, a substantial amount of evidence that something is clearly being manipulated during Beketov's simming seasons.

 

We have plenty of very active/committed VHL members who earn tpe at the same pace as Beketov, have been in STHS sims for as long as Beketov, and have had very good seasons.... but the consistency of dominance is just too much to be ignored, especially when it's coming every second season when Beketov is simming. This cannot and should not be argued or ignored and despite being INTELLECTUAL EVIDENCE and not EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE, it should be more than enough that something should be done/changed, for peace of mind for the VHL community at the very least. 

 

The answer of "too bad." doesn't cut it anymore. 

 

 

 

 

 

Now I'm going to do a FAQ section for anyone who somehow has no problem, or is not at all skeptical after reading the above information.

 

 

1) How would Beketov be able to manipulate the sim, as a simmer, to allow his player to perform at such a higher standard than all other players?

Well, I don't really have much experience with STHS, but the clear and obvious answer is:

- Beketov loads the VHL sim. Sims the games. Looks at his player's performance, and decides if he likes it or not. 

If YES, sim results get published. 

If NO, STHS program is exited without saving, re-loaded from the initial "sim day point", and re-simmed.  Repeat process until result = YES.

 

This is just the most clear/obvious answer to how it can be manipulated, without talking about any potential sim setting/slider tampering. This means of "rigging" also supports the wide variances between Beketov's player and the rest of the VHL's players on his sim seasons where he's dominating. The non-beketov players don't have the luxury of potentially re-do'ing a bad sim.

 

 

2) Gorlab, you're clearly just a crybaby. Why do you ~ALWAYS~ accuse simmers of rigging?

 

Great question there, first-gen member who's been here for 6 seasons. This train-of-thought is far more meme-worthy than me complaining about rigging, because I've only ever accused two people of rigging sims; Beketov and Molholt.

 

Both of these accusations were made because of, what is in my opinion, a staggering amount of statistical evidence showing a wild degree of inconsistency when it came to their players performing during seasons where they were the simmer. If you look at the evidence presented in this article and think there is nothing questionable, well, I have significant doubts about your critical thinking ability and suggest you take some time to do some self-improvement in that area. 

 

 

3) Who cares? Even if he is rigging, this is a fake hockey sim league. The fact you just took 30 minutes to make this thread just shows you are a loser and taking things to seriously.

 

I mean, we have a community of hundreds of people, who make considerable effort to engage in this league/community on a daily basis. Whether it's through making graphics, compiling written media, doing podcasts, running fantasy drafts, streaming VHL/VHLM drafts, recruiting and mentoring new members, etc. If taking steps to ensure all of this work done by the community results in a FAIR and UNBIASED "result" (aka the sims themselves) is "hardo" or caring too much, well, I guess you're right about me. 

 

 

4) Beketov is a great member who's been on the VHL a long time and IMO would never do anything like this, to jeopardize the credibility of the league, just so his own imaginary player gets the most awards and success possible. 

 

I'd love to live in a world where this can actually be considered and taken at face value. Unfortunately, this is not reality. There are many examples of individuals abusing their power/status in an unfair manner to manipulate a league/community/group for their own benefit, regardless of what that benefit is. If this is the stance you're taking, in the face of what IMHO is a staggering amount of statistical evidence that does raise questions, well, I really hope you get to continue your blissfully ignorant existence, because the real world does not work this way. 

 

 

 

 

SOLUTIONS:

 

There are numerous, very simple solutions to the complaint/problem that I am bringing forth with this thread. Literally off-the-top of my head, there are two very simple and easy solutions which Beketov can take to defend himself against any accusation of cheating/manipulation. This isn't the first time I'm suggesting these solutions, I've suggested them many times in the past and been met with no cooperation.

 

Solution 1:  I've specifically asked Beketov to live sim his regular season sims, with Discord 2-factor authentication  (aka he shows the discord in the live sim, showing timestamped messages, or some interaction with literally any VHL member who's online, so we know the results of the sim are the ones that get published). This is an extra step to the simming process, and may incur a total of ~1 extra minute per SIM to execute. I understand it's an extra step, but it's a bulletproof way of assuring sims at least don't get re-simmed if performance isn't in the simmer's benefit.  My most recent suggestion of this solution received a reply of:

juqoreJ.png

 

Yes, because we all see the strife and horror that Device goes through for his playoff live sims. Oh, the humanity of that extra 30-60 seconds to stream the sim to discord. I really should be permabanned on-site for suggesting such a cruel and unusual itinerary for our fearless commish and simmer. No, I should actually be put before a firing squad and killed for such a senseless ask.

 

 

Solution 2:  Simply remove Beketov as a simmer. Device has simmed the same amount of seasons in recent history as Beketov. He gets paid the same simmer tpe pay as Beketov. He's never dominated shit (like the majority of VHL players). Again, I've suggested this numerous times over the past ~16 seasons, and have gotten nowhere. Most recently, this was met with a swift negative response:

g9GSbOX.png

 

Yes, why do anything in the name of fairness, when it involves training someone on the very intense and robust process of clicking 4 times to do a STHS sim. It's not like the VHL has a community of dedicated members who would be able and willing to do their part to ensure fairness in the league. I will personally purchase an STHS license every season for whatever new simmer needs to be "TRAINED" to sim, so it will not negatively impact the VHL's budget in any way, pretending that's even a problem/concern we have with how the donation system works.

 

 

 

 

Thanks for taking the time to read my complaint. I'll see you in S78, when Beketov is once again simming. 

Edited by gorlab
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the hangover math GIF
 

Thats... a lot of evidence, put together in an easy to follow and persuasive way... I want to give him the benefit of the doubt because Bek’s a good guy who said he didn’t do it, but either way it’s not a great look for the integrity of the league. 

Edited by bigAL
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So you're truely TRUELY terrible at data collection Gorlab. You've ignored team build in everyone of these scenerios as well as overall league state. Seems like an incredibly obvious case of confirmation bias that you'll ignore because you have no idea how incredibly complicated data collection is.

 

tumblr_o16n2kBlpX1ta3qyvo1_1280.jpg

Edited by Jericho
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Also, for anyone who thinks this is all coming from a place of inter-personal-conflict between Beketov and myself. I want to clarify that this is not the case.

 

 

This has nothing to do with the relationship between Beketov and myself. I would be making this post and assertion for change if you replaced Beketov with any other VHL member, in the same scenario.

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@gorlab I want to personally thank you for bringing this to the public eye. Even if the obvious isn’t acted on by the blue team, live simming was mentioned and this is a big big must for a sim league. If you don't have the time to live sim then you should not be a simmer.

Edited by Tape-to-Tape
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15 minutes ago, Jericho said:

You've ignored team build in everyone of these scenerios as well as overall league state

Neat point here, I wanted to look it up. 
 

S74: top TPE forward on the team by 3 OV

S72: lowest TPE forward on the team by 3 OV

 

I dunno what that means but it is fact

Edited by bigAL
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13 minutes ago, Jericho said:

So you're truely TRUELY terrible at data collection Gorlab. You've ignored team build in everyone of these scenerios as well as overall league state. Seems like an incredibly obvious case of confirmation bias that you'll ignore because you have no idea how incredibly complicated data collection is.

 

I'm no data collection expert, sir. I will retort your fuckery with the age-old adage:

 

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.

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Just now, gorlab said:

 

I'm no data collection expert, sir. I will retort your fuckery with the age-old adage:

 

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.

Ok so you know you can't use a single data point to make a sweeping conclusion like that right? That's literally not how anything works. You have to look at a variety of factors, like how strong his team is in relation to the rest of the league, how strong goalies are relative to scorers on his opponents, if any major trades did anything weird. How well prepared was her for depreciation in his later seasons. This is just scratching the surface. This is like saying I'm the greatest goalie in the VHLM because I've never lost a game before. The part where I've only played 3 games would be something to consider.

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4 minutes ago, gorlab said:

 

I'm no data collection expert, sir. I will retort your fuckery with the age-old adage:

 

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.

Also the duck quote is basically you saying "Muh feels"

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Just now, Jericho said:

Ok so you know you can't use a single data point to make a sweeping conclusion like that right? That's literally not how anything works. You have to look at a variety of factors, like how strong his team is in relation to the rest of the league, how strong goalies are relative to scorers on his opponents, if any major trades did anything weird. How well prepared was her for depreciation in his later seasons. This is just scratching the surface. This is like saying I'm the greatest goalie in the VHLM because I've never lost a game before. The part where I've only played 3 games would be something to consider.

 

 

79U9z1U.gif

 

 

then go do your own analysis and fuck outta my thread

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Just now, gorlab said:

 

 

79U9z1U.gif

 

 

then go do your own analysis and fuck outta my thread

Ok My analysis:

 

Gorlab isn't smart enough to make sweeping statements like this. My evidence is this thread.

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8 minutes ago, Sonnet said:

 

I mean...yeah, but I don't think this issue specifically needs to go so deep. The bottom line is that something seems a little off (this obviously isn't a foolproof, definitive conclusion- just a worrying observation), and the solution to fix it is laughably simple.

 

If it weren't as easy as "yeah, we probably should be streaming sims anyway," I think you'd have a more valid point. But as it stands, I think this is overall pretty moot.

as someone with a bit more inside baseball, simming already takes a decent amount of time. The simmers are all dudes in their 30s who have a lot going on and adding a headache because Gorlab is paranoid again isn't worth justifying. He was like this in the 40s, he clearly hasn't grown up as much as the rest of us since then. We already stream the playoffs when the simmer is in that and it's a big hassle. For those it makes sense because a few games are super indicative of success or failure, but rigging a 72 game season would take so much extra time to the point where it's unfeasible. He'd have to account not only for individual stats, but also team stats and he'd have to resim every single time for games were things went his way, and make sure his opponents didn't also do just as well in that sim.

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42 minutes ago, Sonnet said:

 

Yeah, I want to give every last benefit of the doubt that I possibly can, but that kind of a trend isn't something to fuck around with.

 

If there's nothing to hide, there's no reason not to livestream and archive the sims. Doing so would add literally add four clicks to the process of simming:

  • 2 clicks to double click OBS
  • 1 click to "Start Streaming"
  • 1 click to "Stop Streaming"

If something like this is even a remote concern (as it was in the past when Devise's Toronto teams were popping off in the playoffs, but he had no problem livestreaming once concerns were raised), then we should be doing everything in our power to make sure things are as fair as possible.

 

Shit, maybe people will even learn a thing or two from watching STHS streams to knock out a bit of that training headache.

Seems reasonable.

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44 minutes ago, Sonnet said:

 

Yeah, I want to give every last benefit of the doubt that I possibly can, but that kind of a trend isn't something to fuck around with.

 

If there's nothing to hide, there's no reason not to livestream and archive the sims. Doing so would add literally add four clicks to the process of simming:

  • 2 clicks to double click OBS
  • 1 click to "Start Streaming"
  • 1 click to "Stop Streaming"

If something like this is even a remote concern (as it was in the past when Devise's Toronto teams were popping off in the playoffs, but he had no problem livestreaming once concerns were raised), then we should be doing everything in our power to make sure things are as fair as possible.

 

Shit, maybe people will even learn a thing or two from watching STHS streams to knock out a bit of that training headache.

this up here GIF by Chord Overstreet

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Live simulations should do the trick, nice work with the research Gorlab.

 

Everybody just wants a league where they know every TPE they've earned is boosting their team in someway instead of just doing a bunch of work to get the site more active and let the commissioners write a story for us, but that's my inter-sceptic talking. As long as it looks fair nobody is going to complain right? These numbers don't look fair at all and a person like John Wick should be simming more ;)

 

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1 minute ago, Sonnet said:

 

My initial point still stands- even if it's unfeasible, even if it should be out of the question. If there's nothing to hide, click four extra buttons and stream the process and posts like this will stop showing up. I don't know why people think that's a big hassle.

 

Could even have a couple of the mangers watch the sim live on Discord to confirm the results?

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Just now, Sonnet said:

 

My initial point still stands- even if it's unfeasible, even if it should be out of the question. If there's nothing to hide, click four extra buttons and stream the process and posts like this will stop showing up. I don't know why people think that's a big hassle.

Ok let's entertain this logic line. So the way a simmer would cheat would be to trial and error the results until they came out favorably to them. So if they stream it in theory they couldn't do that right? Well if we're giving them the infinite time you seem to think a bunch of dudes in their thirties have, what's to stop them from recording the fake sim and then streaming that and acting like it's live? You could ask them to do it at a time where people are around so they have to interact with chat but now you're dictating which hours the sim can be to people who already have adult-level commitments and may or may not be available at those times 7 days a week.

 

The "Well we can eliminate 100% doubt if we add these restrictions for things we've never had an issue with" is the same argument people make with voter ID laws for voter fraud, and those get squashed for similar reasons.

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It's not the fact that we actually believe they're sitting around acting like gods but we as a league deserve results we can all agree with and if more and more people are getting upset something needs to happen to ease our minds, maybe use a new sim engine? 

Edited by 16z
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1 minute ago, Jericho said:

Well if we're giving them the infinite time you seem to think a bunch of dudes in their thirties have, what's to stop them from recording the fake sim and then streaming that and acting like it's live?

they go into discord and send a message, gorlab said it

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