Time for a change in simming

[Gustav 6,092]

A couple things:

 

-I agree that the simmers should be more accountable. I do trust them and I'm not going to advocate for live sims because I think there's cheating going on...because I don't. I see the merits of doing it live and certainly wouldn't be against it (as in, would be willing to support it in a BoG thread) if that's what's supported by the community as a whole.

 

-We also don't know what's going on in other people's lives and I think it's incredibly selfish to demand that simmers go out of their way in their own personal lives to do things differently...but I will concede that if the ways to stream that have been listed here are viable, that shouldn't be too much of an issue. So this point doesn't really matter, I guess it just applies to how this started out and how it's gone in the past with people outright demanding sims at exact times every day and such.

 

-There's no reason this thread, and genchat, can't have this conversation in a civil manner. I'm not going to point fingers but some people should be ashamed of themselves for how they've chosen to go about their arguments--personal attacks, from anyone, to anyone, are never OK and will never lead to a productive conversation. Everyone can see this thread and everyone can read genchat. Do you think a newer member is going to click into VHL general tonight and see the league as a kind and welcoming place? Clean up your act. 

[Siddhus 72]

5 minutes ago, Esso2264 said:

LINE UP TIME

 

Aloe Dear-Chris Hylands-Taro Tsujimoto

Onde Sandstorm-Dakota Lamb-John Leclair II

Red Lite-Timothy Brown-Guy Lesieur

Frank Funk Jr-Cabe McJake-Markus Nygren

 

Alex Letang-Randy Marsh

Hulk Hogan Jr-Matty Socks

Muff Beav-Cowboy Prout

 

Jean Pierre Camus

Doug Dimmadome

Smh I should’ve posted, maybe had a chance at the thread team : shock: 

[a_Ferk 760]

1 minute ago, Siddhus said:

Smh I should’ve posted, maybe had a chance at the thread team : shock: 

I think it was based on who was recently browsing, I haven't posted in the thread

[.sniffuM 1,741]

https://www.noracooks.com/vegan-meatloaf/

 

surprisingly good tbh

[Esso2264 772]

2 minutes ago, .sniffuM said:

https://www.noracooks.com/vegan-meatloaf/

 

surprisingly good tbh

i feel like you should add some bacon bits

[oilmandan 686]

Not saying I think he did and not saying I don’t think he did, but a massive part of any leagues credibility is on the shoulders of the simming team, and even if the accusations are truly unfounded, maybe it is time to look at more “transparent” ways of simming. 
 

If one person is saying they are questioning things, you know there are plenty more that are thinking it. And hopefully saying if you don’t like it, leave won’t be the end solution 

[rory 1,759]

2 minutes ago, Esso2264 said:

i feel like you should add some bacon bits

It is a clearly a vegan meatloaf you BIRD

[a_Ferk 760]

Just now, rory said:

It is a clearly a vegan meatloaf you BIRD

What if the bacon bits were also vegan

[Lefty_S 91]

1 minute ago, rory said:

It is a clearly a vegan meatloaf you BIRD

that sounds like a you problem

[Esso2264 772]

1 minute ago, a_Ferk said:

What if the bacon bits were also vegan

pretty sure pigs are vegan

[BOOM 8,401]

2 minutes ago, Esso2264 said:

pretty sure pigs are vegan

 

I've seen "Deadwood". They aren't.

[Peace 1,518]

5 minutes ago, BOOM said:

 

I've seen "Deadwood". They aren't.

I've seen a pig devour a bird that got stuck in the mud IRL. 

They're fucking vicious dude.

Edited February 22, 2021 by Peace

[Advantage 2,769]

Interesting that Devise simmed last year and Lahtinen won MVP and Best Two-Way forward.

[Advantage 2,769]

For what it's worth (ignoring Gorlab's continuous pitchforks) I do feel live simming is worth discussing if the sim team can manage it.

 

Not because I think Beketov has cheated, but rather because then we all don't have to hear about "cheating" implications.

[Red 499]

1 hour ago, Jericho said:

99% of the league is reasonably sure nothing weird is going on

This is definitely not true

1 hour ago, Jericho said:

Providing one data point and drawing conclusions from it that you can't accurately make are not a good enough reason to make rigging claims. This is the claims of one person who made a post long enough that a few people who have no idea how the scientific method works got on board and people are acting like they've cracked the case wide open. This is not data, it should not be treated as such.

I think the evidence that gorlab has provided and the claims he's made are completely valid and I don't think you need to go too in depth to see that there's something fishy goin on.

 

Really in Lahtinen's case there are 3 things that I believe mainly contribute to his production, his TPE/build, his ice time and the quality of minutes he's getting (1st line mins 2nd line mins etc.). Out of all the evidence that gorlabs provided what looks most sus to me, lol, is Lahtinen's last three seasons where he went from 123 points to 99 points then 121 points. The reason why this is sus is because he played all three seasons with Moscow, he was placed on the exact same lines given the exact same minutes each season and his build remained EXACTLY the same in all three seasons since he was fighting off regression.

In these three seasons the only thing that changed was the simmer and nothing else, and it just so happens that Lahtinen was much more successful when Beketov was simming then when devise was. 

You don't need a "scientific method" to draw conclusions from this because this evidence isn't trying to prove that Beketov is 100% guilty. All this evidence does is show a suspicious pattern that allows us to raise concerns and offer solutions. Just because the evidence doesn't prove Beketov is 100% guilty doesn't mean that the evidence shown is completely meaningless or invalid. I think at the very least there should be live sims and if Beketov doesn't want to do them then someone else should.

[Jericho 917]

Just now, RedSus said:

This is definitely not true

I think the evidence that gorlab has provided and the claims he's made are completely valid and I don't think you need to go too in depth to see that there's something fishy goin on.

 

Really in Lahtinen's case there are 3 things that I believe mainly contribute to his production, his TPE/build, his ice time and the quality of minutes he's getting (1st line mins 2nd line mins etc.). Out of all the evidence that gorlabs provided what looks most sus to me, lol, is Lahtinen's last three seasons where he went from 123 points to 99 points then 121 points. The reason why this is sus is because he played all three seasons with Moscow, he was placed on the exact same lines given the exact same minutes each season and his build remained EXACTLY the same in all three seasons since he was fighting off regression.

In these three seasons the only thing that changed was the simmer and nothing else, and it just so happens that Lahtinen was much more successful when Beketov was simming then when devise was. 

You don't need a "scientific method" to draw conclusions from this because this evidence isn't trying to prove that Beketov is 100% guilty. All this evidence does is show a suspicious pattern that allows us to raise concerns and offer solutions. Just because the evidence doesn't prove Beketov is 100% guilty doesn't mean that the evidence shown is completely meaningless or invalid. I think at the very least there should be live sims and if Beketov doesn't want to do them then someone else should.

 

You have to stop calling this evidence, it's literally the furthest thing from it. You can't look at one set of numbers and draw ANY conclusion from them. Overall league scoring goes up and down from season to season. I have seen seasons where the points lead was as high as 180 and as low as 99. There is a reason you have to look at these stats in context and need WAY more data points to draw these conclusions.

 

Plus he won Best two way forward and MVP in a season he wasn't simming, which is apparently all you need to prove a point so there I guess?

[Advantage 2,769]

7 minutes ago, Jericho said:

 

You have to stop calling this evidence, it's literally the furthest thing from it. You can't look at one set of numbers and draw ANY conclusion from them. Overall league scoring goes up and down from season to season. I have seen seasons where the points lead was as high as 180 and as low as 99. There is a reason you have to look at these stats in context and need WAY more data points to draw these conclusions.

 

Plus he won Best two way forward and MVP in a season he wasn't simming, which is apparently all you need to prove a point so there I guess?

I mean, to be fair, I do tend to agree that the numbers provided do look a little odd.  With that being said, obviously variation can happen in a sim engine that is anything but consistent.  All in all, I think the point that most of the league is making, and I agree, isn't that Beketov is a cheater but rather that perhaps we need to look at more transparent ways to simming the league and whether it is feasible for the team in charge of doing it.  If it is, live simming will always be a better way of doing things.

 

I don't think Bek has done anything wrong, but ultimately I do think the league should look at live simming at this point.  

Edited February 22, 2021 by Advantage

[jhatty8 662]

"Nothing to hide, nothing to fear"

 

 

In general though, people should probably be doing their own research before coming to some of the conclusions here. This isn't the place you should be gathering sources or data from. 

[Red 499]

21 minutes ago, Jericho said:

 

You have to stop calling this evidence, it's literally the furthest thing from it. You can't look at one set of numbers and draw ANY conclusion from them. Overall league scoring goes up and down from season to season. I have seen seasons where the points lead was as high as 180 and as low as 99. There is a reason you have to look at these stats in context and need WAY more data points to draw these conclusions.

 

Plus he won Best two way forward and MVP in a season he wasn't simming, which is apparently all you need to prove a point so there I guess?

maybe evidence wasn't the right word but even if everything I just said was wrong what's the harm in live simming? I think it's better than doing nothing and just ignoring this because in the small chance that Beketov is cheating doing nothing will allow him to continue cheating for god knows how long.

 

Edited February 22, 2021 by RedSus

[Jericho 917]

Just now, RedSus said:

maybe evidence wasn't the right word but even if everything I just said was wrong what's the harm in live simming? I think it's better than doing nothing and just ignoring this because in the small chance that Beketov is cheating doing nothing will allow him to continue doing it for god knows how long.

 

 

So a couple of things. One: The simmers swap leagues every year. Two: Arguing for live simming is one thing, arguing that Bek is cheating is a very different thing. Gorlab pulled his conclusions out of his ass, and Beketov shouldn't be mentioned in the discussion for the remainder of the discussion. Live simming as a discussion is all good, I personally disagree but there's a discussion to be had.

 

My issue was ENTIRELY with the way this was presented. From the the baseless accusations to the horribly misrepresented data this was completely inappropriate. The suggestion could have been made without dragging a storied member through the mud for no reason.

[Red 499]

1 minute ago, Jericho said:

 

So a couple of things. One: The simmers swap leagues every year. Two: Arguing for live simming is one thing, arguing that Bek is cheating is a very different thing. Gorlab pulled his conclusions out of his ass, and Beketov shouldn't be mentioned in the discussion for the remainder of the discussion. Live simming as a discussion is all good, I personally disagree but there's a discussion to be had.

 

My issue was ENTIRELY with the way this was presented. From the the baseless accusations to the horribly misrepresented data this was completely inappropriate. The suggestion could have been made without dragging a storied member through the mud for no reason.

alright fair enough

[Dil 1,744]

I actually have some proof that bek rigs the sims. About 3 seasons ago.. hold on there’s someone at my door. Let me just go and che-

Edited February 22, 2021 by Dil

[Kisslinger 339]

 

[Rayzor_7 741]

Okay this is excessive on so many things. You want to know how long it took me to see what variable was thrown out? 5 minutes. 

It takes 5 mins to check the end of season lines across the last 3 seasons and not that they were ALL different

He played with 6 different wingers and that's without going through and checking midseason games to see other line changes. 

 

You'll also notice that across the last three seasons, he was the #1 forward in overall with varying amounts of depth on the team.

 

You'll also notice 76 is the only time he has someone on the team on offence close in OV, which oh wait, played as center on the other lines. 

 

S74 sees 10 players break 100 points, 75 sees 3, 76 sees 8, 73 saw 9 and 72 saw just 1.

What I see here is normal STHS fluctuation paired with an Expansion happening. We saw league scoring go from 189 GFA/GAA in S71 to 210 in S72 to 223 in 74 and stabilize around 230 in 75/76.

 

If you want to toss data and facts around then you also need to bring to the table things that can disprove your theory. I have nothing against Gorlab here but you need the big picture. 

 

All of this said, personally I call bullshit that Beketov would care to or want to rig regular season sims. On top of this the data I've provided shows logical reasoning for it to be false. 

Now lastly, I do understand the calls for live simming. I personally don't care but I do encourage it as it shows another form of transparency for the league as people are obviously uptight now. So however this gets addressed I know blue team and BoG will make a decision that makes sense.

 

[tcookie 672]

I don't think what was presented by gorlab here is completely wild... I mean there's certainly a correlation between Thompson/Lahtinen's strongest seasons and Beketov simming. But it's also far from concrete evidence. Lahtinen's career looks no different consistency-wise than half the guys I just wrote top-75 writeups for. There's a mountain of evidence that his career curve is pretty normal.

 

His production going from 123 - 99 - 121 isn't weird. The 99-point season was a down year for the entire leaderboard compared to the two 120-point seasons. His final rank in league scoring is 2nd - 4th - 1st. That's not weird. A scorer build player scoring 41 goals and not being on the league leaderboard for points in their 3rd season isn't weird.

 

And with the rookie year thing. There's such a far cry from "well if I were manipulating results it's logical to not have him lead the league in scoring every year" and a freaking 20 point season. Especially since we are also familiar with rookies being PPG. We are certainly familiar with rookies scoring more than 20 points.

 

There are some things that are ... misrepresented, perhaps unintentionally, but definitely misrepresented ... in the Thompson analysis.

 

"10 goals more than any other player, and coincidentally enough 60 goals was needed for him to hit 400 career goals/points? Amazing how things worked out just right for our best people."

-- In fact 38 goals was needed for him to hit 400 career goals. Thompson would've had to have been seen as a mortal lock to score 38 goals given how his career went. This is very, very far from things "working out just right", should not even be mentioned as a possible cause of suspicion.

 

"Either way, Thompson beasts tf out and scores 76 goals and 150 points in his sophmore season..... LOL.  2nd in point, 2nd in goals.... as a sophmore."

-- With the random shot (kind of) at "first-gens who have only been here for 6 seasons" in the FAQ section, I assume gorlab doesn't need a history lesson from one, so why not mention that the player scored 79 goals, 174 points, and was 1st in goals and points that year was also a sophomore? A weirdly high scoring year for sure. Weird that Thompson dominated as a sophomore? Another soph outscored him by 24 points so that's a hard claim to make.

 

Is live simming a good idea... absolutely

More important than sims being at a relatively consistent time... IMO, absolutely; the integrity of the league and anything you can do to ensure it should always be top priority, so I would've said this whether this thread popped up or not

Do I think Bek was cheating or that this is statistically significant evidence... not even close

Edited February 22, 2021 by tcookie