Age is not just a number

[VattghernCZ 987]

While I'm enjoying my hiking trip up north, I have a lot of time to think. Among other things, to think about a media spot. And a lot of time to write too, considering the nights are still pretty short up here. It's almost 10 p.m. now, and while the Sun has already set, there's still enough light to read a book. But I'm offline and can't do much research, so the media spotcan't really be anything data-related. So I'm going to piggyback on a comment I posted a few weeks ago: What would depreciation and retirement look like in my world? Let's come up with some specific numbers too, rather than just talk in abstract.

 

First, let's say there are two players—one is a player of a high-earning member who averages 160 TPE a season; let's call them a very imaginative name—Player A. The second player is a player of a member who maybe isn't interested in giving this game too much effort and averages, let's say, 70 TPE a season. Let's call them, you wouldn't guess, Player B. Now we have two realistic earning patterns to follow.

 

The first thing to establish for this system is age—it matters now! Because in this model, depreciation is based on player age. A player joining in their draft-minus-2 season (after trade deadline) is 17 years old; a player joining in their draft-minus-1 season is 18 years old. One season equals one year of age. To follow the career of Player A and Player B, let's say they both had 30 base TPE and joined the VHL between the VHLM draft and the start of the VHLM season.

 

Age-18 season

Both play the season in the VHLM. Player A finishes the season with 190 TPE, or rather with 200 TPE with the +10, and is ready to move to the E for age-19 season. Player B ends the season with 110 TPE including the +10, and will be set to dominate the M in their age-19 season.

 

Age-19 season

No depreciation. Player A finishes the season with 375 TPE, including the training camp, ready to move to the VHL next season. Player B finishes with 195 TPE, including the training camp, and will move to the M for his age-20 season. I will automatically include the training camp in the following seasons, without mentioning it.

 

Age-20 season

No depreciation. Player A moves to the VHL and is at 550 TPE after their rookie season. Player B ends their E season with 280 TPE and remains in the E.

 

Age-21 season

No depreciation. Player A is at 725 TPE, Player B at 365 and chooses to stay in the E for one more season, because they want to dominate and they like the locker room.

 

Age-22 season

No depreciation. Player A is at 900 TPE, ready to really break out in the VHL. Player B is at 450 TPE, getting ready for their rookie season in the VHL.

 

Age-23 season

No depreciation. Player A is at 1075 TPE, becoming a key player on their team. Player B maybe struggled a bit in their rookie season, but with 535 TPE now, they're ready to provide some depth scoring.

 

Age-24 season

No depreciation. Player A is really entering their prime and becoming one of the league's elite players, finishing the season with 1250 TPE. Player B is finding their place on the team's secondary units and is now at 620 TPE.

 

Age-25 season

This is the last year without depreciation. Player A chooses to bank the whole year’s earnings, so they finish the season with 1250 TPA and 1425 TPE (175 banked). Player B chooses not to bank and ends the season as a high end complementary player with 705 TPA(E).

 

Age-26 season

This is where the depreciation hits the first time. Not much, we're talking 4%. Player A’s 1250 TPA is now at 1200, they use 50 banked to build it back to 1250 TPA, continue banking and end the season with 1600 TPE (300 banked). Player B’s 705 TPA builds depreciates to 677. They still continue to get better, ending the season with a 762 TPA build with 790 TPE.

 

Age-27 season

The depreciation gets progressively higher, I'm thinking +50% every season. So before age-27 season, it's 6%. Player A’s 1250 TPA build is at 1175 TPA now. They build it back to 1250 TPA, continue banking and ends the season with 1775 TPE (400 banked). Player B depreciates to 716 TPA. They continue applying and end the season getting slightly better, at 801 TPA and 875 TPE.

 

Age-28 season

In my model, the players' careers are longer. The depreciation is now 9%. Player A regresses to 1138 TPA, they rebuild it to 1250 TPA and continue banking, ending the season with 1950 TPE (463 banked). For player B, this Is the last year they're able to stay on top of the depreciation. Their build starts at 729 TPA. Without banking, they finish the season with 814 TPA, 960 TPE.

 

Age-29 season

13.5% depreciation sounds rough, but wait, it's going to get even worse. Player A starts at 1081 TPA, but with lots of banked TPE, the member is able to rebuild them back to 1250 TPA. They end the season with 2125 TPE (469 banked) and this Is the last season they're able to outearn the depreciation. For player B, the outlook is less optimistic as they regress to 704 TPA and end the season with 789 TPA, 1045 TPE.

 

Age-30 season

In the NHL, a lot of players start to think about retirement at 30 and their performance can fall off the cliff at any time. For us, age-30 season means 20.3% depreciation. Player A falls down to 996 TPA. But thanks to responsible banking by the member, they're able to build them up again. The member wants to have at least one more season of being one of the league's best, so they fully restore the player to 1250 TPA and continue banking, they end the season with 2300 TPE (390 banked). Player B drops to 628 TPA and is at 713 TPA by the end, with 1130 TPE.

 

Age-31 season

Now let's see what the 30.5% shafting does. Player A drops to 869 TPA. Seeing this, the member decides to not fully restore the player, but to take a slight step back and only build the player up to 1100 TPA and continue banking. With this strategy, they end the season with 2475 TPE (334 banked). Player B sees a dropoff to 496 TPA. Sounds nasty, but they decide to give it one more go and to carry on, probably signing with a rebuilding team and ending the season as a 571 TPA player, with the total of 1215 TPE.

 

Age-32 season

With 45.8% depreciation, we're entering the unsustainable territory for the most. Player A comes crashing down to 596 TPA. The member does the maths and chooses to apply 304 of their banked TPE to build their player up to respectable 900 TPA and continues banking to end the season with 2650 TPE (207 banked). Player B sees a brutal drop to 309 TPA, meaning they're no longer eligible to play in the VHL and retire after their age-31 season with 648 VHL games under their belt.

 

Age-33 season

Before the season, player A is hit with 68.7% depreciation to turn their 900 TPA player into a 282 TPA player, but with their banked TPE, they're able to build the player up to 489 TPA to stay for one more season. They know it's mathematically not possible to come back for an age-34 season, the depreciation is over 100%. So they keep applying their earnings, and retire as a 664 TPA player with 2825 TPE to their name and 1008 VHL regular season games worth of experience.

 

I must admit I don't like the fact you are forced to retire after what's usually the two best seasons of your career. I'd like to see a regression of star players towards the end of their career. This system I'm suggesting forces you to retire once you start the season below 350 TPA or after your age-33 season because of maths. Maybe it would be more realistic to  increase the depreciation by 25% instead of by 50%, but I think the careers would then probably be too long. I logging between 576 and 1008 games, depending on your earning, sounds about right. I don't think it's that important for all high earning members to play exactly 576 games, now that it is possible to play 648 for re-creates.

 

Also notice I haven't talked about depreciation fighters. Maybe there could be few? The cheapest one would make next year's depreciation only 40% higher than the last one, the middle one 30% higher, and the most expensive one only 20% higher? I'd have to do the maths to figure out if these numbers are balanced, when it would be possible to buy these, and how much would they cost, but I'm not doing it right now. That's all I had on my mind for now. Tommorrow I'm arriving in Trondheim and spending the weekend there, I should be able to find a WiFi to post this.

Edited August 24 by VattghernCZ
1500+ words, claiming 3× 6 tpe

[VattghernCZ 987]

Claim 1/3 for W.E. 8/25

[VattghernCZ 987]

Claim 2/3 for W.E. 9/1

[VattghernCZ 987]

Claim 3/3 for W.E. 9/8