Post-Mock Draft Analysis: S83

[Gustav 6,417]

Hi everyone! I hope you enjoyed the latest iteration of Gustav's Mock Draft as much as I did. You may remember that last season I wrote an article where I compared how my S82 mock draft did compared to many others I've done. You also may remember that it didn't quite stack up to some of my others. 

 

Spoiler alert: S83 also doesn't stack up to some others, but it is marginally better than S82 (and my guesses about why Vancouver and Malmo traded up proved accurate).

 

We'll start off by listing the players my S83 mock predicted correctly:

 Scotty Sundin (#1)

 Brandt Fuhr (#2)

 Igor Molotov (#3)

 Ivan Retoslav (#12)

 Landon Wolanin (#13)

 Sock Monkey (#18)

 Deron Nesbitt (#20)

 

That's seven players, up by two from last season for a grand total of 21.9% of picks guessed correctly. That places S83's mock 4th out of the 6 that I've done. It moves down to 5th, though, when considering the number predicted within one pick of their actual selection, as I only guessed 6 picks correctly in S69 but placed 13 players within one spot.

 

In terms of overall accuracy, my average guess was 3.53 picks away from that player's actual selection. This ranks S83 4th among all of my mocks.

 

In terms of consistency, the standard deviation of each pick's distance from its real outcome was 2.99. As with the last number, the lower the better! This was the category where S83 did the best, ranking it 3rd.

 

 

Numbers to beat:

Number of picks guessed correctly: 17 (S66 mock draft)

Percentage of picks guessed correctly: 41.7% (S70 mock draft)

Number of picks guessed within one: 22 (S66)

Percentage of picks guessed within one: 58.3% (S70)

Mean distance from actual pick: 1.63 (S70)

Standard deviation of mean distance: 1.93 (S70)