VHLM Playoff Predictions

[Grape 739]

The VHLM playoffs are very much under way, with the first round ending as soon as tonight. My original predictions have pretty much all been proven wrong and discarded, as STHS decided to be unoriginal and copy paste every series. With that being said, it seems only right to provide a relatively in depth rationale for each series prediction, and give a new one, which STHS will undoubtedly try and prove wrong again.

 

Philadelphia Reapers (1) vs Saskatoon Wild (8)

Current Series: 3-2 Philadelphia
Previous Series Prediction: Saskatoon wins in six

Rationale:

 

Philadelphia is by far the biggest fraud in the league. Their roster shares the make-up of the bottom teams in the league, and yet, they have finished first, pretty much entirely due to incredibly strong goaltending and overall synergy. Based on my statistics, Philadelphia’s forward core ranks 9th and their defensemen 10th. The only thing that makes this team look competent on paper is their goaltending, which ranks first. Their record is somewhat inflated as well due to playing in a weak division, although being a weak team themself, is not really a good explanation. Saskatoon is not much better by comparison, but are statistically a stronger team than Philadelphia, despite being sellers. Their forward and defense group rank 7th, while goaltending is at 8th, with a below average goalie in the pipes. So this series really came down to a battle between a team with not much of a goalie vs a team with only a goalie, and I believed that Saskatoon would have the edge. Historically, the team with the top goalie ends up fizzling away during the postseason, but as it stands now, Philadelphia controls their own fate, holding the series lead and could end it by tonight. These teams have kept things close, and I don’t doubt that that will continue going forward. I feel that Saskatoon will complete the upset, winning the next two straight and moving onto the next round.

Prediction: Saskatoon wins in seven

 

Las Vegas Aces (2) vs Ottawa Lynx (7)

Current Series: 3-2 Las Vegas

Series Prediction: Las Vegas wins in four

Rationale:

 

Nuclear bomb versus coughing baby. Las Vegas comes in as the best team statistically and strong contenders for the Cup. Their forward core is second only to Houston, and not by much. Same can be said about their defenseman, being but a step behind San Diego for first, but combined, is a group that tops both, as well as the rest of the league, and should be nigh unstoppable this postseason. Emphasis on should. Ottawa has been the most middle of the pack team statistically all season. Fifth ranked forwards, sixth ranked defensemen, fifth ranked overall, and 10th ranked goaltender. This team was carried early on by two players, who continued to play like absolute gamebusters, and while depth began to emerge late into the season, doubts were high that they’d be able to do anything. This looked like a series that Las Vegas would just roll through and kick back and watch every other series battle it out, yet Ottawa has forced this series to be competitive. The offense, which was somewhat cold for the first 3 games, has begun to heat up and make the Aces sweat. Even still, I don’t believe Ottawa will push Las Vegas to the brink. Good teams usually find a way to win, and Las Vegas will find a way.

 

Prediction: Las Vegas in six

 

Mexico City Kings (3) vs Miami Marauders (6)

Current Series: 3-2 Miami

Series Prediction: Miami wins in five

Rationale:

 

Mexico City is very much like Ottawa, being a relatively middling team. Their forwards rank sixth and defensemen fifth, overall ranking 6th. The thing that set this team apart was goaltending, having the 2nd best goalie in the league, which just goes to show how much goaltending plays a factor in a team’s success. A good goaltender makes you Mexico, a subpar one makes you Ottawa. Overall, the Kings are not really that strong of a team, and when compared to Miami, who statistically places with the top teams of the league, it should come as no surprise that I saw the Marauders beating Mexico City rather handedly. Miami has the 4th ranked forwards, defensemen, and goaltender. Now, fourth and sixth don’t necessarily sound too far apart on paper, but the difference between those two is absolutely massive. The rating system scales teams via overall (0-100, 100 being the highest). The Mexico City Kings have an overall of 42. Miami, on the other hand, has an overall of 88. That is a difference of 46 overall. At some point, Miami has to live up to their potential, and simply overpower the inferior team in Mexico City. I believe that will happen tonight, with Miami closing out the series and moving on.

 

Prediction: Miami wins in six

 

San Diego Marlins (4) vs Houston Bulls (5)

Current Series: 3-2 Houston

Series Prediction: Houston wins in six

Rationale:

 

As what typically occurs with the 4th vs 5th round, these teams are the closest in comparison to one another. Houston’s forwards are about 0.3 overall higher than San Diego, while San Diego’s defensemen are about 3 overall higher than Houston, with the teams overall ranking with Houston at 2nd and San Diego at 3rd. Houston does have a much better goaltender in San Diego, which helps separate the teams somewhat. The big difference I see in these teams comes from depth. Depth is something that is hard to necessarily rate, and while the statistics do take them into account, the value it provides is hard to necessarily determine. On one hand, it could explain how Philadelphia did so well, but on the other, they did well last season with basically no depth whatsoever, but this season it appears that depth reigns supreme, and that is why I believe that Houston will eventually triumph over San Diego. However, I believe that I discounted San Diego a tad too much in the original prediction. These teams truly are neck and neck in pretty much all categories. I believe that San Diego will push back against Houston and bring them to the brink, only for the Bulls to triumph over them and finish them off after a hard fought series.

 

Prediction: Houston wins in seven

(1054 words, 2 weeks of claiming)

[Hogan 1,425]

Vegas in six what the hell??

[LucyXpher 1,578]

Great article, it'll be fun to see how tonight's sims go!  

[Grape 739]

Claiming 2nd week