Malmo and Helsinki Swing 13-Piece Trade

[tcookie 927]

Late yesterday, the Malmo Nighthawks and Helsinki Titans came together for a 13-piece trade that drew some surprised reaction from around the league. It was the second trade of Lexie Leitner’s tenure as Malmo GM, and has certainly garnered some attention just for the sheer volume of the deal, even though it was entirely draft picks and prospects changing hands.

 

The full trade saw Malmo receiving prospects Bret Weier, Narnia Shaw, Ty Duke, and Xhekajs Middletoe from Helsinki in exchange for nine draft picks - the entirety of Malmo’s remaining S97, S98, and S99 draft pick collection after acquiring Lucy Leitner earlier in the off-season. That’s Malmo’s 3rd and 4th rounders in S97 and S98, their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders in S99, and Riga’s 2nd rounder in S98.

 

Although a shocking amount of volume was sent to Helsinki draft pick wise, it essentially boils down to an S99 first-rounder, an S98 second-rounder, and an S99 second-rounder, for the four prospects. Of course, you never know for sure what will become of the later-round selections, but VHL history does not look favourably upon 3rd and 4th round picks.

 

In the past 10 VHL Entry Drafts, only 8% of players drafted after the 3rd round (14 out of 173) have even played a single VHL game, while only 3 of 173 have reached 600 TPE and only 1 of 173 has reached 1000 (Toronto star forward Diego Machado). It does appear that a few members of the S93 draft class will be making their VHL debuts this season, but certainly the trend is clear that late-round draft picks are lottery tickets in the VHL. Even going all the way back to the beginning of the hybrid era, only 13.3% of players drafted after the 3rd round played in the VHL, 5.3% hit 600 TPE, and only 4 of 299 hit 1000 TPE. Most of the successes are loaded into the deeper-than-normal S84 and S86 classes. Adding six of these dart throws over three seasons for Helsinki does give them a chance at finding one of those rare players that does make it to the next level, but if you’re Malmo, odds are you probably aren’t going to miss those picks.

 

So, Malmo has opted to punt on the next three draft classes, in return picking up four young players that are much closer to pro ready. Narnia Shaw is the big name of the bunch, having been selected 8th overall in the S96 VHL draft. Shaw has compiled 105 points over 144 VHLM games in the past two seasons and is pretty close to VHL ready; you’ll likely see them crack Malmo’s opening night roster this season. They’re an offensive defenseman who needs to work on the defensive side of the game, to be sure, but on the other hand, they might already be one of the best passers in the entire VHL.

 

The upside may not be quite the same with the other three players coming to Malmo, but there’s an interesting footnote here as all three of them have played under Leitner with the Halifax 21st at some point in their VHLM careers. Leitner and Assistant GM AJ Williams - who had a successful run as GM of the VHLM’s Houston Bulls himself - have notably good track records with developing good practice habits in prospects that aren’t necessarily can’t-miss players and getting the most out of them, so bringing in some players that they are familiar with seems like a good gamble. That ability served them well in the VHLM and was a big part of the reason their respective programs were successful.

 

Weier was drafted in the first round in S95 himself, but regressed from an 89-point season in the VHLM in S95 to just 50 points in S96 (although to be fair, the introduction of several players from the now-defunct VHLE played a role in that, too). Weier has a legitimate chance to make the Nighthawks roster out of training camp, although he might be best served with one more VHLM season. He’s a skill forward with a common playstyle for the VHL - a shoot-first player with a reliable two-way game - and just needs to develop his game in general to become a solid VHL contributor.

 

Ty Duke and Xhekajs Middletoe are longer shots, but certainly have the potential to be VHL players in the future as well. Duke, a second-round pick in S94, is a defense-first centre who does the little things right. After scoring 97 points with Halifax in S94, Duke suffered a serious injury that kept him out of all practice and games in S95, setting his development back some. But he was able to rejoin the 21st in S96 and put up a 29-goal, 62-point season and more importantly, get back to steadily improving his game. There is risk involved in a player like Duke, but he’s probably a season of steady development away from being a depth VHL player. Middletoe, a second rounder in S96, is still a project and feeling out his path to the VHL. He’s got some offensive skill and a little bit of edge to his game, with 17 goals, 33 points, and 138 hits to his name in Halifax last season. It seems more likely that he’s two years away than one, but like Duke, with consistent effort and steady development, there’s a VHL future to this player.

 

The Nighthawks have been a perennial regular season powerhouse, but they are going to be losing Savaisk Tzesar, Viktor Jensen, and Ronald Johnson MacWallace to retirement after the upcoming season. While they retain a promising core to build around in Phillip Rave, Lucy Leitner, and Jorgen Lovstrom - a true star at each position - the task of supporting those players will get more difficult, and acquiring four prospects closer to being VHL ready certainly fits their timeline better than waiting for draft picks that haven’t been made yet to turn into VHLers. Whether this move is able to successfully extend Malmo’s competitive window beyond S97 will depend a lot on whether or not the management tandem of Leitner and Williams can kickstart the development of the young talent coming to Malmo in this deal.

 

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1040 words or something, claiming for this week and next

[ace_five_ 461]

Very well written! Reading something like this is always way more insightful than just staring at player pages

[AJW 2,190]

Awesome article! Very well done

[LucyXpher 1,549]

Awesome breakdown!  Thanks for taking the time to write this up!  

[Gustav 6,460]

I don’t think Malmo made the right move on paper, but anyone reducing it to that is oversimplifying the situation. The ultimate goal of a GM is to serve the team. If the team is excited to spend this year competing for Malmo, then this is a deal that serves that purpose. Plenty of teams have chosen to keep their retirees for the sake of giving them the last run they deserve (Prague and LA come to mind in recent memory), and it’s only new this time in that the GM is new and chose to go further Devise than the others. 
 

Malmo is PROBABLY in long-term trouble if you ask me, but they were kind of there already. Everything is a trade-off here, and we’ll at least get a strong showing before the rebuild starts. 
 

I might add that it will also be interesting to see how that goes—it’s a real opportunity to build up from the ground and not many people get a slate this blank to work with. 

[JCarson 742]

Interesting article.  With any trade there are so many ways to view it.  With this one with so many pieces scattered across multiple seasons it will be interesting to see if someone maps out the full trade tree and puts together a definitive outcome of who won or lost this. I don't think we will know for some time and there comes a point where it only needs to provide impact in this season to be of value.  Either way it will be interesting to see how season 97 shakes out.

 

I give this article a 8 out of 10

[tcookie 927]

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