The Simmers Hate Me. Here's Why

[Gustav 6,417]

I've been in the VHL since S65, and I haven't won a championship yet. Which I'm totally not going to be weird about. No, why would I ever do that? I won two in the EFL, one with each of my players, and unless Seattle wins it all this season, I will have gone 0 for 2 here. But 0 for 2 doesn't tell the whole story, though. How likely is it that I would have gotten to this point?

 

-The VHLM had 8 teams in S65 and 12 teams in both S73 and S74, the seasons I was a part of it upon recreating.

-The VHL had 10 teams from S66-67, 12 teams from S68-72, and its current 16 teams from S73 onward. I played in the VHL every season other than S74, when Taro was in the minors.

 

Just based on sheer dumb luck, I would have a 1 in 10 chance of winning a championship in S66, and a 1 in 12 chance in S68, and so on. What happens if I put all of these together?

 

(7/8) * (9/10) * (11/12)^7 * (15/16)^8 = 0.256

 

This means that there is only about a 25% chance that I would have gone my entire VHL career up to this point without winning one--and that doesn't factor in things like highly active players like Taro almost always ending up on better VHLM teams, or the two seasons where Garcia played for Malmo while I GMed Davos (which I chose not to double-count because I took over with Davos in the toilet). 

 

Of course, a 25% chance that I would end up where I would be today doesn't prove anything numbers-wise, but until proven otherwise by a championship win I shall believe that this is a conspiracy against me.

[JardyB10 4,865]

Get your next player on Vasteras just to see what happens.