On the Outside, Looking Inside

[Gustav 6,418]

Welcome back, my friends, to the show that never ends! That's right--I've recreated! Art Vandelay is set to make a big difference in net for...well, somebody (hopefully), and I'm excited for what's in store for myself and the rest of the league as I watch a third player grow and develop. I've talked before about my thought process in creating a goaler--and in fact I think this would be the third article I use to talk about it if I were to mention it again here--but I have some other thoughts related to it that I'd like to put out there because the others don't quite cover it.

 

First, this is the first time in a few real-life years that I get to go through the early stages of my player's career without some sort of predetermined career path or conflict of interest--which is why I named this article what I did (it's actually a phrase from one of my favorite slower songs ever, from a hopefully familiar-looking album. Fun fact--the singer/bass player on that album went on to be a member of the first band I linked). I'm not a GM anymore! I am in this for me, and I am updating primarily for my own player's success. I have no idea where I'll be drafted, and I have no real idea what I plan to do at that point. I think a fair collection of career path-related goals for me is as follows, for any GM who cares enough to read this:

 

• I do want to play up as soon as possible...if I get starting time. It's no secret that I'm not a huge fan of the existence of the VHLE, and if I were a skater, I'd want to move up right away no matter what, but as a goaler I can't say that only 8 games in my rookie season is something that sounds appealing. At that point, why not see myself play more and avoid a season of depreciation along the way?
• Somewhat related to the first point, but not really--I'm OK with playing for a rebuilding team at the start so long as the team is able to improve with me. In other words, please run your team better than I ran Davos and I'll be happy. 
• I've never tested free agency before, and I signed career contracts with both of my prior players. I will NOT be signing a 6-season extension in my third season with Vandelay...
• ...but, I'm also not in the business of screwing over teams for no reason (and I realize the FA market is far more limited at my position than anywhere else). If I believe in your team's ability to compete for some length of time, I will be very open to sticking with that team for said length of time. If you manage to compete for my final 6 seasons, you very likely have me for those 6 seasons--just not all at once. 
• I don't have any super strong feelings for or against any teams in particular. Some (one in particular starts with a D, ends with a D, and has an "AVI" in the middle, but that's not the only one) I could certainly see myself playing for, and others (which I will keep to myself) I'm a bit less enthusiastic about, but I've never been one to try to strong-arm my player into going one way or another.

 

And yes, there's another point. I have this weird little nerd hypothesis that goaler success kind of varies by season, and that season may be a predictor of success. For example--S63 saw Kriketers and Pepper as the high-TPE guys who dominated the league forever. The second they retire? It's S64's Brick Wahl winning league MVP in a completely unprecedented season. The second Wahl retires? S68 players win the Shaw in four consecutive seasons. A Red Guy retires early, but Raymond Bernard lasts until S75...the third season of the career of one Jean Pierre Camus and the start of Chicago's rise to competitiveness. S76 is the start of the prime for S73 players...and guess which season wins each of the next three Shaws? Camus would win another later on as well, but as the only goaler left from S73. The trophy would change hands to S75 players in S79, and then back again once, but by that point players from S75 and S73 were both at complete builds and their season effectively made no difference. Players from S75 are gone after this season, so that leaves...what exactly? My prediction is that S79's Papa Emeritus and Em Em Flex will turn out to be fine, fine players in the next part of their careers--look for both to break out this season now that a lot of the top end has been removed.

 

More or less, what I'm saying is that your success as a goaler may be influenced by the abilities of the league's other goalers. If you're at 600 in a room of 400s, you'll be fine, but if you're at 600 in a room of 900s, you might have an issue.

 

Per this hypothesis, S80's power trio of Booberry/Lindbergh/Davis might be at a slight disadvantage, though I wouldn't anticipate that being too extreme. A group who might really be at a disadvantage, though, is the goalers from this season's draft class--Pearce, Utonium, Wumbo, and Dahl (maybe--we'll see, but maybe Arpa did the right thing in retiring after all). Just think--they'll have four seasons without the two from S79, but only two without the three from S80 due to the VHLE rule shift. Until the last two seasons of their careers, the top of the goaler market will be fairly saturated.

 

But Gustav, you're two seasons behind the S82 players! You're going to be terrible!

 

We'll see.

 

I feel like this might not be that awful for me. I'll have four seasons--basically the second half/prime of my career--without S80 in the way, and by the time that hits, my build will be just about complete. When the S80 players retire, I think I'll at least be above two S82 players in terms of TPA, with the difference being negligible between myself and the others (assuming I'm able to TPE whore as hard as I always have). Everyone's best seasons will (in my opinion) start at this point--but I've got two more at this level than everyone else. That's not to say that the S82 class won't catch up TPA-wise to S80 and see the same thing happen to them; that just doesn't really concern me as I'm focused on my career after S80 has come and gone. And that's not even to say I'm right about any of this! I haven't looked into it, I haven't run any numbers, I've just paid attention to who's on top and I have some theories about why.

 

 

1,150 words | good for 2 weeks

Edited March 4, 2022 by Gustav

[Alex 3,202]

DAVID!

[Tate 450]

I still love you even though you didn’t mention me. 
 

[Gustav 6,418]

Week 2

 

(pretend I posted this on the 6th; I'm an idiot)

Edited March 5, 2022 by Gustav

[CowboyinAmerica 2,889]

On 3/3/2022 at 10:29 PM, Gustav said:

My prediction is that S79's Papa Emeritus and Em Em Flex will turn out to be fine, fine players in the next part of their careers--look for both to break out this season now that a lot of the top end has been removed.

 

Per this hypothesis, S80's power trio of Booberry/Lindbergh/Davis might be at a slight disadvantage, though I wouldn't anticipate that being too extreme.

 

Just read this, enjoyed it and thought it was interesting. The classes ahead of me were definitely something I took into effect both times I created goalies, think you kind of have to because so many of the goalie stats (wins, save percentage relative to peers) are so dependent on your peers. It helped for Wingate, who was S43 and looking at most goalies being in the S36 class so he was third in goalie TPE by his second season, and helped me here too. One thing I'll note in this case though: Don't think the S80s will be at as much of a disadvantage, since all of us already have Flex covered by TPE, and Booberry's got Emeritus as well