Statistically Speaking -- VHLM Power Rankings [1/2]

[Elhandon 66]

Statistically Speaking is back this week with our first VHLM Power Rankings.  True to our name, we're using some advanced statistics to determine each team's placement in the VHLM. 

Since this is the first installment here are some explanations for each category:

Goals +/-:  simply goals for minus goals against

Shots +/-:  shots for minus shots against (divided by 10) 

Offensive Puck Control: In minutes, the time spent with puck control in the offensive zone (divided by 100)

Defensive Zone Time: In minutes, the time spent in the defensive zone (divided by -100, multiplied by 0.696*)

Power Ranking Total (PR Points):  Sum of all four categories added together.

 

*used .696 to align the defensive minutes with the offensive minutes.  The defensive zone is total time; while offensive zone is only with puck control.  Puck control will always be less, so the .696 is my attempt to normalize the two categories.

 

after Game 85:

Las Vegas Aces  Goals +/-:  -18    Shots +/-:    -4.9      Off. Puck Control:  5.9       Def. Zone Time:   -5.7     Power Ranking Total:   -22.7

Oslo Storm           Goals +/-:  20    Shots +/-:     10.6    Off. Puck Control:  6.3       Def. Zone Time:   -6.1     Power Ranking Total:    30.8

Ottawa Lynx        Goals +/-:  -30     Shots +/-:   -18.5    Off. Puck Control:  5.1       Def. Zone Time:   -6.5     Power Ranking Total:   -49.8

Saskatoon Wild  Goals +/-:  -69     Shots +/-:   -33.9    Off. Puck Control:  5.1       Def. Zone Time:   -6.4     Power Ranking Total:   -104.2

Yukon Rush        Goals +/-:    97     Shots +/-:   46.7     Off. Puck Control:  7.4       Def. Zone Time:   -5.1     Power Ranking Total:    146.0

 

after Game 123:

Las Vegas Aces  Goals +/-: -34      Shots +/-:    -10.6     Off. Puck Control:  7.8       Def. Zone Time:  -7.8        Power Ranking Total:   -44.6

Oslo Storm           Goals +/-: 35       Shots +/-:    18.7      Off. Puck Control:  8.6       Def. Zone Time:  -8.1       Power Ranking Total:    54.2

Ottawa Lynx         Goals +/-: -31      Shots +/-:    -26.3     Off. Puck Control:  7.3       Def. Zone Time:  -9.0       Power Ranking Total:   -58.9

Saskatoon Wild   Goals +/-: -100    Shots +/-:    -48.5     Off. Puck Control:  7.2       Def. Zone Time:  -9.2       Power Ranking Total:   -150.5

Yukon Rush          Goals +/-: 130     Shots +/-:     66.7     Off. Puck Control: 10.2      Def. Zone Time:   -7.1       Power Ranking Total:   199.8

 

After all these numbers it's interesting to look at the change to each team's Power Ranking Totals.

Las Vegas Aces dropped 22 PR points.  Most of the points were lost in the goals category.  Losing 16 hurt the Aces this week.

Oslo Storm went the opposite direction gaining 23 PR points.  Gaining 15 in the goals category.

Ottawa Lynx had the least change, only dropping 9 PR points.  Eight of the 11 PR points  were due to shots.

Saskatoon Wild had the biggest drop.  And this would be no surprise looking at the standings.  They dropped 46 PR points, thanks to every category taking a hit.

Yukon Rush was on the other side of the spectrum.  They were able to grab 54 PR points in total.

 

We believe looking at these numbers can be a supplement to the standings page.  Yukon Rush deserves their place in the standings, while the same can be said for Saskatoon Wild.  Both are going opposite directions and barring a big trade, we won't see any change to either team's fortunes.

 

Oslo Storm is rolling right now and should finish second in the year-end standings.  Being the only other team actually gaining PR points means they are a cut above the bottom three teams.  

 

Here's where things get interesting.  Las Vegas Aces were behind the Ottawa Lynx, at the time the Power Rankings were analyzed, by 6 points in the standings.  However we can see the Aces actually look like the better team based on PR points.  Are they just unlucky? 

Lately they have been on a bit of slide, going from only 3 back of Ottawa to being 6 back.  Either Ottawa has gotten better, or Las Vegas has gotten worse.  Could the unluckiness be attributed to a fast start this season?  The Aces should look into makes some changes in the near future in order to keep up with Ottawa. We think it is possible.  This will be the most interesting race going forward in the VHLM.  One we shall keep tabs on here at Statistically Speaking.

 

// 702 words

[DollarAndADream 3,356]

Review:

One of those ol' statistic breakdown medias. Always enjoy reading these.

Great breakdown of the teams and definitely the stats. I'm a stat junkie.