diamond_ace articles

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The VHLM is currently led by the Brampton Blades, which is not a surprise as they’re a very strong team. On their heels are both the Bern Royals and the Bratislava Watchmen. Bern is also a very strong team and deserves to be right in the discussion with Brampton. Stats-wise, Bratislava isn’t really up there with the other two, but in the standings they easily are. It’s weird, looking at the stats, to see Bratislava where they are in comparison to the other two.

 

The standings show Bratislava as a mere two points back of Bern and eight back of Brampton. However, even in the standings, the first hint of Bratislava’s odd performance thus far rears its head. Goal difference starts to tell the tale; Bratislava holds only a 39 goal difference, which is well back of both Bern’s 76 and Brampton’s 93. This is a much wider gap than that of the standings race among the three teams. However, the goal difference is just the tip of a potentially Watchmen-sinking iceberg.

 

Looking at the points leaders, Sam Teibert leads the league for Brampton, followed by Bern’s duo of Tim TebowGow and Josh Merica. These three are on 72, 68, and 63 points, respectively. The next three point performances, Valentin Taneyev, Travis Willcox, and MC Hammer, are all also on Bern and Brampton. It isn’t until seventh place, Kyle Kingma with 49 points, where we finally find a Bratislava player (and even then, one who was only dealt to Bratislava at the beginning of this season). The rest of the top ten are all Bern and Brampton players, and even Ottawa’s Benjamin Zeptenbergs in eleventh with 39 points shows up before Bratislava’s second highest scorer, Edwin Reencarnacion with 37. When it comes to the points leaderboards, compared to their two competing counterparts, Bratislava is nowhere to be found.

 

Heading down to the goalie stats, they tell a similar story. Coca Cola is clearly the best goalie in the league, having recovered stats-wise from his start on Oslo to appear at the top of the save percentage list (by a wide margin, .926 to .899 for second, currently held by YUK G1) and a close second in goals against average (1.76, behind Bernie Gow’s 1.71, also considering Cola played on goal-sieve Oslo so his is artificially inflated). Bernie Gow is probably next best, given that he leads goals against and is third in save percentage. Bratislava, on the other hand, has David Blind in goal. While Blind finds himself third in goals against, it’s always a more team-heavy stat. His disappointing sixth place out of eight starters in save percentage is probably a more accurate depiction of his place among the goalies. He’s simply not good enough for a contender, and for that reason as well as the scorers, it remains to be seen whether Bratislava really is a contender, despite early performances.

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Last season, the VHLM had ten teams, six of which made the playoffs. This season, the VHLM has eight teams, yet still six make the playoffs. On one hand, it might seem that the bottom two playoff teams are now weaker, since they’re clearly in the bottom half of the league, as opposed to their predecessors who fell more centrally in the standings. On the other hand, if contraction to eight teams has made the average team stronger, that effect might balance out or even outweigh the initial theory. This is something unique to put to the test: are Saskatoon and Moscow (the two 3rd place teams from this season) stronger or weaker than the S42 iterations of Ottawa and Moscow who held the same spots?

 

At first glance, the S43 teams seem obviously weaker. They both have negative goal differentials, as opposed to the positive ones of their S42 counterparts. S43 Saskatoon has 0.775 points earned per game and S43 Moscow has 0.525, whereas the S42 teams have 1.19 and 1.18 points earned per game (Ottawa with the 1.19 and Moscow with the 1.18). However, we knew this would be the result based solely on standings. There are a larger proportion of teams above the S43 pair than there were above the S42 pair. Playing more games against better teams and fewer games against weaker teams will skew the stats in a negative direction, that’s just a given.

 

Last year’s Ottawa team was led by the two standout defensemen from the most recent draft class, Francis York Morgan and Pablo Escabar. They had several forwards who at the time were essentially depth, some of whom now have gone on to greater achievements but at the time, most of them were middling, unlike the two defensemen. Guys like George Patton, Benjamin Zeptenbergs, Jorma Ruutu, Thomas Duddy, and Souryuu Kaminogi are coming into their primes more this season than last. Additionally, they hadn’t much at the goalie position, relying on Roland Rengel and Holy the Goalie. Moscow was almost the opposite. Gunnar Skovsgard, the legendary VHLM goalie who nonetheless managed never to make his way up to the bigs, dragged a Moscow roster into the playoffs kicking and screaming that on its face wasn’t as good as Ottawa. Michael Clardy, a player in the same stage of development as Ottawa’s forwards above, was the strongest player on the team. Outside of Clardy, Moscow didn’t boast much else.

 

This year’s Saskatoon team is honestly not great. Marcel Faux shows the most promise in the long term and perhaps by playoff time will be the best player on the team, but right now that title belongs to Hunter Backenbauer. Backenbauer was one of the middling guys on Ottawa last year. Lenny Face, Saskatoon’s goalie, will likely be better than Rengel or Holy by the time the playoffs roll around, but the problem Saskatoon faces (and it’s the same problem any S43 team faces compared to any S42 team) is that all the depth players were replaced by SSK players (or players of each team’s respective abbreviation) who have all had their stats lowered for the post-contraction era. In comparison, Moscow has even less. Not Active, Yannik Zug, Artemis Fowll, Marcio Greusinho, Moscow’s roster reads like a who’s who of VHLM lifers. None of these guys are even still around.

 

On the whole, it seems like the rule changes and roster changes have nerfed the post-contraction era teams. Operating under the same set of rules, S43 Saskatoon might be a borderline playoff team in S42. S43 Moscow, on the other hand, not so much. They’re likely only in because Oslo is in their conference and someone has to not be last. Contraction may have made the average team stronger, but it seems to have made the bottom of the playoffs weaker.

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Baseball has a stat known as a team’s “Pythagorean record” which is what a team’s record should be based on runs scored and runs allowed. Most of the time, this record is fairly close to the team’s actual record, but on occasion a team either greatly outdoes its Pythagorean record or falls well short of it. If this stat were to be carried over to hockey, and the VHLM specifically, it could show if a team is winning or losing a lot of close games and thus skewing their actual record compared to the record they “should” have based on goals scored and allowed.

 

Based on a simple mean calculation (all eight teams’ point totals added together and divided by eight) the average team should have 55.75 points right now. Looking solely at that, no team has performed above or below that mean without also scoring on the same side of it, but that’s to be assumed given the fact that there’s a clear delineation of top and bottom teams.

 

Let’s take the original formula used to determine this in baseball and apply it directly to hockey, to see if it carries over. This formula takes the goals scored and squares it, putting that in the numerator. Then it takes each of the squares of goals scored and goals allowed, adds them together, and puts them in the denominator. The first total is then divided by the second total. (Goals scored)^2 / (Goals scored)^2 + (Goals allowed) ^2. The formula only accounts for wins and losses, so we’ll do the same in our scenario. According to the formula, the Brampton Blades should have won 88.1% of their games. Carried out over 53 games played, that gives 46.7 wins. They have 46, so the formula seems pretty good after one example. Finishing out the conference, Ottawa should have 31.2 wins, Saskatoon should have 19.5 wins, and Yukon should have 6.7 wins. So far the formula is fairly close across the board, but it shows that Ottawa has overachieved by 3.8 wins and Yukon has overachieved by 5.3 wins. Saskatoon and Brampton are each within a win of their projection.

 

Carrying over to the European conference, Bern should have 47.1 wins, Bratislava should have 41.0 wins, Moscow should have 10.6 wins, and Oslo should have 4.9 wins. In Europe, apparently the teams are performing farther from their formulaic results. Bern’s 44 wins shows an underperformance of 3.1 wins. Not only is Bern underperforming compared to their Pythagorean results, they should be on top of the league! Bratislava, also an underperformer, should have 3 more wins, whereas Moscow should have 2.4 fewer and is overachieving. Oslo is the closest team in the league to its expected result, with 5 wins compared to 4.9. On the whole, it seems like this is a fairly strong indicator of performance, and extrapolates closely to the standings.

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Has there ever been an easier first round of the VHLM Playoffs? In North America, the Ottawa Lynx finished 44 points above the Saskatoon Wild, with 103 points compared to 59. Ottawa nearly doubled up on Saskatoon and are in a position to fairly quickly dispatch them and move onto the second round. In Europe, the gap is even wider. The 109 points registered by the Bratislava Watchmen is a full 70 higher than the Moscow Red Wolves with 39. That’s more than double, and actually closer to triple the Red Wolves. If Bratislava does not sweep Moscow then this is a very unusual playoff result.

 

Perhaps one of the two teams will actually make a series out of it. Theoretically, that’s possible, strange results are occasionally given and it would certainly be a strange result for either Moscow or Saskatoon to even make a real series out of it, let alone actually win. The odds are, however, that neither will do much more than show up. Moscow almost certainly gets swept. Saskatoon might win a game but definitely not the series.

 

The question, then, is that if the third place teams are so far back, will this be indicative of a trend in the post-contraction VHLM? Will we ever see an entertaining first round again, or is this going to just be how it is every year? A case can be made for both sides.

 

It might become a recurring theme that the first round isn’t really much of a contest. After all, the third teams in each conference are both clearly in the bottom half, and bottom half teams typically aren’t playoff material. Even in a year where one side or the other gives us an entertaining series, it’ll likely be due to a year of unbalanced conferences, and the other conference will hand us the same quick result.

 

However, if that ends up being the case, surely one good series is better than no good series? Besides, we don’t know how this will play out. It’s never been done before. Perhaps GMs will focus more of their strategy on simply getting into the playoffs and giving themselves a puncher’s chance, and if so, maybe that third spot will start to become a coveted target.

 

This new system certainly lends itself to the notion of development before competition, as teams with even a half decent goalie can go fully into development mode and still be able to provide their players with a playoff experience, however short lived. Perhaps, even if the competitive first round of the playoffs has gone for good, even if the entire notion is now extinct, it’s not exclusively a bad thing. More playoff entries for weak teams can still provide some modicum of entertainment for the good and active players on those teams.

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It’s nearing the end of the season and the VHLM Finals are being played out between the Bern Royals and the Brampton Blades. This year’s playoffs have been very anticlimactic, as expected to an extent. The first round gave us two sweeps, the second round was more hotly contested but the favorites won both series in the end, and neither went to seven games, although the finals could potentially be a good close series. As such, some people might already be looking forward to some of the events in the offseason, such as awards.

 

MVP is usually a difficult award to predict. This year, it might not be so difficult. Tim TebowGow has a massive points lead on everyone else and since points are typically the category with the most pull with the voters, it’s probably a done deal. The top points guys on defense, just to take a look in case the voters consider that more impressive, are MC Hammer and Chuck Goody. Neither of them have a great deal of help from other stats, which would have been necessary to put them past TebowGow. Top 5 in points and top 5 in either hits or shot blocks might have been enough, but top 5 in points won’t beat a distant first place, even if the position is different. Goalies Coca Cola and Bernie Gow essentially take each other’s votes for this category as well, making it TebowGow’s to lose.

 

Top Goalie, as was implied during the MVP discussion, is between Coca Cola and Bernie Gow. From a purely statistical perspective, voters would likely lean Cola. Cola leads save percentage, Gow leads goals against, and each are second in the other category. Cola’s lead in save percentage is greater than Gow’s in goals against, plus save percentage is simply the more important and more goalie-specific stat of the two. However, there are often other factors considered for awards besides statistics. If it was a landslide for Cola, perhaps people would overlook this, but he’s not been practicing for quite some time. Gow has. Gow is in fact one of the best in the VHLM in practicing, which means he has a much greater potential once he reaches the bigs. Given how close his stats are, that should just put him over the edge, giving him an award to match that of his brother.

 

Top defenseman is rather interesting this year. Hammer and Goody, from the MVP discussion, have to be in the discussion here as well. They have essentially identical cases, with a significant points lead over anyone else at the position (a single point separates them, and they are 26 and 25 points clear of Golden Jedtsson in third) but neither one has another stat to bolster their case. Jedtsson would be my personal vote, though. He’s behind in points but he’s also 7th in shot blocks and 9th in hits in the league. For good measure, he’s also secured 8th in plus-minus, although plus-minus is a very skewed stat. He probably won’t win it, given the league’s propensity for points, but Jedtsson deserves this award.

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Going into the new VHLM season, it is interesting to speculate how each team will change heading into the following season. This year, more than most, the VHLM draft is going to change the landscape of the league massively. Four major star goalies will enter the VHLM, not to mention tons of solid skaters, both late additions to the S44 VHL draft who still need another year of VHLM and early declarees for S45 who’ll start off their VHLM careers now.

 

The first round of the draft will have seven selections, as Moscow 1st was owned by one of the contracted franchises. These selections are owned by four teams only. The first overall selection is owned by Yukon, and will most likely be Greg Clegane. He is the farthest developed of the four goalies and can turn any team into a playoff team, let alone whatever the Rush intend to acquire throughout the rest of the draft. The second, third and fourth selections will likely be the remaining goalies, unless a team decides to play mind games. If so, then Oslo would likely take Ariel Weinstein, Saskatoon would likely take Sandro Clegane, and Ottawa would likely take Teuvo Rinne, as that is the order of development currently among the four. Don’t be surprised to see this shaken up, however, especially by either Oslo or Saskatoon who have the next two selections.

 

If the above four are correct, then Oslo would select next with Bratislava’s 1st, and would take Aleksi Koponen to begin developing a group of forwards. For a team as poor as Oslo was last season, their defense is fairly competitive, especially factoring in recent trades. Saskatoon, who select seventh with Brampton’s pick, have a fairly spread out roster and would take the BPA, which is Biggu Kyanon (ironic since it’s Brampton’s pick originally, and Kyanon’s agent is the GM of Brampton). Closing out the first round would be Yukon with Bern’s pick, and that selection would be Phil Hamilton, just edging out Thaddeus Humbert, Giovanni Reuel, and Le’Sean Coutzen for the final selection of the round.

 

Going into the second round, the Oslo 2nd has gone the way of the Moscow 1st, so Yukon’s 2nd would be the first pick of the round. Having just gone defense with Hamilton, Yukon will turn to forward and select Le’Sean Coutzen here. Brampton owns the S44 Moscow 2nd and would have hoped Kyanon would still be there (perhaps striking some sort of deal to move up) but as he is not, they will select Thaddeus Humbert, a fairly clear BPA at this point. Saskatoon, with their own 2nd here, will take Giovanni Reuel, an active and updating first-gen with a lot of promise.

 

The second half of the second round would see Oslo (with Ottawa’s 2nd) select Marquis Hyvarinen, brother of the GM’s own player. Bratislava owns their own 2nd here and will likely not keep the pick as it doesn’t really fit with their timeline, but if they do, expect them to draft Max Molholt. Yukon is up again with Brampton’s 2nd, and they also own Bern’s 2nd to close out the round. They have a goalie, a defenseman, and a center so far in the draft. Expect them to draft a defensive partner for Hamilton in Archie Wagner, and a winger to play alongside Coutzen in Evgeny Nezhmetdinov. Both these guys are active first gens and will do well to be on an active Yukon, alongside veterans like Hamilton and Clegane.

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The VHLM always seems to have one stronger conference and one weaker conference, but the difference isn’t usually so great as to majorly affect anything. This year, it looks like the difference will actually be rather huge. According to the Team Overall ratings, the European Conference has the best team (the Oslo Storm) but also the fifth, seventh, and eighth teams. Comparatively, the North American Conference will be much more competitive with the second, third, fourth, and sixth teams. However, we all know how skewed of a stat Team Overall can be. Will this disparity hold true when looking more closely at the teams?

 

First, going to Europe, it’s pretty clear that Oslo is the best team. Sandro Clegane in goal will continue to improve at a rate that Lenny Face, Not Active, and BER G1 won’t be able to match, not to mention the fact that he’s already better than all of them. Comparing that with the North American goalies, Greg Clegane, Ariel Weinstein, and Teuvo Rinne are all also better than the three goalies above, and Corey Marino (Brampton) matches Lenny Face and beats BER G1. Goalie-wise, it’s simply not a contest, North America has it in the bag.

 

Oslo’s defense is fairly strong and deep with Chuck Goody, Ken Anderson, Supa Hot Fire and Artemis Fowl. Saskatoon, on the North American side, trumps Oslo with Biggu Kyanon, MC Hammer, Erik Hedman, Stabby McFullO’Schmidt, and Benjamin Bellamont. Yukon is perhaps a little weaker than Oslo and Saskatoon but definitely the deepest, with Phil Hamilton, Archie Wagner, Bubba Nuck, Merlin Malinoski, Maxime Wright, and Thor Weinstein. These three are the only teams really in contention defensively, although Ottawa has a contender for top defenseman in Theo Matsikas. Ottawa and Brampton, the other two North American teams, are a step behind the top three but clearly ahead of the bottom three, Bern, Bratislava, and Moscow. Combined, those three teams have a total of four defensemen and the best of the bunch are newcomers Tanner Hynes and Michael Burch. Brampton’s best defender, Franklin Romanowski, is currently better than anyone on the bottom three but isn’t actively improving and isn’t really good enough to make much of an impact on the top three. Defensively, the conference gap is even wider than the Team Overall has it, with the three lowest teams and a single top team (but not the top one) all in Europe.

 

As far as forwards are concerned, this is where the conferences can balance out a bit, due primarily to Bratislava. Two guys can make all the difference, when those two guys are Simon Valmount and Travis Willcox. Alexander Davidson is a strong contributor as well. Oslo looks strong with Le’Sean Coutzen, Giovanni Reuel, and Hunter Backenbauer, with guys like Evgeny Nezhmetdinov and Wesley Babiy looking to jump into that top tier as well. Saskatoon is led by Marcel Faux and Casper Solomon, but certainly Max Molholt will be up there by season’s end as well. Yukon has a clear top three in Aleksi Koponen, Marquis Hyvarinen, and Josh Merica, but lack depth. Brampton has the depth, but no real stars, with Maxime Perron leading the way. At forward, Ottawa is actually just as weak as Bern and Moscow, sadly. None of the three have anyone of note. Forwards balance it out a bit, with two European squads in the top four, but given the disparity at defense and goalie, the conference gap is very real this season.

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Goalies are often considered the most vital component of a team. This seems to especially hold true in the VHLM, where scoring is often higher. More goals means more people scoring the goals, lessening the impact of any particular forward on the overall game. Meanwhile, a good goalie can limit the impact of several shooters with a strong night in net, offsetting the performances of several skaters just by his own play.

 

Such a fact can be seen quite clearly in the trade between the Ottawa Lynx and Yukon Rush which sent Greg Clegane (the best goalie in the league at the moment) to Yukon in exchange for Teuvo Rinne and picks. By the end of the season, it’s probable that the gap between Clegane and Rinne will be lessened, compared to what it is now. However, in a tough conference featuring several strong contenders, some extra wins early while that gap is still wide could help Yukon secure better seeding for the playoffs, perhaps even the bye.

 

Taking a look at the results each team posted before the trade, Yukon went 2-2, with both wins coming as shutouts of the Bern Royals, who are currently the worst team in the league. Both of Yukon’s losses during this time were to the Saskatoon Wild, the team currently ahead of Yukon for the bye. Yukon is ahead of Saskatoon by two points, so if they’d won just one of those games, their lead would be doubled. Both of these games saw Yukon concede five goals, an unusually high amount. The second game Yukon lost 5-2, so Clegane wouldn’t have made a difference, but the first game was 5-4. Clegane might have done enough to get the win. Ultimately, this will be a season long battle between the two teams, but Yukon stands a better chance with Clegane as they’ve gone 11-1-1 with him. Racking up some early results might give Yukon a cushion they wouldn’t have had with the developing Rinne.

 

Ottawa has clearly gone the other way. They also went 2-2 to open up the season, achieving this result with Clegane in goal. Ottawa’s roster included Theo Matsikas and not much else. Matsikas has also gone to Yukon, and is surely contributing to their rise as well, but roster-wise there is no reason Ottawa should have matched Yukon for results in the first four games. Their schedule was of similar toughness, posting two wins against the Moscow Red Wolves, and a loss to both Saskatoon and Oslo. The only reason Ottawa even played fairly competitively in that early stretch was Clegane. Since the trade, they’ve been 2-10-1. Once Rinne develops a little more, he might become another trade piece for Ottawa if a contending team is looking for a goalie at that time. If so, look for that team to rise, as a goalie is a vital piece to a team.

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The Bratislava Watchmen are at least trying to give the Oslo Storm some competition in the European Conference. Oslo went into the season thinking they’d be the only good team in Europe and that the real battle would be in North America to see which team would face them in their inevitable finals appearance. Not necessarily so, says Bratislava. Moscow and Bern are still making no attempt to be hockey teams but Bratislava is trying to push to catch up to Oslo, and perhaps to dethrone them in the playoffs. The question, of course, is whether they’re going to be able to do it.

 

The biggest move Bratislava has made so far is the acquisition of Coca Cola. Coca Cola is one of the most skilled goalies in the league and while he hasn’t yet played in enough games to appear on the leaderboards, he would be second in save percentage and goals against, both behind Sandro Clegane of Oslo. Cola is one of those guys who failed to make a VHL run, but can still compete at the very top echelon of VHLMers even if he’s there for the rest of his career. Getting Cola, and more importantly replacing the very young and yet to develop Filip Lundqvist (who should be an excellent VHLM goalie next season) gives Bratislava a fighting chance at the most vital position in hockey.

 

The next biggest argument for Bratislava’s ability to contend is actually a guy they already had. Simon Valmount is becoming one of the best in the league. This will certainly be his last year in the VHLM, as he’s a VHL quality player right now, but fortunately for Bratislava he managed to hold off just enough and play for them one more time. Joining Valmount up front is Alexander Davidson, and not a whole lot else. Paul Ready is ok for a VHLM forward, but when the third best forward on the team is merely ok, that’s a problem. Forward depth is definitely the biggest flaw for Bratislava, and it might just be the reason they don’t push Oslo as hard as they think they will.

 

Defensively, they’re actually pretty solid, between new pickups Arcturus Mengsk, Tanner Hynes, Lucas Zhukenov, and Geoff Reid. All four will return to the VHLM draft next season as they were waiver players this season, but they’ll continue to get better throughout the season, whereas Oslo’s defensemen have all generally stalled out in terms of development other than Chuck Goody.

 

So will Bratislava make a game of it, when Oslo expected to run away with the conference? Ultimately, the answer is we’ll see. Bratislava should continue to gain ground on Oslo defensively as we approach the playoffs, as Mengsk, Hynes, Zhukenov, and Reid develop. However, Oslo has the better forwards already, and will likely only expand that lead as their six active forwards all develop. Goalie-wise, Cola is better on pure skill, but Clegane has put up better numbers. Clegane is active so that should become less of a contest as the season wears on. The Watchmen will put a scare into them, but ultimately the Storm will weather this battle and come out on top.

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The playoffs this year have five strong, good quality teams, and then there are the Moscow Red Wolves. Only in the playoffs on a technicality (terrible, but Bern is worse), Moscow is simply not a playoff team, yet they are in the playoffs nonetheless. As such, they present an interesting case study. How is the team faring? Are the players doing anything noteworthy, such that might create an interesting story in their first round series?

 

After 50 games, the Red Wolves are 11-37-2. They’ve earned a total of 24 points, and their last 10 games are 3-6-1. All 11 wins are against Ottawa and Bern, the two non-playoff teams, and they’ve gone 0 for the field against everyone else (albeit both overtime losses were against competitive teams, one against Saskatoon and the other against Oslo). They’ve conceded more goals (203) than Ottawa (169) who aren’t in the playoffs, and only two fewer than Bern (205), the other team on the outside looking in. They’ve scored a little better, but still fewer than two goals per game (89 goals in 50 games). Despite this, they’ll earn a series against likely the Bratislava Watchmen (outside chance of the Oslo Storm) wherein they will be promptly swept just like they’ve been in the regular season against both teams.

 

Despite their stats as a team, they’ve had some spectacular performances by players, given the circumstances. They hold a spot in the top ten of each of the following categories: Goals, Assists, Centers, Left Wings, Right Wings, Shots, Shot Percentage, Points per 20 Minutes, and Shot Blocks. A Moscow player (Jace Hines) leads the entire league in goal scoring streak, with four consecutive games in which he scored. Granted, one single line (Oliver Cleary, Jace Hines, and Super Cock) have contributed all of these stats but one (Santi Pineiro has blocked the third-most shots in the league with 86), but that still means that Moscow has a line of players that for one reason or another has contributed like a competitive line on a competitive team. Both Hines (with 62 points, third among right wings) and Cleary (with 58 points, fourth among centers) have outscored the highest scoring players on Oslo who are currently leading the conference (Giovanni Reuel and Le’Sean Coutzen, both with 48 points). Only two players on Bratislava, the other competitive team in Europe, have outscored Hines and Cleary (Simon Valmount with 71 and Alexander Davidson with 66). Brampton, another competitive team, has only Maxime Perron ahead of Hines and Cleary (although Perron, with 82 points, is significantly ahead and is fourth in the league in scoring). Who knows what this team might have done with one more half-decent player, particularly a goalie?

 

Moscow as a team won’t shine in the playoffs. Their stay will be short-lived. However, at least there will be some interest to their series; we will get to see the line of Cleary, Hines, and Cock perform up to the level of their opposition, even if the rest of the team does nothing.

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It’s always a big point of contention if a team is successful due to its skaters, or due to its goalie. Teams have succeeded on the back of just a good goalie, and teams have succeeded with many skaters and a weaker goalie. How much influence, exactly, does a goalie have? More accurately, how much influence does a team have on how a goalie produces? It’s feasible to think that a mediocre goalie could be elevated to greatness on the back of a good team. Not only would the goals against and wins become better if the team is better, a good defensive effort could force bad shots from weak angles and even the save percentage could become artificially inflated. How is it possible to really know?

 

This season has provided just such an answer in the form of BRP-G1. BRP-G1 is by the very definition a talentless player. He has the most basic of skill sets in all areas, no particular talent stands out for him, and he is essentially a stand in player because the team must have a goalie. Yet, somehow, BRP-G1 finds himself in the middle of most major stats. Surely this is because of Brampton’s team, not because BRP-G1 developed skill somewhere.

 

Save percentage, often accepted as the least team-dependent stat and the one that is most true to a goalie’s skill, see BRP-G1 tied for fourth with Greg Clegane, who is assumed to be the most skilled goalie in the league. Additionally, Yukon’s team is often considered to be better than that of Brampton, which is a statement that the players on each team seem to bear out as true. Why is it, then, that BRP-G1 has such a decent save percentage?

 

It looks like the only potential reasoning for this is the fact that BRP-G1 has faced far more shots. He’s allowed 2.17 goals in each game on average, more than half a goal higher than Greg Clegane’s 1.51, and behind the other three skilled goalies on competitive teams as well (Sandro Clegane, Ariel Weinstein, and Coca Cola). BRP-G1 has faced 1370 shots. While that’s significantly fewer than Lenny Face, Teuvo Rinne, and Ryan Price (of course it is, those three aren’t on teams that are able to stem the tide of shots in any capacity), it’s well ahead of the best four goalies. BRP-G1 is certainly taking advantage of a team situation that allows him to be on the last good team, which is definitely working out more advantageously for him than being a somewhat-skilled, still developing goalie on a poor team, such as Ryan Price, who will surely become miles better than BRP-G1 even though his current stats don’t bear that out.

 

While we’re prone as analysts to give credit to goalies for their teams’ successes, it’s important to note that sometimes it does in fact go the other way as well. Goalies can benefit a great deal from being behind the right set of players. Just look at BRP-G1.

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How important, really, is it to have players who score a point per game? Theoretically, a mix of capable scorers each able to get it done on different occasions should be more stable and consistent than a reliance upon a handful of scorers, yet it certainly can’t be considered a bad thing to have those few potent guys at the top of the lineup. It would be an interesting thing to see a list of how many players are at this supposed milestone level on each team, as well as how that relates to where they fall in the standings.

 

For the most part, it should be easy to determine who has a point per game, simply by looking at the standings and finding out which players have over 72 points. Exceptions must be made, however, for players who played fewer than 72 games yet still outscored their number of games played. For the purpose of this discussion, the only players who will be counted are players who made the top 10 scoring list at their position. Our non-72 exceptions are: Lucas Zhukenov (60 points in 60 games), Super Cock (69 points in 60 games), Zach Parechkin (39 points in 22 games), Travis Willcox (61 points in 53 games), Yannik Zug (50 points in 50 games), and Jefferson Jackson (57 points in 34 games). This prevents players who played well in a 3-4 game sample size but ultimately aren’t a real part of the team from skewing the list.

 

Saskatoon, at first glance, seems to be absolutely demolishing everyone else in this category. Not only do they have five players on the list (Marcel Faux, Biggu Kyanon, MC Hammer, Max Molholt, and Travis Willcox) but four of the five (all but Willcox) have over 100 points. When we check the standings, Saskatoon is dominating. 129 points are 13 more than the next closest team (Yukon) and their goals scored absolutely annihilate anyone else (294 for Saskatoon, while Brampton’s 232 is the next highest).

 

Bratislava, Moscow, and Brampton all have three point per game players, and this is where the direct comparison to the standings ends. Next, based on standings, would be Yukon or Oslo – neither of which appear here. Moscow is perhaps the biggest outlier on the list, as Bratislava and Brampton are at least competitive teams (in 4th and 5th place, with a large gap over 6th) but all of them are a big chunk behind Yukon and Oslo. Bratislava’s three (Alexander Davidson, Simon Valmount, and Lucas Zhukenov) are the most standard set of this group. Brampton’s are all non-72 exceptions (Zach Parechkin, Yannik Zug, and Jefferson Jackson) of which Zug is only exactly a point per game and Parechkin and Jackson have each played fewer than 35 games on the season. Moscow includes Jace Hines, Oliver Cleary, and Super Cock, each of which only made the point per game cutoff without a great deal of room to spare, yet the line is responsible for nearly every goal Moscow has on the season.

 

Yukon and Oslo, the second and third teams in the regular season, each outplayed Bratislava, Moscow, and Brampton despite one fewer point per game scorer.  Aleksi Koponen cleared the margin by quite a distance for Yukon (likely balancing out the just-misses by Josh Merica, Bubba Nuck, and Marquis Hyvarinen), and Phil Hamilton was Yukon’s other qualifier. Maxime Perron, one of Oslo’s two qualifiers, spent half the season on Brampton, so their only true qualifier was Giovanni Reuel, who got there by a single point. Le’Sean Coutzen, Wesley Babiy, Evgeny Nezhmetdinov, and Franklin Romanowski (another midseason addition) were close and nonetheless provided plenty of secondary scoring. Point per game players provide boosts to a team to an extent, but they are clearly not the be all end all of success.

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The VHLM Executive of the Year trophy is often awarded to the GM of the team who won the cup. This isn’t necessarily a bad way to go; clearly the GM did at least a reasonable job if the team won the cup, but sometimes someone else did more, or sometimes the GM kind of fell into a cup winner, or sometimes the moves that led to the cup were from a different season. Any number of things could lead to this being the wrong choice, even if it’s never an entirely poor one.

 

This season, there are four candidates I’d consider for the Executive of the Year trophy, even if only three made the ballot (I’m not revealing which candidate was left off, but the ballots will likely come out with the vote results nonetheless). The three teams who did poorly ought to automatically be eliminated, even if Vince Wong in Bern did a lot of work toward building up the upcoming season (he’ll likely be on the short list for the S45 title, but that doesn’t put him on here). Similarly, Smirnov Light and Zack Gagnon won’t make the list for this year. Of the competitive teams, it’s fairly obvious that Rami Ramistein left quite a bit to be desired at the head of Yukon, despite the record. That leaves Terence Fong, Brody Hodgson, myself (Jason Glasser), and early-season hiree Blake Campbell.

 

One major place to look is at the draft. Of the four realistic candidates, Hodgson and Glasser did a much better job of setting themselves up for this season than did either Campbell (no picks) or Fong (selected with a focus on two seasons, a strategy which rather backfired in regards to the Matt Johnson pick). Hodgson hit strongly early on with Biggu Kyanon, Ariel Weinstein, and Max Molholt, while Glasser was a more frequent success throughout the draft, especially the steal of the draft with Wesley Babiy at 17th overall, but also whiffed once with Thaddeus Humbert at 11th. Nonetheless, Le’Sean Coutzen, Sandro Clegane, Giovanni Reuel, and Evgeny Nezhmetdinov added to the strong showing for Oslo.

 

Campbell has a unique case, however. Despite not having picks, and despite a post-draft buzz of competition in North America and an easy European walk for Oslo, Campbell managed to build a nobody into a contender with one swift strike: Coca Cola. Every team is allotted one inactive free agent. Active free agents, on the other hand, are free to go wherever they choose. Campbell successfully swayed Cola to his team, putting his Bratislava team on par with Oslo, Saskatoon, and Yukon in net. With Simon Valmount the lone successful holdover from last season (some might include Alexander Davidson but he’s fallen quite off) Bratislava had a lot of work to do, and Cola was the first piece to the puzzle. Arcturus Mengsk was an important second piece, as the over 25 waiver system doesn’t often come into play in the early season, yet Mengsk appeared and while Moscow was the team to claim, Mengsk was soon shipped to Bratislava (in a deal where Bratislava in hindsight was a clear winner). Tanner Hynes was another decent piece that went to Bratislava in the deal, in exchange for essentially just a second rounder (Lenny Face went to Moscow but amounted to nothing). Lucas Zhukenov, another big waiver claim (this time by Brampton) was also traded to Bratislava. At the time, as well as now, the value on this trade looks bad (and is bad) but Bratislava wanted to get another solid player and did so in Zhukenov.

 

While ultimately, Bratislava was downed by Oslo in the conference finals as everyone expected, the fact that Campbell managed to make a series of it means this season’s Executive of the Year award deserves to go to Campbell. It probably won’t (Hodgson won the cup and isn’t a poor choice) but it should.

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Very rarely does the VHLM (or the VHL, for that matter) see a three team trade. It doesn’t tend to make sense from a value standpoint – there are sellers and there are buyers, so a trade often comprises one from each side and doesn’t leave a lot of room for another of either to join in. Such a scenario happened just a few weeks ago in the VHLM, and it made sense for all parties, although two of the three teams could be considered “buyers” in the traditional sense.

 

The trade involved Moscow, Oslo, and Yukon. Naturally, Yukon was the seller, sending two big defensemen (Marquis Hyvarinen and Bubba Nuck) away from the cold northwest – and from North America entirely – from their otherwise depleted roster. The trade was actually kicked off by the fact that Oslo, a team with the pieces to compete but perhaps not the depth, had two star goaltenders in Sandro Clegane and Coca Cola. These two are easily the best two in the league at this time, and having one made Oslo a contender, but having both forced one to the bench. This was unfair to either of the two of them, so Oslo felt it best to parlay the extra goalie into an extra few players. This wasn’t going to work, in a traditional trade, since a team willing to give Oslo pieces wouldn’t likely also want a top two goalie. A third team was needed.

 

Enter Moscow, who’d been inquiring about a goalie, specifically Clegane. Moscow wanted a goalie, but obviously wouldn’t want to ship away pieces from a contending team, so they and Oslo met an impasse. Ideas were tossed back and forth between the teams as to a few teams who might be interested, but then Yukon posted a trade block consisting of Hyvarinen and Nuck, given their relative lack of a roster elsewhere and the need to rebuild. Oslo contacted Yukon and invited Moscow in on the talks, and a few details later, the whopper of a deal was built and each team got their piece.

 

So in a deal like this, who wins? Let’s first take a look at Yukon’s portion. They lost Hyvarinen and Nuck, which was their intention, and out of it came two S47 1sts. Specifically, they gained the 1sts of Moscow and Oslo, who as contenders this year should each have rather sparse rosters in S46. These are both going to be fairly high 1sts, a lottery pick and probably 3rd or 4th overall (depending in large part on active free agent Coca Cola’s decision in S46). Yukon probably broke about even on the deal.

 

Moscow look like probable winners on pure value, gaining one of the best goalies in the league and only losing a 1st, albeit a top 1st. However, where Moscow will hurt is the fact that Oslo, one of their closest competitors, got better and closed some ground on them, depth-wise, by adding Hyvarinen and Nuck to a defense that had upcoming star Olivia Diamond and VHLM mainstay Supa Hot Fire. If Moscow won on value, that means Oslo came out at a slight loss, but we suspect they’re happy to have gained the two skaters for a goalie they didn’t need and a pick. This trade actually helped every team involved, which is rare.