Halifax v. Ottawa: Matchups to Watch

[CowboyinAmerica 2,840]

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The Matchups to Watch

 

 

It was the matchup that fans expected when the playoff bracket was finalized, and now we’re here: two versus three, Halifax versus Ottawa, with a chance to go to the VHLM finals on the line. By all accounts, it should represent a particularly close matchup – the 21st did pass the Lynx on just the very last day of the season, after all. However, the trend line seems to be of two teams going in the opposite direction, with Halifax rising from fourth to second and Ottawa falling from first to third within the final ten games of the season.

 

Will those trends continue? We decided to break down the two teams side-by-side to see which could have an edge come this tough series.

 

Forwards

Halifax Player to Watch: AJ Axelsen

Ottawa Player to Watch: Aston Martin

 

At first glance, these would seem to be two similar teams. Both know how to get the puck in the net with a lead scorer in Gaudette and Martin, and both feature two top offensive lines with all players at 180 TPE or above. It’s no surprise that both are among the highest scoring teams in the league.

 

However, the systems for both are slightly different. For Ottawa, whose only forward with a higher passing ability than scoring ability is third line center Pascal Batz, the name of the game is putting the puck on net early and often. You won’t see the Lynx play around with the puck in front of the net too often, instead relying on their snipers’ ability to do the work themselves. It’s no surprise then that despite having two of the top eight goal scorers in the league, Batz was the only Ottawa forward to top 53 assists. It means that those snipers, led by Martin, will need to be hitting for the Lynx to make an impact.

 

Halifax, meanwhile, does have one of those facilitators. It’s perhaps odd to see Axelsen leading all point scorers through the first four games of the playoffs without a single goal, but it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who’s seen his play all season or his 60/80 scoring/passing attribute split. He’s the fulcrum through which Gaudette and Halifax’s other scorers are able to find space, and his ability to open up the ice will be more important than ever this series.

 

Verdict: Draw

 

Defense

Halifax Player to Watch: Lance Flowers

Ottawa Player to Watch: Brendan James Lawn

 

It’s a common maxim that a team is only as strong as its weakest link. For both squads’ first lines, that is definitely found in the defense, and more specifically in the team’s second defenders. Guy LeGrande and Ambrose Stark are great first defenders for Halifax and Ottawa, respectively, but especially facing an onslaught of offensive talent, it will be incumbent on the top line’s second defenders to hold their own in this series.

 

For Halifax’s Lance Flowers, who recently moved up to the first line in replacing Hugh Chan, that means being better than a student of everything and a master of none. The new player has taken a balanced approach to becoming better over the past third of the regular season, focusing on unflashy stats like defense and puck handling as compared to becoming a big hitter or scorer. The result is a mere two goals and 20 points in 29 games after joining the team, but a surprising +14 in the regular season and +4 thus far in the playoffs. He’s not a star but can plug a hole, which is what Halifax needs.

 

Lawn, meanwhile, is a similar type of player, but perhaps even more well rounded—which in this case could be interpreted as mediocre in many respects. Lawn has focused in practice on attributes like discipline and fighting that don’t mesh well with others on the Ottawa squad, lowering his overall effectiveness in passing and skating below what it could be. He’s serviceable, but especially for the 11th pick in the VHLM Draft, Ottawa likely expected more out of him. That, plus Boheem Bismarck’s stronger play than David Lindberg, could be the difference.

 

Verdict: Halifax

 

Goalie

 

You know who the players to watch here are: It’s the starting goaltenders Michael Johnson and Pekka Pouta. While Halifax’s Thorvald Gunnarsson may get a bit of run, particularly if Johnson starts out poorly, I’m going to assume that Johnson will be Halifax’s primary goaltender throughout the playoffs.

 

It will be an interesting question, though, exactly what Johnson the Halifax fans will see in the playoffs. Johnson was one of the weakest goalies in the VHLM season, posting a .874 save percentage in his 42 games played (splitting time with Gunnarsson). That figure didn’t even make the VHLM’s top ten, and he ranked just ninth in GAA (3.02) and eighth in shutouts (3). It’s worth mentioning, though, that many top VHLM goaltenders were at or near 200 TPE from the beginning of the season; Johnson just hit that mark within the past week. There’s reason to believe that his regular season performance may not reflect his current skills, but there’s no way to know that for certain without playing the games.

 

With Pouta, however, we know what he is at this point; it’s his third straight season as a VHLM starter, after all, and second in net for the Lynx. This season, he saw his save percentage rise to .895 (fifth among qualified VHLM goalies) and his GAA lower to 2.34 (third), easily the best marks of his career. He beat up on lesser competition to a certain extent, with 8 total shutouts, but the fact that he has more or less maintained both numbers through the first round of the playoffs indicates his regular season performance may not have been a one hit wonder. The attributes say Pouta and Johnson are at the same level, but Pouta’s got the consistency to back it up.

 

Verdict: Ottawa

 

Final Prediction

 

It’s going to be a close game no matter what, as evidenced by just how closely matched these two teams are. I fully expect this series to go six or seven, and as STHS has proved a number of times, anything can happen from there. But because of their defensive advantage and the distinct roles of their offensive system, as well as the fact they won many matchups between these two teams down the stretch, I’m giving the edge to Halifax to reach another finals. Halifax 21st in 7.

[CowboyinAmerica 2,840]

This is for the weeks ending 6/30 and 7/7, since I already claimed Welfare this week.

 

This also counts for the Theme Week, 8 points including this VHL.com article.