Is Eagles worth his contract?

[Greg_Di 1,030]

 

 

Earlier this week, the Riga Reign caused a  ruckus by trading for Vancouver’’s goalie Greg Eagles and his remaining contract which has this season + 2 left to run. With Eagles entering his 5^th season, this means that Riga only has him under contract for 3 seasons. He will be eligible for one more season after that but as of right now he would be a pending free agent.

 

With Eagles entering regression next season, is his salary which is at approx 5.5 / season worth it?

 

Let’s start with some honesty. Most teams are bad at evaluating goalies and what they are worth to the team. Especially with the randomness on how well a goalie will play in the VHL and anyone who says they are good at evaluating goalies and how they will perform is definitely lying.

 

The current state of judging goalie performance is at looking at their stats year over year but this does not tell us how well they will do in the future. At best we can guess but it is rare these days in the VHL to see the top goalie from one season repeat the next season. Is this the best way for teams to judge how well a goalie will play? No but right now there is really no other alternative. Some teams are starting to use Corsi stats but this is still in its infancy and doesn’t really help dictate how well a goalie will play in the future either.

 

If we’re going to make a good faith effort to measure goalie performance, we have to at least use the best data available. That means throwing wins and goals against average in the garbage. Those are team statistics. Wins are dependent on how many goals the skaters score. Goals against average is dependent on how many shots the skaters allow.

 

So how do we judge if Eagles is good enough to justify the salary? Well I guess we just have to watch him game by game and see if he is working on his weaknesses or not. Is he still letting in soft goals or has this weakness been improved? How about his hand speed? Or rebound control?

 

So how good is Eagles?

 

To answer this question…My answer would have to be I don’t know. I just don’t. I have 4 ½ years of VHL stats for the Riga goalie. We know he’s gotten better every year, which is encouraging. But the perception of him as one of the best goaltenders in the league based on his Clegane and Shaw wins might not be justified. Yes he was the best last season but that was the only season. Before that he wasn’t even in any of the award conversations. Was this just a one off season? Will he be able to repeat?

 

Looking at his stats, they each improved every season and seem to be getting better but is this due to Eagles getting better or having a solid D core in front of him? Has he been improving on his weaknesses?

 

In all honesty we don’t know this either. We have watched him game in and game out for the past 4 seasons and it doesn’t seem like he has changed much but he keeps getting better stats.

 

The 5.5 million contract justified?

 

When Vancouver offered Eagles the contract he was an up and coming superstar and Vancouver expected him to remain near the top of the heap of goalies for the next few seasons. Eagles responded to the contract by having his best season yet and winning multiple awards but now with regression approaching next season, will he be able to keep up as one of the better goalies in the league? If he does then this contract makes plenty of sense. This also helped the Wolves in justifying moving him while his value was at the highest. Riga needed a goalie and they were offered the top goalie form last season…I think any team that were in need would jump on that opportunity.

 

So far that decision has paid off for Riga as Eagles has helped them return to a playoff spot, but in order for this trade to be a success Riga has to stay in this spot and make the playoffs.

But ff you think that Eagles has already peaked and will never challenge for the top goalie awards again then this kind of contract is a nightmare. With most teams hitting the cap in the VHL, a 5.5 million dollar contract is a big hit to the cap if the player can’t perform.

 

Goalies are the most important players on the ice. No skater can impact the outcome of the game in the way a goalie can. So of course the most important position is also the most difficult to evaluate. Do you spend these big bucks on a solid goalie or do you try to build a better offense/defense but go with a more rookie goalie? These are the decisions team’s have to make in the salary cap era.

 

I know an elite goalie is the most valuable thing a team can have. I have no idea how to determine if a goalie is elite. I’m confident Eagles has been a top goalie last season and is showing signs of that this season…but what’s going to happen in the twilight years of his career?

 

In order to justify his contract, Eagles has to be in top 3 goalie discussion every season. And that’s the issue. I’m not sure that with the data available I could ever be confident in saying that will happen. The first few seasons he was not in the conversation, last season he was, this season his is on the outside looking in but getting better every game.

 

This deal is riddled with risk. Goalies are a crap shoot. If Eagles is one of the best goalies in the league over his remaining contract then this deal will be a steal. If he settles into somewhere into the middle of the pack role , the Reign will be trying to figure out how to dump his contract in the next few seasons.

 

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Edited April 10, 2020 by Greg_Di

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Claiming for week 2