The Danger of trading first-round picks

[Victor 10,942]

So this season is pretty crazy – 6 points separating the top 7 teams in the league and Seattle, currently top of the league, just 10 points clear of Toronto currently outside the playoffs and eighth in the league. Europe has a bit more breathing room – Prague, Riga, and Moscow are neck and neck but seem relatively safe in the playoffs. All of the above is on the assumption NY and Malmo don't wake up in the second half of the season.

 

Now last season was also pretty close, with 10 teams with playoff aspirations but it was a bit more broken down – Moscow and Vancouver were fighting for the Victory Cup, while Calgary was also pretty safe for most of the season. Plus, most teams, although not Toronto and Malmo who did end up missing the playoffs, had their own first-round picks.

 

This season, there are so many permutations. Davos, having pulled off the highly questionable but turns out genius swap of S71 TOR 1^st for S72 NYA 1^st, could have 3 of the 4 lottery picks in S72. This is provided neither NY or Toronto turn things around (which won't even take that much for Toronto, for some reason), and also that Davos doesn't accidentally stumble into the playoffs themselves.

 

What about the 4^th lottery pick? Well that could be anyone's guess. Helsinki will get their guy Valtteri somethingnainen regardless of where they pick, which is why they gave Calgary a maybe lottery pick on the cheap. Or maybe they stay above Malmo in which case Seattle somehow ends up with a lottery pick, AGAIN. Or maybe Prague falls off in which case Calgary gets the lottery pick anyway. If it's Riga, then Vancouver gets the top four selection all of a sudden. Moscow has their first round pick still so time to tank I think. It's the safest bet.