Winners and Losers of the S73 Dispersal Draft

[Plate 386]

Before you are a media spot and a huge excel spreadsheet. For all intents and purposes, I had a quick formula to calculate a score based on 10 different stats from a player. When that score was calculated I added their current TPE onto it as well.

Then I listed off each player score from largest to smallest and that is their new draft position. If you had the highest score of them all you were 1st overall. If you had the second highest score you were 2nd overall. If you had the third highest score you were 3rd overall, and so on and so forth.

 

I subtracted each player’s new draft position from their old one. When you add up all the differences in draft position for each team’s pick; you come up with an arbitrary value to determine how well a team did in the draft. TPE values have changed since I wrote this spreadsheet, so each player is, give or take, within 12 score of each other.

 

A team’s biggest steal is their draftee who had the highest positive jump in the draft. Whereas the team’s biggest bust is their draftee who had the highest negative fall in the draft. If a player had nobody fall in the draft, nobody busted and therefore it says “No Busts” or “No Steals”.

 

Goalies were not included in this list because they are so weird to try and track with other

players. For picks that teams literally passed on, I just assumed that they would pass again in that same spot.

 

PHILADELPHIA 
Picks: 2
Score: 54
Biggest Steal: C. Rockwall (+28)
Biggest Bust: (No Busts)

 

HOUSTON 
Picks: 6
Score: 45
Biggest Steal: J. The 3rd (+16)
Biggest Bust: A. Dear (-11)

 

MISSISSAUGA 
Picks: 4
Score: 32
Biggest Steal:  T. Horton (+17)
Biggest Bust: (No Busts)

 

LAS VEGAS 
Picks: 10
Score: 31
Biggest Steal: R. Entertainment (+25)
Biggest Bust: T. Jabroni (-19)

 

YUKON 
Picks: 5
Score: 25
Biggest Steal: Mattymell (+21)
Biggest Bust: W. Jetski (-6)

 

SASKATOON 
Picks: 4
Score: 0
Biggest Steal: B. Landry (+15)
Biggest Bust: A. Askarov (-11)

 

MINNESOTA 
Picks: 2
Score: 1
Biggest Steal: T. Kamashev (10)
Biggest Bust: Y. Cloudersa (-9)

 

HALIFAX 
Picks: 3
Score: -12
Biggest Steal: H. Gunnarsson (12)
Biggest Bust: Empty (-15)

 

MIAMI 
Picks: 11
Score: -30
Biggest Steal: P. Laine (+40)
Biggest Bust: K. King (-16)

 

SAN DIEGO 
Picks: 9
Score: -61
Biggest Steal: L. Leveque (+7)
Biggest Bust: B. Von Luxembourg (-24)

 

OTTAWA 
Picks: 16
Score: -85
Biggest Steal: Z. Kisslinger (+20)
Biggest Bust: J. Jogr (-33)

 

THESIS

Why do players get picked earlier? Well, you’ll see there are two main reasons for players getting picked a lot higher than they should. The first is that they’re a returning player. GMs are more likely to pick a welfare agent than they will a first-gen that inconsistently earns, even if the average of that first-gens earnings are higher than welfare. And the second is team loyalty. When a new player signs with a team in the VHLM they tend to want to go back to their signing team in the draft. Or at least, that expectation will occur if it’s realistic. Sometimes a “worse” skater is selected for the locker room.

 

Why do players fall in the draft? For one, first-gens are higher risk than recreates. You don’t know what you’re getting really. Someone might be too active and burn out quickly. Hyperactivity is sometimes not a good thing. GMs pay attention to what is said everywhere. In media spots, locker rooms they have access to, insider information, they will get it at one point. Maybe not immediately, but things generally come around. Information might deter a GM from selecting your player. That’s okay, because they do it so that you are a good fit for the team, not because you’re a bad person.