Miracle on Ice ft. Chicago Phoenix

[badcolethetitan 921]

Miracle on Ice ft. Chicago Phoenix

 

 

Breaking down TPA per team, an average

 

Before we get into the absolutely crazy season that the Chicago Phoenix are having, lets first break down the TPA per team in NA, on average to see where, in theory, the team "should" finish. Again, there are a lot of other things to take into consideration besides just "TPA", like builds, lines, strategies, etc, but this is the simplest and easiest way to compare teams without me having to do too much work, yay! Below will be the teams listed in order (NA only, as we aren't focusing much on EU here), based on their average TPA for their rosters as of 12/3/2023. I will round the TPA to a whole number and also round down, as you can't have .8 of a TP.

 

NA Conference

 

Los Angeles Stars (6-3-2): 841 TPA

 Toronto Legion (6-4-2): 827 TPA

 D.C. Dragons (6-4-1): 787 TPA

 Calgary Wranglers (6-4-2): 786 TPA

 Seattle Bears (6-4-1): 635 TPA

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 Vancouver Wolves (6-2-1): 589 TPA

 New York Americans (7-3-1): 531 TPA

 Chicago Phoenix (6-4-1): 528 TPA

 

Already looking at these statistics makes it mind boggling to currently think that the Chicago Phoenix are in third place in NA and are already clinched a playoff spot. On paper, in NA, they have the worst roster, yet somehow, they find a way to win and be towards the top of the conference. Not only are they over 200 TPA down on average to the top teams, they also have a bot goalie who is currently 2-5 on the season. Lets now take a look at the players and check at this moment, how much of a point increase they had from last season to this season alone (72 games haven't been played yet, so keep that in mind). The numbers in parenthesis are the point differential.

 

Player point totals, last season to this season

 

Scotty Sundin - 90P -> 101P (+11)

Legacy Gaming - 37P -> 78P (+41)

Michael Shotter - 15P -> 51P (+36)

Reinhard Von Kongming - 17P -> 44P (+27)

Sigma Freud - 20P -> 40P (+20)

Dank Turtle - 10P -> 38P (+28)

Brodie Landry III - 10P -> 34P (+24)

Damian Steele - 36P -> 31P (-5)

PJ Daniels - 41P -> 31P (-10)

Tullemore Dew - 17P -> 23P (+6)

At first glance, almost every single player had an increase in points, with the players that did increase, only Tullemore Dew didn't increase by double digits. This is already crazy numbers, as most of these players were depth pieces on their previous team, thrown away due to the fact they were either inactive, or didn't have the cap space to keep them. Now these misfits are having career years on a team that has already defied all odds. Only PJ Daniels and Damian Steele have regressed, however, both of these players are veterans, with PJ Daniels being a S83 and Damian Steele being a S84, so it makes sense their point totals decreased. The last thing we will look at is special teams, some team statistics, and specifically, how the hell is this team finding a way to win games?

 

Special Teams, team statistics, and how do they win?

 

 Chicago Phoenix (32-18-14)

 

Goals for per game on average: 2.83 (8th)

Goals against per game on average: 3.02 (11th)

Powerplay: 22.60% (1st)

Penalty Kill: 82.85% (8th)

Shots for average: 34.86 (10th)

Shots against average: 38.36 (12th)

 

Statistically, all these numbers put them around the middle of the pack, suggesting they should be basically anywhere from 8th-12th in the standings. Currently, Chicago is 7th in the overall standings, with being 3rd in the North American Conference, something that doesn't necessarily add up when you look at these. However, there is one big factor, and that is the powerplay for the Phoenix. The powerplay is their one key to success, mainly where they win most of their games. A whopping 35% of the team's overall goals are scored on the powerplay, which is crazy as most teams don't have to rely on their powerplay as much to net them wins. On top of that, this team has been to extra time in their games 29 out of the 64 games they have played, as they are very good at keeping games close and not out of control. There have been a couple games here and there where they get blown out, hence why their goal differential is in the negative, but for the majority of the games, they're able to keep games close. 

 

Conclusion

 

At the end of the day, there are many different factors due to the fact that Chicago is a playoff team. Almost every single of their players has improved in points from last season, with most having career years this current season. The powerplay is red hot, being 1st in the entire league, while also scoring 35% of their team's goals. Ryan Artyomov is quietly having an amazing rookie season, putting up a .926 sv% and a 2.76 GAA, being a key part of Chicago's success, despite not being mentioned. On top of that, it's a simulation, not actually real. Crazy things have happened before and can happen time and time again. Should Chicago really be a playoff team? In hindsight, no. They shouldn't be. On paper, they're the worst in NA, they have a negative goal differential, and they get outshot on average every single game. However, the little team of misfits, the inactive players, the clickers, the "role" players have found a way to prove every single doubter wrong, that they actually matter. A lot of things had to go Chicago's way for this to happen, including being in a weaker conference in my opinion. Also, you cannot deny there is luck involved. I think people might find it hard to grasp "luck" as a concept, but like I said, it's a simulation. You could have a 90% chance to win, but 10% of that time, you will lose. Who knows what the chances of Chicago winning games like this were, they could be having insane luck, rolling the right outcome every single time. I'm just happy to see the team coming to life and players playing out of their minds, even if it screws my rebuild!

 

Sidenote

 

I also want to give a quick shoutout to @fromtheinside who is having a career year with Chicago, and now holds the all-time goal and point record for the organization. Without Scotty, this isn't possible, and he's been amazing as a player and as a person. We've had some great conversations and it's going to be painful to have you go. Thank you for your time in Chicago and we'll try our best to make you proud in the playoffs, one last run!

 

1000+ words

Edited December 3, 2023 by badcolethetitan

[JCarson 730]

Article Review:  I am always a sucker for articles that provide a level of analysis, some actual numbers to look at.  For this reason I am drawn to this article.  In addition to some actual work being done to do the evaluation it is also organized in an effective manner, provides easy to follow arguments that brings you to the conclusion of the writer.  The personal touch at the end to call out notable impacts of players this year and over their career provides a nice added touch.  Good luck in the playoffs however as you noted this was an analysis of Chicago against the NA conference.  I just don't think that the NA conference stands a chance against whatever EU team makes the finals.  There is a significant strength difference this year.

 

I give this article a 10/10.  Well done.