VSN Presents: The Analytic's Edge

[FlyingWV 36]

The Analytics Edge: How Player Ratings Shape Plus/Minus in  the VHLM

 

                                                                                                                 @slothfacekilla

 

Today’s article is my inaugural journey in writing for VSN, and this will kick off a long term series of statistical and ratings analysis that I will be doing every season, to help us better understand possibly the importance of ratings to stat performance. I hope this will help user’s better determine an upgrade path, to seek the specific performance they are looking for. In today’s article, we will be starting with Winger’s. I will be analyzing the top 10 Left Wingers and the top 10 Right Wingers of the VHLM, sorted by +/-. I apologize in advance if your player was not included, but I will be limiting these articles to 20 player’s at a time, to help limit article length to make it more readable. Without further ado, let’s dig right in. I will be starting with the top 10 Left Winger’s first. To be transparent, at least with the initial run of this article, I will primarily be focusing on offensive production of the wingers.

 

1^st, ALTO RED, @alto_red , Philadelphia Reapers, they’ve scored 4 Goals, contributed 5 Assists, for a total of 9 Points. They are contributing 1.5 points per game with a Plus / Minus of 9. RED is contributing 3 hits per game, for a total of 18 hits. They are attempting 5.17 shots per game, with a total of 31 shots attempted, scoring 12.90% of those chances. They’ve played 171 minutes in 6 games playing for an average of 28.56 minutes of time on ice per game. They’ve scored 1.05 points per 20 minutes. They were the 1^st star 1 time, the 2^nd star 1 time and the 3^rd star 1 time. The ratings that derive these stats are 70 DK, 0 SH, 0 PA, 0 BC, 0 GR, 0 FO, 28 PC, 49 DC, 70 OV, 14 SP, 0 SS, 0 WS, 0 LD, 0 FG, 0 PO and have 40 EXP. There were 231 TPE spent on this build. This player prioritized DK and OV, which seems to have paid off in the form of a top offensive performance through the first 6 games.

 

2^nd, Hunter s, @Hunter S, Houston Bulls, they’ve scored 3 Goals, contributed 5 Assists, for a total of 8 points. . They are contributing 1.33 points per game with a Plus / Minus of 6. Hunter s is contributing 2 hits per game, for a total of 12 hits. They are attempting 5.33 shots per game, with a total of 32 shots attempted, scoring 9.38% of those chances. They’ve played 172 minutes in 6 games playing for an average of 28.72 minutes of time on ice per game. They’ve scored .93 points per 20 minutes. They were the 1^st star 1 time, the 2^nd star 1 time and the 3^rd star 1 time. The ratings that derive these stats are 13 DK, 67 SH, 5 PA, 0 BC, 0 GR, 0 FO, 67 PC, 69 DC, 70 OV, 32 SP, 32 SS, 0 WS, 0 LD, 0 FG, 0 PO and have 46 EXP. There were 355 TPE spent on this build. This player prioritized SH, PC, DC and OV. They have more TPE assigned than the 1^st place player, so they have more ratings to work with, they are a little more balanced ratings wise, however they are 3 points lower on the PLUS / MINUS through the first 6 games.

 

3^rd, Lorenzo Mancini,  @GioSivo, Saskatoon Wild, they’ve scored 3 Goals, contributed 5 Assists, for a total of 8 points. . They are contributing 1.33 points per game with a Plus / Minus of 5. Mancini is contributing 2 hits per game, for a total of 12 hits. They are attempting 5.17 shots per game, with a total of 31 shots attempted, scoring 9.68% of those chances. They’ve played 173 minutes in 6 games playing for an average of 28.96 minutes of time on ice per game. They’ve scored .92 points per 20 minutes. They were the 1^st star 1 time, the 2^nd star 1 time and the 3^rd star 0 times. The ratings that derive these stats are 17 DK, 6 SH, 0 PA, 0 BC, 0 GR, 0 FO, 14 PC, 52 DC, 70 OV, 7 SP,20 SS, 17 WS, 0 LD, 0 FG, 0 PO and have 43 EXP. There were 203 TPE spent on this build. This player prioritized DC and OV. They continue the trend of focusing on both DC and OV like the first two entrants, it seems to be a pattern that works.

 

4^th, Tommy James Longpre, @TJ Longpre, Philadelphia Reapers, they’ve scored 2 Goals, contributed 3 Assists, for a total of 5 points. . They are contributing .83 points per game with a Plus / Minus of 3. Longpre is contributing 2.33 hits per game, for a total of 14 hits. They are attempting 3.5 shots per game, with a total of 21 shots attempted, scoring 9.52% of those chances. They’ve played 152 minutes in 6 games playing for an average of 25.38 minutes of time on ice per game. They’ve scored .66 points per 20 minutes. They were the 1^st star 0 times, the 2^nd star 0 times and the 3^rd star 0 times. The ratings that derive these stats are 21 DK, 20 SH, 16 PA, 10 BC, 7 GR, 6 FO, 12 PC, 19 DC, 26 OV, 25 SP, 20 SS, 20 WS, 9 LD, 1 FG, 19 PO and have 53 EXP. There were 231 TPE spent on this build. This player is balanced across the board, not having a heavy investment in any one rating. While they are Plus / Minus of 3 which is pretty good production, so far the first three entrants show that this balanced approach may not be the best approach to produce top tier offensive production.

 

5^th, Jakub Kovar, @MichkovSzn, Philadelphia Reapers,  they’ve scored 3 Goals, contributed 5 Assists, for a total of 8 points. . They are contributing 1.33 points per game with a Plus / Minus of 2. Kovar is contributing 2.33 hits per game, for a total of 14 hits. They are attempting 5.17 shots per game, with a total of 31 shots attempted, scoring 9.68% of those chances. They’ve played 165 minutes in 6 games playing for an average of 27.58 minutes of time on ice per game. They’ve scored .97 points per 20 minutes. They were the 1^st star 0 times, the 2^nd star 0 times and the 3^rd star 0 times. The ratings that derive these stats are 40 DK, 4 SH, 4 PA, 0 BC, 0 GR, 0 FO, 16 PC, 70 DC, 70 OV, 5 SP, 9 SS, 9 WS, 9 LD, 0 FG, 0 PO and have 43 EXP. There were 229 TPE spent on this build. This player revisited the heavy focus of DC and OV with a good investment of DK as well. While they are Plus / Minus of 2, they’re offensive production is pretty good producing 1.33 points per game.

 

6^th, Zak Trokker, @Peace, San Diego Marlins,  they’ve scored 1 Goal, contributed 6 Assists, for a total of 7 points. . They are contributing 1.17 points per game with a Plus / Minus of 2. Trokker is contributing 2.33 hits per game, for a total of 14 hits. They are attempting 5.33 shots per game, with a total of 32 shots attempted, scoring 3.13% of those chances. They’ve played 163 minutes in 6 games playing for an average of 27.24 minutes of time on ice per game. They’ve scored .86 points per 20 minutes. They were the 1^st star 0 times, the 2^nd star 0 times and the 3^rd star 1 time. The ratings that derive these stats are 0 DK, 22 SH, 0 PA, 0 BC, 0 GR, 0 FO, 40 PC, 20 DC, 70 OV, 70 SP, 70 SS, 20 WS, 0 LD, 0 FG, 0 PO and have 43 EXP. There were 312 TPE spent on this build. This player has heavily invested in OV, SP, and SS.  They are providing valuable offensive production, however what stands out to me is that their shot % is a good 6% lower than the previous player’s analyzed so far, does this indicate that maybe DV is valuable for shooting % as well?

 

7^th, Fortnite Moneygang, @Max77,  Ottawa Lynx, they’ve scored 4 Goals, contributed 2 Assists, for a total of 6 points. . They are contributing .86 points per game with a Plus / Minus of 2. Moneygang is contributing 1.29 hits per game, for a total of 9 hits. They are attempting 3.57 shots per game, with a total of 25 shots attempted, scoring 16% of those chances. They’ve played 175 minutes in 7 games playing for an average of 25.10 minutes of time on ice per game. They’ve scored .68 points per 20 minutes. They were the 1^st star 0 times, the 2^nd star 0 times and the 3^rd star 2 times. The ratings that derive these stats are 8 DK, 8 SH, 8 PA, 8 BC, 8 GR, 8 FO, 7 PC, 7 DC, 9 OV, 7 SP, 7 SS, 20 WS, 0 LD, 0 FG, 0 PO and have 40 EXP. There were 105 TPE spent on this build. This player has spent their TPE in a balanced fashion instead of focusing a few areas. There offensive production is pretty good for their TPE spent, but could maybe benefit from focusing on fewer areas. However, their shot percentage is the highest so far at 16%, they just attempt fewer shots than the players analyzed before.

 

8^th, Owen two, @do3bo1, Ottawa Lynx, they’ve scored 0 Goals, contributed 4 Assists, for a total of 4 points. . They are contributing .57 points per game with a Plus / Minus of 2. two is contributing 2.43 hits per game, for a total of 17 hits. They are attempting 3.29 shots per game, with a total of 23 shots attempted, scoring 0% of those chances. They’ve played 163 minutes in 7 games playing for an average of 23.38 minutes of time on ice per game. They’ve scored .49 points per 20 minutes. They were the 1^st star 0 times, the 2^nd star 0 times and the 3^rd star 1 time. The ratings that derive these stats are 10 DK, 23 SH, 25 PA, 40 BC,50 GR, 5 FO, 0 PC, 5 DC, 12 OV, 50 SP, 2 SS, 50 WS, 10 LD, 50 FG, 0 PO and have 40 EXP. There were 332 TPE spent on this build. This player has focus spent on GR, SP, WS and FG, with a moderate investment in BC. Their 0% shooting may indicate that ignoring OV and DC is potentially a problem, if you’re aiming to have good offensive production.

 

9^th, Alex Versti, @VOID Stiles, Mexico City Kings,  they’ve scored 1 Goal, contributed 1 Assist, for a total of 2 points. . They are contributing .33 points per game with a Plus / Minus of 2. Versti is contributing 2 hits per game, for a total of 12 hits. They are attempting 1.83 shots per game, with a total of 11 shots attempted, scoring 9.09% of those chances. They’ve played 170 minutes in 6 games playing for an average of 28.48 minutes of time on ice per game. They’ve scored .23 points per 20 minutes. They were the 1^st star 0 times, the 2^nd star 0 times and the 3^rd star 0 times. The ratings that derive these stats are 15 DK, 20 SH, 30 PA, 10 BC, 0 GR, 10 FO, 20 PC, 25 DC, 25 OV, 30 SP, 10 SS, 15 WS, 0 LD, 0 FG, 10 PO and have 43 EXP. There were 220 TPE spent on this build. This player has built in a balanced fashion. The pattern I’ve noticed so far, is those that are more focused on fewer ratings tend to have more offensive production than those that spread their points thin.

 

10^th, Nick Abbott, @preds, Mexico City Kings, they’ve scored 1 Goal, contributed 1 Assist, for a total of 2 points. . They are contributing .33 points per game with a Plus / Minus of 1. Abbott is contributing 1.33 hits per game, for a total of 8 hits. They are attempting 1 shots per game, with a total of 6 shots attempted, scoring 16.67% of those chances. They’ve played 154 minutes in 6 games playing for an average of 25.68 minutes of time on ice per game. They’ve scored .26 points per 20 minutes. They were the 1^st star 0 times, the 2^nd star 0 times and the 3^rd star 1 time. The ratings that derive these stats are 7 DK, 6 SH, 30 PA, 5 BC, 2 GR, 1 FO, 3 PC, 3 DC, 25 OV, 24 SP, 26 SS, 50 WS, 5 LD, 2 FG, 2 PO and have 43 EXP. There were 191 TPE spent on this build. This player has built in a balanced fashion with the exception of heavily investing in WS. This is a further data point showing that balanced spending doesn’t pay in the high offensive production department.

 

This wraps up the Left Winger portion of the analysis. Next we’ll be moving onto the top 10 Right Winger’s analyzed in order of Plus / Minus in descending order.

 

1^st, Joseph Poole, @Itz_Viperz, Philadelphia Reapers,  they’ve scored 2 Goals, contributed 7 Assists, for a total of 9 Points. They are contributing 1.5 points per game with a Plus / Minus of 10. Poole is contributing 2.17 hits per game, for a total of 13 hits. They are attempting 5.83 shots per game, with a total of 35 shots attempted, scoring 5.71% of those chances. They’ve played 168 minutes in 6 games playing for an average of 28.12 minutes of time on ice per game. They’ve scored 1.07 points per 20 minutes. They were the 1^st star 0 time, the 2^nd star 2 times and the 3^rd star 0 times. The ratings that derive these stats are 20 DK, 21 SH, 0 PA, 0 BC, 0 GR, 10 FO, 43 PC, 30 DC, 72 OV, 24 SP, 40 SS, 22 WS, 0 LD, 0 FG, 0 PO and have 46 EXP. There were 292 TPE spent on this build. This player prioritized OV and has a strong investment in PC, SS and a moderate investment in DV allowing Poole to be the top Right Winger by Plus / Minus in today’s analysis. Just a note, but the top Left Winger and top Right Winger are both Philadelphia Reapers, there must be something in the water in Philadelphia.

 

2^nd, Alex Bridges IV, @Oatex, Houston Bulls, they’ve scored 3 Goals, contributed 1 Assist, for a total of 4 Points. They are contributing .67 points per game with a Plus / Minus of 7. Bridges is contributing 2.5 hits per game, for a total of 15 hits. They are attempting 4 shots per game, with a total of 24 shots attempted, scoring 12.5% of those chances. They’ve played 151 minutes in 6 games playing for an average of 25.20 minutes of time on ice per game. They’ve scored .53 points per 20 minutes. They were the 1^st star 0 times, the 2^nd star 0 times and the 3^rd star 2 times. The ratings that derive these stats are 38 DK, 48 SH, 10 PA, 0 BC, 0 GR, 0 FO, 12 PC, 61 DC, 84 OV, 22 SP, 2 SS, 5 WS, 0 LD, 0 FG, 0 PO and have 43 EXP. There were 313 TPE spent on this build. This player prioritized OV and DC and  has a moderate investment in DK and SH. This approach was good enough to be second in PLUS / MINUS, I do note their shooting % is pretty high, they just don’t attempt as many shots per game as Poole did.

 

3^rd, CJ Daniels, @xNJDevilsFanx, Saskatoon Wild, they’ve scored 5 Goals, contributed 5 Assists, for a total of 10 Points. They are contributing 1.67 points per game with a Plus / Minus of 5. Daniels is contributing 1.67 hits per game, for a total of 10 hits. They are attempting  7.83 shots per game, with a total of 47 shots attempted, scoring 10.64% of those chances. They’ve played 170 minutes in 6 games playing for an average of 28.42 minutes of time on ice per game. They’ve scored 1.17 points per 20 minutes. They were the 1^st star 2 times, the 2^nd star 0 times and the 3^rd star 1 time. The ratings that derive these stats are 44 DK, 32 SH, 40 PA, 0 BC, 3 GR, 15 FO, 6 PC, 48 DC, 72 OV, 43 SP, 45 SS, 50 WS, 0 LD, 0 FG, 0 PO and have 46 EXP. There were 400 TPE spent on this build. This player focused OV and was balanced in DK, SH, PA, DC, SP, SS and WS. This player actually has the best offensive production of all the winger’s analyzed so far, contributing 1.67  points per game, but that isn’t too surprising because this player is capped TPE wise at 400, so you would expect them to perform well. Their overall game surprisingly only managed to come in at a PLUS / MINUS of 5 however, which is good for third out of the Right Wingers and tied for 6^th out of all 20 Winger’s analyzed.

 

4^th, Agustin Martinez, @SleepyPlayz, Mexico City Kings, they’ve scored 3 Goals, contributed 6 Assists, for a total of 9 Points. They are contributing 1.5 points per game with a Plus / Minus of 4. Martinez is contributing 2.17 hits per game, for a total of 13 hits. They are attempting  2.67 shots per game, with a total of 16 shots attempted, scoring 18.75% of those chances. They’ve played 178 minutes in 6 games playing for an average of 29.69 minutes of time on ice per game. They’ve scored 1.01 points per 20 minutes. They were the 1^st star 0 times, the 2^nd star 2 times and the 3^rd star 1 time. The ratings that derive these stats are 20 DK, 20 SH, 0 PA, 0 BC, 0 GR, 0 FO, 11 PC, 50 DC, 70 OV, 20 SP, 70 SS, 30 WS, 0 LD, 0 FG, 0 PO and have 43 EXP. There were 291 TPE spent on this build. This player focused OV and SS, a good investment in DC and a moderate investment in DK, SH, SP, WS. This is another high offensive performer showing that a focused approach of 70 OV and 70 SS can produce good offensive numbers.

 

5^th, Miklo Zabanachev,  @Dame, Houston Bulls,  they’ve scored 1 Goals contributed 0 Assists, for a total of 1 Point. They are contributing 0.17 points per game with a Plus / Minus of 4. Zabanachev is contributing 1.17 hits per game, for a total of 7 hits. They are attempting  0.5 shots per game, with a total of 3 shots attempted, scoring  33.33% of those chances. They’ve played 86 minutes in 6 games playing for an average of 14.34 minutes of time on ice per game. They’ve scored .23 points per 20 minutes. They were the 1^st star 0 times, the 2^nd star 0 times and the 3^rd star 0 times. The ratings that derive these stats are 0 DK, 0 SH, 0 PA, 0 BC, 0 GR, 0 FO, 0 PC, 0 DC, 0 OV, 0 SP, 0 SS, 0 WS, 0 LD, 0 FG, 0 PO and have 40 EXP. There were 0 TPE spent on this build. This result kind of surprises me, here’s a player that hasn’t spent a single point of TPE on their build, and yet they are the 5^th best Right Winger according to Plus / Minus. They do have limited playing time which could factor in, only playing in 14.34 minutes per game. This is an interesting result, maybe it will work as a baseline for all of our other players, considering it is a blank canvas essentially.

 

6^th, Jacob Seed, @oilmandan, San Diego Marlins,  they’ve scored 6 Goals contributed 2 Assists, for a total of 8 Points. They are contributing 1.33 points per game with a Plus / Minus of 3. Zabanachev is contributing 1.67 hits per game, for a total of 10 hits. They are attempting  5.5 shots per game, with a total of 33 shots attempted, scoring  18.18% of those chances. They’ve played 168 minutes in 6 games playing for an average of 28.04 minutes of time on ice per game. They’ve scored .95 points per 20 minutes. They were the 1^st star 1 time, the 2^nd star 2 times and the 3^rd star 0 times. The ratings that derive these stats are 50 DK, 42 SH, 0 PA, 0 BC, 0 GR, 0 FO, 10 PC, 10 DC, 31  OV, 65 SP, 56 SS, 46 WS, 0 LD, 0 FG, 0 PO and have 40 EXP. There were 310  TPE spent on this build. Seed focused somewhat heavily on SP, SS and DK, with moderate investments in OV and SH. They have good offensive production, so the approach isn’t a bad one.

 

7^th,  Kyle Evans, @Kyle Evans, Ottawa Lynx, they’ve scored 3 Goals contributed 4 Assists, for a total of 7 Points. They are contributing 1 point per game with a Plus / Minus of 3. Evans is contributing 1.71 hits per game, for a total of 12 hits. They are attempting 3.71 shots per game, with a total of 26 shots attempted, scoring  11.54% of those chances. They’ve played 196 minutes in 7 games playing for an average of 28.04 minutes of time on ice per game. They’ve scored .71 points per 20 minutes. They were the 1^st star 1 time, the 2^nd star 0 times and the 3^rd star 0 times. The ratings that derive these stats are 12 DK, 32 SH, 34 PA, 24 BC, 0 GR, 0 FO, 0 PC, 24 DC, 52  OV, 33 SP, 40 SS, 42 WS, 0 LD, 0 FG, 0 PO and have 40 EXP. There were 293  TPE spent on this build. Evans focused mostly on OV, SS and WS, and is otherwise balanced. Their approach does provide good offensive production, producing 1 point per game.

 

8^th, Roger Lamothe, @Webby1121, Philadelphia Reapers, they’ve scored 2 Goals contributed 1 Assist, for a total of 3 Points. They are contributing 0.5 point per game with a Plus / Minus of 3. Lamothe is contributing 1 hits per game, for a total of 6 hits. They are attempting 1 shot per game, with a total of 6 shots attempted, scoring  33.33% of those chances. They’ve played 149 minutes in 6 games playing for an average of 24.98 minutes of time on ice per game. They’ve scored .40 points per 20 minutes. They were the 1^st star 0 times, the 2^nd star 0 times and the 3^rd star 0 times. The ratings that derive these stats are 4 DK, 5 SH, 5 PA, 0 BC, 0 GR, 0 FO, 5 PC, 25 DC, 25  OV, 5 SP, 5 SS, 5 WS, 5 LD, 0 FG, 0 PO and have 40 EXP. There were 94  TPE spent on this build. Lamothe focused OV and DC, and is balanced across the board with the rest of their points. This is a promising start, but maybe the data I’ve shown here today may support focusing a little more heavily on fewer ratings. Lamothe is getting the best bang for their buck, having less than 100 TPE to spend on their build, and still showing up in the top 10 list for their position is a good accomplishment.

 

9^th, Raoul Cyr, @Tyler, Las Vegas Aces, they’ve scored 2 Goals contributed 3 Assists, for a total of 5 Points. They are contributing 0.83 point per game with a Plus / Minus of 2. Cyr is contributing 1.5 hits per game, for a total of 9 hits. They are attempting 5.83 shot per game, with a total of 35 shots attempted, scoring 5.71% of those chances. They’ve played 165 minutes in 6 games playing for an average of 27.57 minutes of time on ice per game. They’ve scored .60 points per 20 minutes. They were the 1^st star 0 times, the 2^nd star 0 times and the 3^rd star 1 time. The ratings that derive these stats are 14 DK, 21 SH, 66 PA, 0 BC, 0 GR, 0 FO, 14 PC, 64 DC, 70  OV, 39 SP, 0 SS, 0 WS, 0 LD, 0 FG, 0 PO and have 40 EXP. There were 288  TPE spent on this build. Cyr focused PA,DC and OV and moderately SP. This focused approach produced good offensive production of .83 points per game and a Plus / Minus of 2.

 

10^th, William Tree, @Bubba, Ottawa Lynx, they’ve scored 2 Goals contributed 1 Assist, for a total of 3 Points. They are contributing 0.43 point per game with a Plus / Minus of 1. Tree is contributing 2.57 hits per game, for a total of 18 hits. They are attempting 4 shot per game, with a total of 28 shots attempted, scoring 7.14% of those chances. They’ve played 179 minutes in 7 games playing for an average of 25.61 minutes of time on ice per game. They’ve scored .33 points per 20 minutes. They were the 1^st star 0 times, the 2^nd star 2 times and the 3^rd star 0 times. The ratings that derive these stats are 15 DK, 15 SH, 0 PA, 0 BC, 0 GR, 0 FO, 15 PC, 15 DC, 0  OV, 0 SP, 0 SS, 0 WS, 0 LD, 0 FG, 0 PO and have 40 EXP. There were 60  TPE spent on this build. Tree focused has focused on DK, SH, PC and DC. This approach seems to work for them, registering a Plus / Minus of 1 with a 60 TPE build is pretty impressive.

 

In general my observation is that the Wingers who put up the most points were heavily invested in OV and DC. The thing that the top 4 points scoring wingers (scoring 1.5 points or more a game) have in common is that they all have 70+ OV, 30+ DC and 20+ DK. 3 of the 4 players had an EXP of 43+ with one player having 40 EXP. Maybe this initial dive points to the importance of OV, DC and DK for offensive production for wingers.

 

I hope that this article was enlightening and entertaining for everyone. It was a joy to compile and jot it all down and helps open my eyes to the inner workings of the league, hopefully you will get out of it as much as I did.

 

4400+ Words

 

Edited 16 hours ago by LucyXpher
typo