An Inside look at the VHL S98 Playoff Predictions

[badcolethetitan 1,062]

An Inside look at the VHL S98 Playoff Predictions

Special thanks to @youloser1337 for the data!

 

Play-Ins

 

New York Americans vs. Vancouver Wolves

 

The New York Americans took on the Vancouver Wolves in the first play-in for the playoffs. In total, 53.2% had the Vancouver Wolves winning the first round and moving onto the next round, with the other being 46.8% for the New York Americans, showing that the public (79 total voters) slightly favored the Wolves. Interestingly enough, the most common picked length was 4 games, with 53.2% of the total people picking it to only go four games. It's interesting because I didn't expect the gap to be so close between VAN/NYA, where I personally thought that Vancouver had the edge over New York, but it seems the public perceived it differently.

 

Outcome: NYA in 4 

 

HC Davos Dynamo vs. London United

 

This one was a bit more one-sided, with the total being 93.7% favoring Davos to win. I guess London had some loyal believers, as they still had 6.3% of the total vote picking them, which is funny. I mean, if they got it right somehow, they would've looked like geniuses. I will say that the most common picked being 4 games at a total of 48.1% is interesting, because Davos on paper was better than London, but almost half of the voters actually believed that London could take a game, and well they did. Regardless, this one was basically a free pick, as it was clear Davos was going to win.

 

Outcome: DAV in 4

 

First Round

 

Toronto Legion vs. New York Americans

 

Now we've actually gotten to the real playoffs, with the Toronto Legion taking on the New York Americans. The Legion were HEAVY favorites in this matchup, totaling 87.3% of the voters deciding to pick them. Vancouver had 8.9% and New York had 3.8%, which is actually pretty low. Personally, I had felt that Toronto had overperformed during the season and that one wildcard was due to win a series. With Moscow being as strong as they were, I believed that Toronto was ultimately going to fall, and they did, however I thought it was going to be Vancouver taking them out. The most common amount of games was 6, with 59.5% of the people voting it. It's kind of crazy that people despite heavily favoring Toronto to win, that the series would actually be a very close one, going 6 games. In the end, Toronto ended up falling to New York in five games which was probably the craziest outcome. Over half of the people had NYA losing round one, and then only 3.8% had them winning the second round. Bracket buster.

 

Outcome: NYA in 5

 

Seattle Bears vs. Calgary Wranglers

 

On the other side of the NA bracket, we had Seattle taking on Calgary. Of course, we now know that Calgary won the cup against Moscow, but I don't think many people expected them to go that far. 69.6% voted Seattle to take down Calgary, and rightfully so. Seattle had been looking good most the season and seemed like one of the favorites to make it out of NA, but they fell in 6 to Calgary. On top of that, people again believed that it would be a 6 game series, with 51.9% choosing that as an option. It's crazy that Toronto vs. New York was voted six games, despite being the first seed vs wild card, but then second seed vs third seed is also six games. People believe that the wildcard buff is real!

 

Outcome: CGY in 6

 

Moscow Menace vs. HC Davos Dynamo

 

Now we flip to EU, where we have Moscow taking on Davos. For the most part, people believed that Moscow was going to win this series, with 72.2% of the total vote. Davos was able to pick up 26.6% of the vote, with some people still believing London could pull off the impossible, the London faithful! Regardless, I guess the most common choice so far is going to be six game series, with 44.3% of the votes. I am seeing a trend that most of the majority is picking games to go to six. Regardless, this was one series that was extremely fast, with Moscow deleting Davos in 4 games.

 

Outcome: MOS in 4

 

Helsinki Titans vs. Riga Reign

 

The last first round matchup, we have Helsinki taking on Riga. This series was actually quite close voting wise, with 57% of the people tallying towards Helsinki, and 43% towards Riga. I think this series was going to be a lot closer than what was actually indicated from the voters, saying that Helsinki has a 57% chance to win. I think it was more like 50-50 for both teams, as they had both similar seasons and ultimately anyone could've won. In the end, Riga ended up besting Helsinki and was going onto the next round to meet Moscow. Also, this is the first time that the most common amount of games wasn't six (excluding wild card games), where 38% voted for 7 games. Six was right behind it though, with a total of 36.7% of the voters picking it.

 

Outcome: RIGA in 6

 

Conference Finals

 

Calgary Wranglers vs. New York Americans

 

We're finally getting to the good parts, with the Calgary Wranglers taking on the New York Americans. I just want to point out, that 89.9% had neither of these teams winning the conference finals. In fact, 0 people had chose NYA to make it to the finals, and well, they obviously didn't. However, it's still crazy that out of 79 voters, that only 8 people chose Calgary to make it to the finals, I thought it would be a bit more. On top of that, that includes nobody choosing NYA to make it. Also, yeah, of course 6 games was the most chosen with 58.2% because at this point, it just should be the most common chosen. One thing I will say is that 64.6% of voters had Toronto winning and making it to the finals, with second being Seattle at 20.3%. We also had some voters for Vancouver, with 5.1% to make it to the finals. Very interesting to see and that Calgary was one of the least chosen options for NA, but made it all the way.

 

Outcome: CGY in 5

 

Moscow Menace vs. Riga Reign

 

Onto the EU side, we have Moscow vs Riga. More people predicted Moscow to win, with a majority actually. They had 53.2% of voters assuming Moscow would make it out of EU and make it to the finals. On the flip side, Riga was able to pull 8.9% of the voters to vote for them to win and go to the finals, the only team less than them was London with 1.3%. After that, the second most common was Davos (wildcard buff I guess) with 20.3% and then Helsinki with 16.5%. Regardless, it seems that the majority had Moscow winning and moving on, and they did, so no real crazy datapoints here. Oh yeah, 6 games, 57%, you should know by now.

 

Outcome: MOS in 6

 

VHL Finals

 

Moscow Menace vs. Calgary Wranglers

 

We have finally made it to the finals! The most common cup winner was the Moscow Menace with 30.4%, which is almost 1/3 people voting for them, kind of crazy. Calgary was able to have only 2.5% of the voters vote for them, which is literally two people. They had the odds stacked up against them yet were able to pull it out in the end! I'll post below the odds of every team and some more takeaways. Also, 59.5% for six games in the finals. Congratulations to Calgary!

 

Outcome: CGY in 7

 

What can we takeaway:

-The most predicted games in playoffs was "6" with a majority picking it every series, besides wildcard. (3/7 of the series were six games in total, so it is the most likely to occur based off of this playoff series lengths)

-People for the most part will always favor the #1 seed (Moscow had 30.4% of the voters pick them, despite having the "Victory Cup" curse)

-The "higher seed" went 5-4 in playoffs, meaning they have a higher chance of winning, but not by as much as you think (picking "all higher seeds" usually will never work)

-A random wildcard will most likely take down the one seed (happened past two seasons, with Toronto losing to New York and last season both wildcards winning)

 

Most likely cup winner and amount of games:

-Moscow (30.4%) in 6 games (59.5%)

 

Reseeding the playoffs based on who people voted to win the cup (higher votes mean higher seed):

NA:
1-Toronto Legion (26.6%)

2-Seattle Bears (12.7%)

3-Vancouver Wolves (3.8%)

4-Calgary Wranglers (2.5%)

5-New York Americans (0.0%)

EU:

1-Moscow Menace (30.4%)

2-HC Davos Dynamo (13.9%)

3-Helsinki Titans (7.6%)

4-Riga Reign (2.5%)

5-London United (0.0%)

 

Advice for next time:

 

Don't always pick the higher seed to win, because STHS does STHS things and some random team will go on a run and probably win it all.

 

1500+ words

Edited Sunday at 07:42 PM by badcolethetitan

[youloser1337 1,145]

On 5/4/2025 at 3:41 PM, badcolethetitan said:

Special thanks to @youloser1337 for the data!

[BOOM 9,184]

People slept on the Wranglers....