Claimed: Why the Ottawa Lynx can win the Founders Cup

[diamond_ace 3,114]

It's been an odd VHLM season so far. The Saskatoon Wild, largely expected to be the favorites, have struggled out of the gate. Much of this was down to a goalie problem, as Brody Neufeld, the player Saskatoon drafted 6th overall to become their starter, hasn't lived up to expectations and is now largely projected as a bust. Enter Tristan Iseult, formerly of the Yukon Rush, who Saskatoon traded for and is now their clear starter and likely the most talented goalie in the league. The other primary factor is the loss of Oyorra Arroyo, picked at 5th overall to be a top line forward, but was called up to play for the Calgary Wranglers of the VHL. Yukon, the team that traded Iseult, was much higher initially in the standings but has fallen to 4th, unsurprisingly. Topping the league at the moment is the Oslo Storm, who have recently decided that it might actually be a smart idea to play their best goalie in Arvid Aamo rather than bench him for the barely viable Emil Woods. Oslo haven't really shown much reason to believe they'll slow down, despite the fact that their roster isn't really on par, so they're definitely a threat going forward. The Las Vegas Aces haven't shown much reason to think they'll escape the bottom, although they're relatively competitive for last place unlike most seasons. The remaining team is of course the Ottawa Lynx. In 2nd right now, have been 2nd most of the season behind first Yukon then Oslo (briefly 3rd behind both) and were expected to be 2nd behind Saskatoon. With Oslo not slowing down and Saskatoon getting back to expectations, why have faith in Ottawa to lift themselves over the hump?

 

1. Depth

It isn't much, but Ottawa has a full roster of players. Even a replacement level 30 TPE guy is 30 TPE better than a bot, and while a lot of Ottawa's players are still at either the initial 30 TPE or only slightly off the mark, surely that can count for some points here and there. Daniel Kenny, a 35 TPE guy, just scored in a shootout to push Ottawa past Oslo in a game. These guys can contribute. Brendan Wilson, Tomos Walker, and Wolf Edmunds are all on 38 TPE, and two of them are still showing up on the site here and there and just have intermittent real life things at the moment. Ambrose Charizard, one of the returnees from last season, has 48 TPE and is a decent scorer. Even guys like Euan Hamill, Marvin Cookie, and Declan Burns who haven't added anything yet, they still have a role to play, and it's better than throwing OTT LW1 out there, so this roster doesn't have room for a single bot player.

 

2. Top talent given time to develop

This roster has three guys that are largely considered top tier prospects for the upcoming VHL draft class (not all will be available for the draft itself): Matt Thompson, Samuel Gate, and Sebastian Ironside. All three are a season back of the guys who have hit the 175 applied cap already, but it's a long season. This early on, they're all at about 100 applied (140s total) and presumably would be at or near the 175 applied cap by the playoffs. Tier 2 guys, players who can contribute well to the team and are above the average depth player, include Mikhail Vega, Alvaro Jokinen, and Paul Dimirio Jr (whose update thread is still in Saskatoon's section). Mikka Pajari has a handful of TPE that hasn't been applied yet and could find himself in tier 2 as well. The thing that's interesting here is that some other teams have guys who are already at the 175 cap, but since every team makes the playoffs, by the time it matters these guys will be in the same boat as Thompson, Gate, and Ironside, as they get close to that mark themselves. It doesn't matter if Saskatoon has Johannes Vilhjalmsson and Bryce Zhields, because they'll be negated by the Ottawa three come playoffs.

 

3. Arbin Asipi Jr

Asipi was selected first overall by Ottawa in not the most recent draft, but the draft before, the S59 VHLM Draft. In S59, Ottawa didn't have much in front of him, and so he took some lumps while developing. The goalie position is so vital in the VHLM that GM diamond_ace is happy to have gotten Asipi and had that extra season. He's primarily a welfare guy so the development hasn't been at the pace of guys like Thompson, Gate, and Ironside, or even Saskatoon's new goalie Iseult, but with two seasons' worth of development, Asipi is able to keep Ottawa in it against teams, and sometimes turn in performances where he stands on his head. If either Ottawa or Saskatoon finish first in the regular season, and the other takes out Oslo in the semis, it's likely Asipi will have to face off against Iseult in the finals, which is the only goalie matchup where he's the less developed - interestingly, both guys are in the Quebec pipeline for the VHL. Even in this case, he's good enough to hold his own and let the skaters do the work. If Saskatoon falls early and Ottawa finds Oslo as a finals opponent (or better yet, Yukon) then Asipi will find himself at an advantage in goal.

 

4. Games in hand

Ottawa's schedule is back-loaded. At this stage, Oslo (who are the only team ahead of Ottawa) have played 38 games while Ottawa have only played 34. 6 points back with 4 games in hand is favorable math for Ottawa, especially considering they'd play those 4 games with a more developed roster. Saskatoon are chasing, but are still 5 points back of Ottawa with only a single game in hand. It's reasonable that Ottawa could finish top, given the games in hand, and avoid the pesky semifinal against Oslo or Saskatoon, pitting them against each other and instead facing either a depleted Yukon or Las Vegas.

 

5. Trading pieces

Yes, Saskatoon's goalie problem is solved, but it took them picks to do it. They spent their first and second rounders for next season to acquire Iseult and Loui Laksson, a 30 TPE defenseman. With that done, Ottawa is sitting on an entire draft's worth of picks, ready to find the right deal. Do they send them to Yukon, picking up some of their top guys in Tribuncovs and/or Pilgrim, since Yukon has established themselves as a seller by dealing Iseult? Do they perhaps try to come to an agreement with Oslo for Cast and/or Harding, if Oslo doesn't decide to load up themselves? Vegas has perhaps some less immediate options such as Kovalev, Triscuit, or Bronstein, but less immediate options might also command a lower price. Either way, with Saskatoon out of the market, Ottawa positions itself as the primary buyer in a market where at least two teams are likely to sell. That should create a bit of a buyer's market for them between now and the deadline.

 

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