15 Games: 3 Teams: 2 Spots

[omgitshim 901]

We're coming down to the final stretch of the season, and the league has somewhat clumped together into 3 groups: The Power Three (Americans, Titans, & Bears), The Middle Tier (Wranglers, Reign, HC Dynamo), and The Bottom Rung (Meute & Legion). With 5 playoff spots up to grabs, the Power Three are all but a lock to get in, but only two of the Middle Tier will survive. Which will it be? Let's take a look at the remaining schedule and how well these teams have done against their opponents so far.

 

Calgary Opponent	Games Against	W	L
Americans	2	3	5
Titans	3	1	8
Bears	3	1	6
Reign	2	6	2
HC Dynamo	2	5	3
Meute	2	6	2
Legion	1	8	1

 

Davos Opponent	Games Against	W	L
Americans	1	1	8
Titans	5	1	4
Bears	1	4	5
Wranglers	2	3	5
Reign	1	5	5
Meute	3	4	3
Legion	2	8	1

 

Riga	Games Against	W	L
Americans	5	0	6
Titans	3	3	4
Bears	1	3	6
Wranglers	2	2	6
HC Dynamo	1	5	5
Meute	2	5	3
Legion	1	9	0

 

The key takeaways at first glance: Davos has the fewest games against the Power Three with 7 while Riga has the most at 9. Calgary will play both Davos and Riga twice each while Davos and Riga only play each other once. The Wranglers are a combined 11-5 against the other two, so they seem to have an advantage in the head-to-head matchup. We'll pencil in 3 wins out of 4 there, and 3 more wins against the bottom rung. Of their 8 Power Three games, only two are against the Americans, who they played well against early on, while they've only managed a single win against both the Titans and Bears. A split of the American pair and stealing one from the remaining six matches gives Wranglers an estimated 8 wins the rest of the way (and given their current 2 point lead in the standings, we'll give them an overall score of 9).

 

Shifting to the Reign, they have split the season series with HC Dynamo 5-5, so it's a toss-up who wins that game. Since we have 1 extra win for either the Reign or HC Dynamo from the Wranglers analysis, we'll split the difference and say both Riga and Davos go 1-2 in their 3 intermixed games. Riga's got 3 games left against the bottom rung, and while they are only 5-3 against Meute and might slip up there, they are a perfect 9-0 against the Legion, so we'll mark them down for a full 3 wins. The harsh part comes with 9 games against the Power Three. Surprisingly, Riga is 3-4 against the Titans with 3 more games against them, albeit on the road so let's count that as 1. They've gone 3-6 against the Bears and their last game against them is at home, so maybe they steal a game here. Unfortunately, they've got 5 remaining against the Americans, and they're a pathetic 0-6. Let's give them a break and say they manage 1 more win. That gives them a total of 7 for the rest of the season; good news for Calgary, not so much for them.

 

Finally we shift to Davos. 5 games against the bottom rung is nice, but given their 4-3 record against the Meute, let's say they stumble in one of their three matches and pencil in 4 wins. Against the Power Three, their game against Americans is a loss, but they've managed to nearly split with the Bears at 4-5, and if Riga gets credit at home for a 3-6 record, I gotta give Davos credit as well. Finally, they've got 5 games left against the Titans and have gone just 1-4. Let's give them another 1-4, which gives them a full score of 7 to close the season.

 

So what can we conclude? Not much really, and this is why we play the games. It seems like Calgary has a slight edge due to the better head-to-head win rate against the other two and the current slight lead in the standings, but Riga and Davos are neck and neck, and their match-up in the season finale could very well determine who makes it in. For now though, I see Davos just squeaking by due to their recent high rate of forcing overtime in their losses. Every extra point counts!

[diamond_ace 3,112]

The thing I think is interesting is that each of the teams competing for this has a seemingly "preferred" top tier team they're almost 500 against. Calgary-NY, Davos-Seattle, Riga-Helsinki.

[DollarAndADream 3,356]

It's going to be a fun race! I think at first glance, Davos has the best chance to get in, at least if they play according to those averages.