Rogueginger

Statistically Advanced - Week Six: New York Americans Statistically Advanced is a weekly feature which will give an in-depth look at a VHL team, discussing said team's weaknesses and strengths, using fancy "advanced" stats to predict trends. Each week, I'll analyze a different VHL team. Warning: If you hate numbers, this post will likely not be for you. This week will focus on the New York Americans. That's right, I'm back! I must apologize, I kind of went AWOL from the VHL for a while, and didn't really tell anyone. But fear not, I have returned! Of course, I do owe you all an explanation. Recently, I've begun writing for a real sports blog (shamless plug for http://truschoolsports.com/. My most recent article is the one comparing Phil Kessel's projections to Mats Sundin's career totals). Anyway, let's get into a new installment of Statistically Advanced! Since the VHL season is so young, I don't have Corsi stats for the Americans this week. I could've held off a while so I had more games to analyze, but I just wanted to get a post out to you guys. Don't worry, there's enough to look at! (Speaking of Corsi, Taylor Hall became one of my favourite NHL players this week when he revealed that he's an advanced stats geek - sorry if that video doesn't work outside of Canada) Since this week is about the New York Americans, this post will probably be freer than any other. And before we start talking about the VHL's most 'Murican team, here's a picture of the most influential American NHLer ever having his jersey retired. Alright, it's good to be back! If you're new to this series I do, you'll probably want to read my first post, which explains some of the things I'll be talking about. Team Overview The Americans are a very interesting team. Last season, they missed the playoffs by 5 points. However, this season they've started hot, and are currently 2nd in the North American Conference. Most people expect that they'll be a bubble team, with a chance to squeeze into a playoff spot. New York made some big changes in the offseason, and have started the season with a notably different (and perhaps improved) lineup. So, the question is, did the Americans' GM make the right moves to turn a bubble team into a contender? Well, that's a very difficult question to answer. Obviously, we haven't seen much of this Amerks (do people call them that? I'm gonna call them that.) group, and so can't be sure how they'll mesh. But, the first 8 games of the season have given us a glimpse of what could be in New York's future. Notes (Since we have no Corsi stats, there's no point in doing an "Advanced Trends" section. All stats will be presented here in the form of quick hits.) Last season, the Americans were quite a solid offensive team. They had the best powerplay in the league, and averaged the second-most shots per game. This was largely due to Conner Low and Simon Tremblay, two absolutely lethal weapons (it's interesting that Low managed 83 points, despite being a defenseman). Staying on the theme of last year for a while, it's also worth mentioning that the Amerks' Achilles heel was undoubtedly defense. They were 8th in the league in goals against. Their penalty kill was brutal. They regularly allowed over 35 shots per game. New York were 2nd in hits, which definitely implies that they didn't have the puck a whole lot. Finally, this team's faceoff stats were abysmal; 9th in the league, winning 40.96% of all draws. One last point about Season 36. You should all know that I hate plus/minus as a stat, and rarely consider it to be a good indicator of anything. However, you can make inferences from a particularly good or bad rating. Last season, the Americans had three players with a +/- worse than -40. Compare this to the worst +/- players in the NHL: Obviously, you'll notice that these guys aren't scrubs. That just proves that +/- is stupid as an indicator of player success. However, you'll also see that most of the teams those players play for are either terrible (sorry, Edmonton and Buffalo) or allow a lot of goals. The Americans allow a LOT of goals. (Interestingly, 2 of the 3 -40 players are no longer members of the New York Americans. A good sign of change!) Speaking of players no longer being in New York, some of you may be surprised to learn that, of the 18 skaters with the Amerks, 5 of them are new for this season. Quite a refreshing amount of turnover. It's clear that management in New York is trying to get this team off the ground. New stars like (former Davos player) Odin Tordahl will certainly help! Last season, New York struggled a bit with goaltending. Starter Brick Wahl wasn't quite a... brick wall, per se. However, in the short sample we've seen him in this year, he's been rock solid. He's upped his save percentage from .911 to .938, which is a huge leap. If he can maintain that for an extended period of time, the Americans will have an opportunity to win many more games. The Americans are still getting a hell of a lot of shots, averaging about 38 per game. Their shooting percentage is low, at only 6.8%, so it won't surprise me if their production increases as the season progresses. As it stands now, it looks like they've sacrificed some of their offensive firepower for defensive stability, but that could be largely due to some unfortunate puck luck. Speaking of puck luck, how could we have a Statistically Advanced article without mentioning PDO? Last season's Americans finished with a PDO of 99. This season, they've improved to 100.7. That would suggest that the level they're playing at now is probably a more accurate representation of this team's potential. So, I think New York will be better than they were in S36. Prediction for the Season The Americans are definitely a team I'll be keeping an eye on as S37 progresses. I think, if Wahl can be a better goaltender than he was last season, and the team's stars (Low, Tremblay, Tordahl) continue to impress, then New York will be a playoff team. I really don't think it would be a stretch to say I can definitely see them sneaking into the postseason in the 3rd or 2nd spot in their Conference. And I'd love that to happen, because who doesn't love freedom? Hell yeah, Murica! Oh, I almost forgot. Before I end this, I'm obligated to take this opportunity to laugh at the Vancouver Canucks. Hahahahahahaha! You gave up 7 goals in one period! Ha! (For those who don't know what I'm talking about, here.) Wow, so that's what it's like to write one of these. I'd almost forgotten. Anyway, I like getting you guys to pick my next team. Who should I look at next? I've made a poll on this post, so vote there! As always, please call me out if I said anything stupid or wrong. Let me know! I appreciate all feedback! I know this week's article wasn't as good as some of the other ones, but don't worry. I'll be back with better content! It's just a little tough to find time for these. Let me know what you thought in the comments! You can also reach me on twitter ' class="bbc_url">@charlieocc where I'll mostly be complaining about the Maple Leafs.

Mikael Svensson Vasteras Jr Eagles +2

Hey man, whatever works, right?

Statistically Advanced – Week Five: HC Davos Dynamo Statistically Advanced is a weekly feature which will give an in-depth look at a VHL team, discussing said team's weaknesses and strengths, using fancy "advanced" stats to predict trends. Each week, I'll analyze a different VHL team. Warning: If you hate numbers, this post will likely not be for you. This week will focus on the HC Davos Dynamo. In honour of Valentine's Day, I'd like to take this opportunity to tell you guys how much I love you (The answer is this much). As I'm sure you know, writing last week's post was not very enjoyable. The Wranglers, quite frankly, have sucked this season. So, I basically had to reiterate over and over again that they suck, and that there are very few silver linings. When I asked you guys to pick a team for me to look at, the vast majority of you responded with cries of “Davos!”. HC Dynamo are good at hockey, and therefore a fun team to write about. For this I thank you guys. <3. This has been a fun week, both for writing about and for watching hockey. Because the Olympics started this week, allowing Canadians to return to our great tradition of watching Team Canada hockey games instead of working: So get ready, you're in for a treat, as I get to say good things about a team this week! Team Overview This week I have an interesting advantage in writing about a team: the season's over! This means I have a nice large sample size to see how Dynamo have performed over the whole season, and make predictions for them going into the playoffs. In season 36 of the VHL, Davos have been by far the best team in the European conference, with a 54-16-2 record, good for 110 points. They've been relentless all year, losing consecutive games only once. Still flying high, they've gone 7-3 in the last 10 games of the season. Dynamo are probably the league's best offensive powerhouse (this is why I like writing about good teams – I get to use words like powerhouse). They lead the league in goals for per game with 3.67 (as always, an NHL comparison: the Chicago Blackhawks lead the NHL with 3.3 goals/game). They also lead the VHL in shots per game, with a whopping 42.17 (the Blackhawks have 34.1. Yeah. Take that in). So I hear this team is pretty good, eh? Advanced Trends In the ten games I looked at, Davos went 8-2, with close losses to the Iron Eagles and Legion (both previously featured on Statistically Advanced! Can I say I told you so about Vasteras, now?). In this stretch, Dynamo had a Corsi For% of 61.7%; their Close CF% and 5v5 CF% coming in at 66.2% and 63.27%, respectively. That's absolutely stratospheric. One point I'd like to stress about this team is their sustainability. Their shooting percentage of 8.7% is actually lower than one would think it'd be. What does that mean? Well, it means that there's actually room for Dynamo to score even more goals, and for the shooting % to rise further toward average. Of course, this wouldn't be a Statistically Advanced post without a screengrab from a chart to compare the NHL to this VHL team, so here's the NHL's top 15 team shooting percentages: As you can see, Davos wouldn't even crack the top half of the league. There are some pretty lucky teams up in that top 15, most notably the Leafs, Avalanche, Lightning and Flyers. I'm not entirely sure what my point here is, actually. Maybe I should stop waking up at 2 in the morning to watch the Olympics. Just take it from me, Davos have a relatively low shooting % and could score even more goals if their luck turned a bit. Adding to that, HC Dynamo have a season PDO of 100.2. That's not terrible, but it is sustainable. For reference, and because I love you guys, I've ranked all the VHL teams in terms of PDO and shooting percentage. Surprisingly, after a full season, there are no teams with a PDO above 102, which could just mean that save percentages and shooting % tend to be lower in the VHL than in most other hockey leagues. Anyway, Davos are out of the top 3 in both categories, which is surprising for such an offensively dominant team: This probably means that Dynamo's strategy mostly consists of firing as many shots at the net as possible. As we can see, it's working! Other Notes HC Dynamo may have lots of offensive power, but I don't think they match up to the Legion in terms of defensive strength. They're third in the league in goals against per game, shots against per game, and penalty kill %. Of course, I'm not trying to say they have a weak blue line, just that this team's success is due much more to scoring a lot of goals than to preventing lots of them. (Firewagon hockey is more fun to watch anyway, right?) One criticism I have of this team is that they do seem to have a bit of a discipline issue. Davos have the third-most penalty minutes per game, with 10.92. Fortunately, they have a relatively solid PK, but this is one concern that the team should look into going forward. When I was looking through the gamesheets, it did seem that they were shorthanded a fair amount. Davos's scoring is lead by superstars Davey Jones, Odin Tordahl and Sergey Brovalenko, who rank fourth to sixth, respectively, in points on the season. In 72 games, Jones has 111 points, Tordahl has 106, and Brovalenko has 104. That's pretty good. Something I noticed is that Davos has more players (3) in the top 10 than any other team, understandably. Also interesting is the fact that Davey Jones, team leader in points, centres the team's second line, between Jarkko Olsen and Thomas Landry. This team does play all its lines the same amount, however this does mean that Jones isn't playing with the team's best players. An interesting strategy. (Jones is also on the second powerplay unit, which does play much less than the first). Prediction for the Playoffs Obviously I can't make a prediction for the rest of the season, as the season is over. So, I'll tell you how I predict the playoffs will go for Dynamo. I hate it when sports magazines and blogs do previews, and don't take any risks. So, I'll make an actual prediction for what Dynamo will do in the playoffs. This team absolutely has enough firepower to make it to the finals. Once they're there, it gets more difficult. If they can solve the penalty problem and tighten up ever so slightly on the blueline, they will win the championship (is that bold enough?). If not, well, they still might, but they'll have a tougher time doing it. I'd like that to happen, because Switzerland is great: I don't know why, but I wrote this post while listening to a playlist of the worst songs of all time. Just thought you might like to know that. Got it from this Wikipedia article. So ends the fifth installment of Statistically Advanced. Next week, I'm a bit conflicted about what to do. Should I do another team, and include their recent playoff games in the statistics? Should I do a team that finished out of the playoffs? Or something else? Let me know! As always, if I have a gaping hole in my post, or some other cock-up, please let me know so I can rectify it next time. With that, I will now bow out: (Hahaha get it? Bow! I'm so funny...)

Hate to say I told you so but... I totally called this in my MS on the Eagles

Uh... sure. Seriously though, this team is awful, but not quite "only wins 6 games" awful

Lol are those your suggestions for next week?

Statistically Advanced – Week Four: Calgary Wranglers Statistically Advanced is a weekly feature which will give an in-depth look at a VHL team, discussing said team's weaknesses and strengths, using fancy "advanced" stats to predict trends. Each week, I'll analyze a different VHL team. Warning: If you hate numbers, this post will likely not be for you. This week will focus on the Calgary Wranglers. Before I begin my usually spiel about all my fancy stats and numbers, I want to address something that was mentioned to me after last week's post. I feel that I should clarify that this series is not supposed to be like a news article, like a lot of other media spots I've seen. Most of my inspiration comes from internet hockey blogs (shameless plugs to downgoesbrown.com and, for silly Leafs fans like me, theleafsnation.com). Thus, my writing style tends to be a lot less formal, and, as was pointed out to me, sometimes leads to some grammatical errors. I beg you, readers, to do me a favour and call me out on my screw-ups. Please. I hate them. Of course, if you've read my previous posts, you'll know that I usually start off with something hockey-related that'll lighten the mood. Today, I'll give you two, because this will likely be the most depressing post I've done. First of all: Sochi. Ha. This is where the Canadian men's hockey team will be living. These men are millionaires, and they're basically kids' summer camp beds. Those sheets are freaking hilarious. I think I used the same ones when I was five! And secondly, I'd like to bring this new webcomic to your attention. Looks like there's a bright future ahead of this good ol' Canadian kid, right Don? Right. So, take a deep breath, and make sure you have some adorable pictures of kittens ready for after you're done reading this. Heeeeere we gooooo! Team Overview To put it lightly, the Calgary Wranglers have... struggled this year. They're currently last in the North American conference, with 13 points (in 61 games, they're 6-54-1). In the 10 games I looked at for this post, they went 2-8-0, with victories over the Riga Reign and the New York Americans. The Wranglers are the worst in all the stats measured on the VHL Pro stats page, except for powerplay % and, unsurprisingly, hits. Calgary have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. But every cloud has a silver lining, right? God, I hope so. Advanced Trends So uh... remember last week, in this post, when I said that one of the Iron Eagles' games was close to being the first game I'd seen with over 100 shot attempts against? Well, about that... I, as always, analyzed 10 games. The Wranglers allowed over 100 shot attempts (or, if you want to sound like a stats geek, Corsi events!) in 7 of them. SEVEN. Christ, that's awful. In one particularly memorable game, they surrendered 189 shot attempts, including over 100 shots on goal. The best part about that game is that (excuse my French) THEY FUCKING WON THAT GAME! In a shootout, against New York. Take that in for a second. The NHL's record for shots by one team in a game is 83, which the Boston Bruins did in 1941 against the Chicago Blackhawks. (Speaking of large amounts of shots in a game, this is where I'd like to give a massive shoutout to Ben Scrivens and his godly 59-save shutout against the Sharks last week. For Leafs fans like me mourning the loss of this kid, just remember the fact that the guy we got in return for him beat up Ryan Miller, and is also probably even sicker that Scrivens, so there's that.) Stop going off on tangents, you say? Well, okay then, but that means I have to keep talking about the god-forsaken Wranglers. Over the 10 games, Calgary had a total CF% of – wait for it – 28.99%. Here's the NHL's 10 worst teams in terms of CF% (Look to the last column). I'll let you guys work this one out for yourselves. 28.99% is not good. To their credit, the Wranglers are slightly better in close and 5v5 situations, with 29.27% and 29.23% CF percentages, respectively. But that's still pretty abysmal. Hey, I found a bright spot (kind of)! The Calgary Wranglers this season have a PDO of 97.7. I've explained PDO several times before, and I'm not going to again, so I'll tell you that 97.7 is terrible. Why is that a bright spot, you ask? Well, a PDO that low (most due to a horrible shooting % of 6.6) actually means that this team may have had pretty awful luck, and that clearer skies could be on the horizon. Of course, that doesn't at all mean that the Wranglers are a playoff team or anything. But I'd like to reassure them that they probably don't have quite as many points as they're capable of. Yay, optimism! Other Notes I'd really like to point out how much of a gem Henrik Larsson is. As it stands, he has 30 goals and 25 assists for a grand total of 55 points on the season. He's the only Wranglers player who even comes close to being a point-per-game player. He's this team's Taylor Hall, or Matt Moulson (kinda). A star on a terrible team. I think if he was in a different situation, playing with players who don't have names like “DAV C”, he'd probably light it up. And the best part? He's 19 years old! (not at all a knock on Hashtag Manning – cough Broncos suck cough – he's got 37 points, feeding Larsson.) This is a great opportunity for me to reiterate my point about how dumb it is to think a team with a lot of hits is a “good, physical team”. The Wranglers average the most hits per game in the entire VHL, with 21.72. Obviously, this doesn't mean that they're doing things like this, but if a team has the puck for, on average, less than 30% of the game, as Calgary's Corsi numbers suggest, then it's a simple assumption to make that the team needs to make a lot of hits, to stop the other team having the puck for 100% of the game. The Wranglers, unfortunately, suck at a lot of things. But one thing they particularly suck hard at is faceoffs. At 33.66%, they have by far the worst faceoff % in the league (the 9th place Americans have 42.2%.). Maybe, just maybe, if the Wranglers could start with the puck more, they could get more shots! Prediction for the Season I think you can work this one out for yourselves. I'm prepared to bet this shiny Canadian loonie I have in my hand here that the Calgary Wranglers will finish this season last in the VHL. I thoroughly apologize to any Wranglers fans reading this. I really don't have much else to say. This team makes me sad, because Calgary's a great city. I want it to have nice things. And so ends the most depressing installment of Statisically Advanced ever. For next week, I'm going to do a new thing! I'm going to ask you, the reader, to help me pick the team I analyze next week (think of it as a sort of reward for putting up with all my bullshit and sticking with me all the way to here). So, tell me. Which team do you want me to do next? I'm thinking of either the Quebec Meute or HC Dynamo, because it's more fun to do good teams. But up to you! As I say every week, please tell me if I fucked something up! I very much appreciate your feedback! This was a pretty long post, and a sad one, so I'll send you off with a gif of the Almighty, Phil “The Phil” Kessel, dominating his smelling salts. Oh, and Andrew Ladd is a robot now, apparently.

Mikael Svensson Forward Points Hits

I feel for the Eagles so much, as a diehard Leafs fan I know what exactly this situation is like firsthand. Also @Smarch, <3 The Office

Statistically Advanced - Week Three: Vasteras Iron Eagles Statistically Advanced is a weekly feature which will give an in-depth look at a VHL team, discussing said team's weaknesses and strengths, using fancy "advanced" stats to predict trends. Each week, I'll analyze a different VHL team. Warning: If you hate numbers, this post will likely not be for you. This week will focus on the Vasteras Iron Eagles. Before y'all get mad at me, yes, I screwed up. There was no installment of Statistically Advanced last week. I didn't think I'd be so busy, but turned out I was out of the house from 6 am to 11 pm every day, leaving me absolutely no time to calculate stats and compile this article. But I'm back now! Here, I'll make it up to you with this adorable little goalie. Anyway, let's get started! I'm not going to explain the stats like I had to last week, if you don't understand, then ask me for clarification and read my first post, which explains what Corsi is. Ed.: I've realized this article is a little bit heavy on bashing the Eagles. My sincere apologies go out to all Eagles fans I've offended. Please don't hurt me. Team Overview The Vasteras Iron Eagles appear to be a decent team, currently sitting 3rd in the European Conference, with a 28-19-4 record after 51 games. Their 60 points give them a nice 8-point cushion over the 4th place Express. However, it looks like this team may be buoyed a little by very strong goaltending (thanks to the lovely Eggly Bagelface) and a decent defensive core. They're struggling to score goals. And, as we all know, it's really hard to win in hockey if you don't score. So what? Are the Iron Eagles going to hang on to their playoff spot? Or will they regress and fall out of the top 3? Advanced Trends As I said last week, it's absolutely impossible for me to calculate Corsi for the entire season. That would be awful and would take weeks. Screw that. So, I use the last 10 games as a sample size to provide us with a rough outline. Obviously, stats like PDO can be calculated for the entire season. In their last 10 games (as of January 30th), the Eagles went 4-6. This stretch included some interesting games, such as their 6-0 washout of the Calgary Wranglers, and, most recently, a thorough 5-2 boning at the hands of the Toronto Legion (note: that game was 1 short of being the first I've seen where a team allows 100 shot attempts against). Okay, I'm gonna throw some numbers at you now, so buckle up. I'll begin with this team's Corsi stats. The Eagles, over our 10-game sample, had a CF% of 39.11%. Sorry, Vasteras, but that's kind of awful. It gets even worse in close situations, as the team had a CF Close% of 32.76%. In only 5 on 5 situations, the team's CF% was 39.13%. In case you still don't understand this stat, this very basically means that the Iron Eagles only possess the puck between 30-40% of a game. Unfortunately, unless you're the Toronto Maple Leafs, you can't win games by doing that. (Just so you know, the NHL's worst Corsi team are the Buffalo Sabres, with a CF% of 41.9%.) Over the 51 games played this season, the Eagles have a PDO of 102.8. This may be the scariest stat in this article. As a stat meant to give a rough estimate of a team's luck, a high PDO tends to mean that a team is due to regress, and not continue whatever success they're currently having. Unfortunately, the Eagles have a high PDO. In fact, this is 0.1 higher than the Legion's PDO I looked at last week. Now, does this mean the Eagles are going to start sucking? Well, not necessarily. But it does mean that they probably are outplaying themselves a little bit. I want to break down that stat a bit, though. PDO is the sum of a team's shooting percentage and its save percentage. The Eagles have a team save percentage of .933. That's extremely good. This team has been largely supported by the strong goaltending of Eggly Bagelface (with a name only a mother could love – wait, is he named after this weird Japanese fashion trend?). In fact, they pretty much seem to rely on him to win games that they really don't deserve to. So basically, sorry Eagles fans, but I highly doubt that this team can continue to win games. Other Notes This Iron Eagles team appears to rely heavily on their top line for scoring. Willem Janssen, Zach Cuff and recent acquisition Keiji Toriyama account for 67% of this team's goals. Two thirds. That's a little worrying. If this team wants to win, they'll really need a bigger offensive contribution from Leitner and Kylrad, as well as from their (solid-in-their-own-end) defensive core. In conjunction with the less-than-sparkling Corsi stats, the Eagles seem to have a problem with getting shots. 24.8 per game has them second-last in the VHL. That's simply not good enough. Obviously, you can't win a hockey game if you don't shoot. “You'll always miss 100% of the shots you don't take” -Wayne Gretzky - Michael Scott. Actually, this team is the Toronto Maple Leafs of the VHL. Terrible Corsi, strong goaltending, high PDO... huh. As for some good news, I found some! This really is a decent defensive team! The Eagles have a rock-solid penalty kill, second in the league with 86.6%. A team goals-against-average of 2.12 is also strong, good enough for 3rd in the league. Really, credit has to be given to Till Lindemann, Mattis Trumbauer and Blake Knight for playing some good shutdown hockey. Prediction for the Season The Eagles are quite a fascinating team. They're winning, and hanging on to a playoff spot, but most of their stats say they shouldn't be. However, it would surprise me if this team continued to win. I would absolutely not be surprised if Vasteras dropped out of third place (sorry). It'll take a much greater contribution from everyone offensively if this team wants to win. I mean, you can't win if you don't score, right? That's it for this week's installment of Statistically Advanced. Next week (and yes, I mean next week), I'll look at the Calgary Wranglers (pretty badass name, I wish they weren't in last). Maybe there's an outstanding reason why they're doing so poorly. This post wasn't as long as the previous one, as I didn't have to explain the stats. So you'd better freaking read all of it. Or else. As always, please tell me if I fucked up, or left out something you wanted me to mention, or said something outrageously bullshit. I leave you now with the most American picture I've seen this week:

Mark Fraser.

Lindros may well have been one of the best were it not for his injuries :/ idk about as good as gretz though

Oh god no let's not have this debate

Also, if anyone doesn't understand something, let me know. I'd be happy to explain!