Statistically Accurate VHLM Rankings

[Grape 535]

For the better part of a month, I have been constructing and updating a statistical analysis of each VHLM team and ranking them accordingly. The tests used are a normal distribution, a T distribution using each team’s data, and another T distribution, but treating the league’s data as another sample. Basically, a bunch of nerd stuff. 

Keeping track of the changes in the rankings in both the data and the league, I feel pretty damn confident that it’s somewhat accurate. Without further adieu, let’s get into the rankings.

 

10. Mississauga Hounds

Mississauga’s forwards and defense ranks at the bottom of the league for every test by a significant margin. In fact, for the normal distribution, they are the ONLY team that had an offense that was a full z-score below the mean (offense average was about 50 TPE below league offense average). On the T test, their offense was TWENTY T-scores below the league mean. They’re gonna remain at the bottom of the league for the rest of the season.

 

9. San Diego Marlins

Based on the normal distribution, San Diego is ranked 9th in the league for both offense and defense; however, on both the T distributions, their defense is slightly higher rated at 7th. Their offense is a real weak spot for the team statistically speaking, with them being over 2 and a half t scores below the league average. Another basement team but definitely not as bad as Mississauga.

 

8. Halifax 21st

Halifax boasts the 8th best offense in the league and the 7th best defense on the normal distribution, while having the 8th best on the T distributions. There isn’t much difference between Halifax and San Diego in the rankings, with their difference being only a few percentage points, but I give Halifax a slight edge. Still a bad team though.

 

7. Ottawa Lynx

Ottawa has the 7th best offense and the 5th best defense. On the normal distribution, their defense is pretty close to being above the league average, but the T distributions show that they’re around 15% below average. Another not good team that won’t go deep in the playoffs (change the M playoff system please 8/10 teams don’t belong in the postseason).

 

6. Miami Marauders

Miami is the first team so far that has something ranked above the league average, with their offense being ranked 5th, being 3% above the average on the normal distribution and 6% on the t distributions. Despite having a positive offense, their defense is absolutely atrocious, with it being ranked 8th on the normal distribution and 9 on the t distributions. Unless they bolster their defense, they’ll remain a pretty weak team.

 

5. Las Vegas Aces

Vegas is rocking with the 6th best offense and defense. Logic would say that’d slot them in at 6th, however Miami’s horrid defense pushes them down and there’s a decent enough difference between the Ottawa and Vegas offense that it gives Vegas an edge, and a much less significant difference between the two teams’ defenses to give either a decent edge. Miami makes it tough to really place either since they’d feasibly be better than Vegas, but I have to give Vegas the edge over Miami and Ottawa.

 

4. Mexico City Kings

Mexico is the first team so far that has both offense and defense ranked above average, with their offense and defense ranked 4th (kinda just speaks to the really piss poor level of parity in the M). There’s somewhat of a gap between the teams below Mexico City, Mexico City, and the teams above Mexico City. They’re definitely a good team, but the top three teams are just too strong for them to surpass, and the teams below them are too bad for them to drop.

 

3. Houston Bulls

Houston rocks the top rated offense on the normal distribution, 2nd on the t distribution, and the 3rd ranked defense. This team has been an absolute unit out of the gate and for a while it was really between them and Philadelphia for the top. I mean, their offense is only a sliver past a percent short of hitting 100% CI for offense (translation: basically god level). All they need is a little more help on the blue line and they’ll be near unstoppable.

 

2. Philadelphia Reapers

Philadelphia started out this season as being the best in all categories and was on top of the league. As of now, they have the 2nd ranked offense on the normal distribution, 3rd on the t distribution, and a defense ranked at 2nd on all distributions. This team has been on a heater right out of the gate and has continued to play solid and get good growth from their players. Definitely a team to watch going down the stretch

 

1. Saskatoon Wild

This team has really surprised me. While I’m updating my stats, they’ve just kept climbing. I believe they started the season with the 5th ranked offense and a pretty poorly ranked defense as well. As of now, however, on the normal distribution, their offense ranks 3rd, but on the t distribution, they have the number 1 rated offense. They also boast the best defense in the league as well. This team has been on a tear lately and has been climbing in the standings. Their defense is 5% better than Philadelphia’s, and has a CI of over 99%, less than a percent towards 100% (fun fact: literally impossible, but rounding). This is definitely the best team in the league as of now, and if all things keep trending in the right direction, they should be at the top of the league by the end of the year.

 

The big issue with the data gathered is, since it’s based on player TPE, and people update whenever they feel like updating, the numbers keep changing, so the rankings keep changing. Defense overall has been bouncing around, with the teams being above average fluctuating between 4 and 5 pretty much every day. Because of that, I’ll try and do updates based on the statistics, although over time, these teams have begun to solidify their positions so not much change should be seen.

 

(1028 words)

[Grape 535]

claiming again for week ending in 2/27

Edited February 28, 2022 by Grape