VHL Playoffs Preview: Wild Card and Conference Semi-Finals

[CowboyinAmerica 2,757]

 

Early Round VHL Playoff Preview for S84

 

It’s been a while since the Helsinki Titans were last in the playoffs – Booberry’s entire career so far, as a matter of fact. But as the Titans have clinched the two seed in Europe, my excitement for this year’s playoffs has revived in turn. Partially, that may be because the amount of parity that the VHL experienced this season: Outside of one notable Russian exception, each of the other nine VHL playoff teams finished somewhere between 101 and 83 points. There’s a lot of upset potential here to be had.

 

Naturally, that means it’s a fool’s errand to do any sort of prediction for these playoffs. Luckily, both because I like TPE and also because I’m busy for much of August, I’m a fool. Here’s one man’s take at how each of the Wild Card series, 2/3 matchups, and even potential 1 seed first round matchups could break down in each conference.

 

Wild Card

 

(4)  Toronto Legion vs. (5)  Calgary Wranglers

 

Season Series: 3-2 Calgary, with one of those Calgary wins coming in a shootout. So effectively, even.

 

Series at a Glance: Toronto finished one point better in the standings, but Calgary actually finished with a better goal differential at +21 versus Toronto’s +9. Partially, that’s due to the Legion’s penchant for close games: their 192 goals for ranked fifth in the conference but their 183 goals allowed ranked third, leading to a number of overtime affairs (and 9 OT losses). Toronto is led by recent Moscow expat Paul Atriedes, who finished top ten in both goals and points, while Calgary likes to play out of the back with two defensemen (Erlantz Jokinen and Asher Reinhart) in the league’s top seven in points at that position.

 

If Toronto Wins: They figured out how to win those tight games. Although the Legion were 2-5 in games decided in the overtime period, they were 8-4 in games decided in shootouts. Oskar Lindburgh will naturally be a big key then – his experience and skill level would seem to give Toronto an edge in any shooutout versus the younger Calgary goalie Ben Dahl.

 

If Calgary Wins: They took advantage of the power play. Toronto is third in the VHL with most penalty minutes this past season, at 779. However, Calgary’s power play unit sat next-to-last in the VHL with a 14% power play conversion rate. They’ll need to take more advantage of those free chances to break open games and avoid the tight matchups that Toronto loves to force.

 

Prediction: Toronto 3-2. Lindbergh steals at least one tight game where Toronto gets outshot, possibly in an OT.

 

(4)  Riga Reign vs. (5)  HC Davos Dynamo

 

Season Series: 3-2 Riga

 

Series at a Glance: Riga’s been on an absolute tear since acquiring Jerome Reinhart and Robert Wilk at the deadline, going on separate seven and four game winning streaks near the end of the season to put some pressure on Helsinki and Warsaw. But that’s not to say the Dynamo have been slouches down the stretch, picking up wins against D.C. and Helsinki of their own in the season’s dying days. Both of these teams have seemed relatively evenly matched, including in their matchups against each other – four of the five games in this series had two goal margins or less. Riga is led by its forward corps, as Anze Miklavz and Alex Johnston both finished top ten in the league in points. Davos, meanwhile, feasted on the power play – they had three different players with double digit power play goals.

 

If Riga Wins: The first line continues to go hard. Riga’s 233 goals scored on the season ranks fourth in the entire VHL, behind just Moscow, Helsinki and D.C. Miklavz and Johnston are a big portion of that, to be sure, but so is Biggie Cheese, who ranked third among defensemen with 81 points, as well as the newly acquired Reinhart, who is putting up about a point per game in Riga. It’s been 35 games since Riga scored less than two goals in a game, and I’m not sure Davos has the firepower to keep up with that.

 

If Davos Wins: Davos was able to tamp down that firepower. It’s odd that I haven’t mentioned David Davis’s name once so far, but that’s because he had a down season (for the new goalie standard at least) in coming over from Prague last offseason. However, he was able to put up a .923 save percentage and two shutouts in last year’s playoffs for the Phantoms, and has the raw skills to take over a series.

 

Prediction: Riga 3-1. Detroit and Chara are great, but without Davis stepping up, it’ll be tough to compete with Riga’s recent run of form.

 

Conference Semifinals

 

(2)  Seattle Bears vs. (3)  Chicago Phoenix

 

Season Series: 4-1 Seattle, with the win on the final day of the season coming in a shootout.

 

Series at a Glance: This one’s a really interesting matchup to me considering the trajectories of the two teams. Some expected the Bears to fall off hard this season, following the retirement of goalie Em Em Flex and the cap crunch that saw stars like Vinny Detroit shipped out the door. However, as Seattle has tended to do in recent seasons, they had a next man up with Jonathan Ori’s passing-centric center play, and Dusty Wilson performed admirably in his rookie season with 40 wins and a .924 save percentage. The Phoenix, meanwhile, may be reaching the playoffs for the second straight season, but this would arguably be their first trip as a true contender since their rebuild. Baby Bob’s 49 goals and 100 points led the way, but don’t sleep on Bo Johansson’s 64 points from the blue line.

 

If Seattle Wins: The special teams gets it done. Seattle sits second in the VHL in both power play (22%) and penalty kill (88%) rates, indicating strong play on both sides of the coin. However, Chicago is near the bottom of both categories, sitting 13th in power play and 15th in penalty kill. If this series gets a ref with an itchy penalty trigger, that massively favors Seattle.

 

If Chicago Wins: We saw some excellent passing and playmaking, especially from the first line. It’s no surprise that Baby Bob tied for the league lead with three hat tricks, but his 51 assists leave him perhaps underrated as a playmaker as well. Then, of course, Bo Johansson finished seventh in the entire league in assists. It was their combination that allowed Chicago to take their one win over Seattle – both players had 4 assists in the game and let their linemates feast.

 

Prediction: Seattle 4-1. Chicago’s young guns are going to have their day, but Seattle’s overall firepower is too much for now.

 

(1)  D.C. Dragons vs. Winner of Toronto/Calgary

 

Season Series: D.C. over Toronto 4-2, D.C. over Calgary 4-1

 

Series at a Glance: Many people saw D.C. as making the leap to become the clear North American favorite entering the season, and they’ve rewarded that belief thus far. Not only was D.C. one of two teams in the VHL to top 100 points, but they far outpaced their North American competitors in goal differential as well, sitting +39 goals better than their closest rival (Seattle). Newcomer Duncan Idaho got a lot of the headlines, leading the league in points (122) and finishing second in goals (52). But it was returning players that really took the leap for D.C. this season, like Tui Sova (first in VHL with 77 assists), Poopy Peepants (sixth in VHL with 64 assists), and goalie Bubbles Utonium (first in VHL with 11 shutouts).

 

If D.C. Wins: The defense and goaltending never even let the other team have a chance. The Dragons allowed 2137 total shots against them this season, the fewest amount in the league by 70 more than any other team. Add in Utonium’s penchant for shutouts and .928 overall save percentage, and the Dragons often only needed to score 3 or so goals to take home the win. Idaho can sometimes take on that job by himself.

 

If Toronto/Calgary Wins: Then Utonium won’t have been ready for the big stage. In D.C.’s quick three game exit last season, Utonium had a .891 save percentage and 3.31 GAA over the three losses. Particularly against a team like Toronto, which has Lindbergh in net and has played its fair share of OT and SO games, getting into a rock fight may even the playing field more than D.C. would want.

 

Prediction: D.C. 4-2. I think Toronto in particular could steal a few games in a low-scoring series, but ultimately, D.C.’s talent would win out.

 

(2)  Helsinki Titans vs. (3)  Warsaw Predators

 

Season Series: 3-2 Helsinki

 

Series at a Glance: Granted I may be a bit biased on the matter, but I think this could be the most entertaining series of the first two rounds. Both teams are obviously evenly-matched, finishing with a near even season series and both sitting at 96 points in the standings. They’re also interesting because of their differing styles of play: Helsinki’s relied on star power with Nico Pearce (first in the VHL in goals) and Nezuko (ninth in forward points) up front with Xavier Booberry in net. Warsaw, meanwhile, has adopted more of a team approach, particularly with playing out of the blue line - Hari Singh Nalwa’s 72 points for a defenseman was the team’s only contribution to a positional top 10 list. However, eight different Warsaw players finished with between 60 and 83 points on the season.

 

If Helsinki Wins: The forward play will be there, but the Titans need Xavier Booberry to play to last season’s Most Outstanding Player standard. For most of the games against Warsaw this season, he did: Booberry allowed Warsaw two or fewer goals in four of their five contests (including a 2-1 loss). However, in the most recent game, Warsaw scored six goals. If Booberry does more of the former than the latter, it may be tough for Warsaw’s Wumbo to keep pace.

 

If Warsaw Wins: Shots, shots, shots. While Helsinki and Warsaw were near even in the amount of shots against this season, the Predators had a clear advantage putting the puck on net, with a second-best in the VHL 3108 shots put up on the season. It’s not a perfect measure of who’s going to win, but it’s often predictive. Also, of note: The Predators have played a lot of OT and shootout games this season, tying Toronto for the most SO wins in the league with 8, which often comes into play in the playoffs.

 

Prediction: Helsinki 4-3. I couldn’t pick myself to lose, right?

 

(1)  Moscow Menace vs. Winner of Riga/Davos

 

Season Series: Moscow and Riga tied 3-3, Moscow 4-1 over Davos

 

Series at a Glance: For all of the handwringing I’ve done about how all of these teams are close in the standings and anything could happen, Moscow may be the one exception to that. The Menace finished the season with 114 points, 13 points clear of any other VHL contender, and their +113 goal differential slams everybody else as well. But, it’s easy to do that when you have most goals for and the least goals against of any team in the league. Goalie Papa Emeritus is the betting line favorite for MVP this season, with an absurd .939 save percentage, but 40 goal scorers Henri le Massif and The Seabasstard, plus long-time defenseman Hard Markinson and his 106 points, show there’s talent all over the roster. Still, anything can happen – just look at the tied season series with Riga.

 

If Moscow Wins: The overall talent is a bit too much to deal with. This is a team that has come oh-so-close so many times in the finals, but the flip side of going to so many finals appearances is that they always win the early rounds. Emeritus himself is proof of that, going .923, .924 then .933 save percentages over the last three seasons. There isn’t much reason to believe a collapse is coming here.

 

If Riga/Davos Win: But if a collapse is to come, it’s probably because a series of close games didn’t break their way. Just look at that Riga season series: You have an OT win, a one goal win, and a three goal outlier. Moscow certainly isn’t infallible in those close games; they were 0-2 in OT this season, and 4-4 in shootouts. If Riga or Davos could keep it close early, anything can happen from there.

 

Prediction: Moscow 4-2. I don’t think Moscow is going through the playoffs without a real fight, but I don’t think it happens here. They’ve just got their lines and roster too finely tuned.

[CowboyinAmerica 2,757]

2000+ words, for the weeks ending 8/7, 8/14, 8/21 and 8/28

[CowboyinAmerica 2,757]

Claim 3

[CowboyinAmerica 2,757]

Claim 4