Next Season's Rollover Week Will Be Weird

[CowboyinAmerica 2,911]

 

The Short-Term Implications of Nine-Season Careers

 

It may seem weird, but Rollover Week is always one of my favorite times in the VHL calendar. It brings a spurt of energy to the long stretch of the end of the season, with recreating members coming up with all new ideas and becoming excited for their next player. It shakes things up in the VHLM as well (hell, McAllister won me a VHLM Playoff MVP as a deadline recreate) and provides a glimpse into what the future of the VHL might be.

 

But this season’s Rollover Week is extra-special for one big reason: There isn’t going to be a real Rollover Week next season.

 

That’s because with the move to nine-season careers, there will be a gap of one season between when S79s and S80s will be forced to retire. Sure, there may be some players that decide to retire early, or a crop of first generation players that really reinforce the pool. But I think there are good odds that we’ll see some of the following go into effect without a normal Rollover Week next season:

 

A Weaker S89 Draft: With the common cycle of recreating players being the “stars” of the draft in 1.5 season’s time, we’re able to see how strong a draft will be far ahead of time and have VHL teams make moves accordingly. But if there aren’t forced retirements next offseason, the S89 Draft will be the one that’s truly affected. Smart GMs might have planning for this probability already, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see those picks moved at a lower price in upcoming trades.

 

A Less Robust S89 VHLM: This goes part and parcel with the above, but there’s reason to believe that the depth won’t be there in S89. Although S79 has some players likely recreating this week, that crop is also more likely to be playing in the VHLE (or beyond) their first season after the draft. The result may actually mean that S89 VHLM Draft picks mean more – because earners able to reach the earning cap quickly will be highly sought after, and individual players will be able to change the balance of the league.

 

The S88 VHL Salary Cap Will Be Hell: We’re due for a perfect storm of extremely high TPAs across the board next season: a whole crop of players not retiring, the shift into later deprecation starts (for those who did at least one VHLE season) in full effect for all active players, and the new depreciation percentages not starting until after this season. I think we’re going to see some really good players as surprise salary cap casualties next offseason, particularly at positions where easy replacements can be found – it was certainly in the back of my mind when I re-upped Booberry with Davos for the rest of my career. I really hope the BOG is thinking of a cap bump (either temporary or permanent), but I'm not up on those conversations.

 

Some Ultra-Competitive VHL Seasons Coming: But with the above, an extremely tight salary cap also means that we’re likely to see a season with a lot of parity as well. I count 26 non-S79 players at or above 1000 TPA at the time of this writing, and while some may be hit with bad depreciation, I’m going to guess that many will be able to bank or save for depreciation fighters to stay above that mark. Add in the players that will get to that point, and we’re likely going to see multiple 1000 TPA players on every team over the next two seasons until players start to retire off once again.

 

[Alex 3,248]

6 hours ago, CowboyinAmerica said:

The S88 VHL Salary Cap Will Be Hell: We’re due for a perfect storm of extremely high TPAs across the board next season: a whole crop of players not retiring, the shift into later deprecation starts (for those who did at least one VHLE season) in full effect for all active players, and the new depreciation percentages not starting until after this season. I think we’re going to see some really good players as surprise salary cap casualties next offseason, particularly at positions where easy replacements can be found – it was certainly in the back of my mind when I re-upped Booberry with Davos for the rest of my career. I really hope the BOG is thinking of a cap bump (either temporary or permanent), but I'm not up on those conversations.

I've been tracking the average cap hit (by team) for a while now and it has been steadily climbing each season, next season should be an interesting one.

[Spartan 4,531]

6 hours ago, CowboyinAmerica said:

a whole crop of players not retiring, the shift into later deprecation starts (for those who did at least one VHLE season) in full effect for all active players, and the new depreciation percentages not starting until after this season

I'm fairly sure it'd be occurring before that season, unless I'm misunderstanding the wording. S88 depreciation is S87 into S88.

[Beketov 9,101]

7 hours ago, Spartan said:

I'm fairly sure it'd be occurring before that season, unless I'm misunderstanding the wording. S88 depreciation is S87 into S88.

^
 

We have 1 more season with the low numbers, when the depreciation button is hit this off season. After that they’ll go up.