Sample Size

[der meister 2,950]

              Sample size is always an important piece of information when investigating statistical models. We’ve all heard things in commercials like, “Four out of five dentists agree,” but did the company actually only ask five dentists, or did they ask five hundred, and four hundred agreed? Political polls are also notorious for using incredibly small sample sizes to make it look like the general public is leaning one way or another on an issue.

 

              I set this expectation on sample size today because I’d like to briefly examine the individual statistics of one Ryuji Sakamoto, a true journeyman defenseman in the VHL, currently with the D.C. Dragons. In four games with the Dragons (again, small sample size), Sakamoto leads the team in scoring with 2 goals and 5 assists, with both of those goals coming on the powerplay. These 7 points are good enough to place him in a many-way tie for fourth in the league. Amongst those he is tied with is The Board Game Clue on Skates, a defenseman for the London United. Sakamoto and Clue are tied for the league lead in defensive scoring, though Clue has only played 3 games for the United so far. Sakamoto is also tied for fifth in hits in the league, with 16. Teammate and fellow newcomer to the Dragons, Jason, is third with 18 hits.

 

              Perhaps most surprisingly, Sakamoto has only 2 minutes in penalties so far. To put it another way, he’s averaging 30 seconds of time in the box this season, versus his over 2 minutes a game in the box last season in Warsaw. A sign of maturity? Perhaps, though I wouldn’t put money on it.

 

              As a team, the Dragons are in the bottom half of the North American standings, though it’s far too early to make any projections. The Seattle Bears, for instance, are the conference cellar dwellers with just one win and five goals in three games, while the Los Angeles Stars have three wins in three games with an average of four goals a game. Would it really surprise anyone to see Seattle at or near the top of the North American standings come season’s end? Probably not. Again, sample size is key.

 

               Finally, what does Sakamoto think of his sudden offensive success? “I dunno man,” he replied when I asked him, punctuating the confusion with a boyish raking of his hair with his hand. “I’m not playing any different than I have before. Maybe it’s just some good luck for me for once. But hey, you gotta check out this vid I found on YouTube the other day!”

 

               A 10 minute compilation of fainting goats later, I find myself wondering if Sakamoto really understands just how noteworthy his start to the season has been. While I don’t expect him to continue such a torrid pace, it is at least mildly amusing to realize that Sakamoto is on pace for 126 points – and 36 goals. Both would, quite obviously, be career highs by a long shot. Ultimately I expect him to finish in the 50 to 60 point range, a familiar place for him. Even so, it’s fun to note that he has the same amount of points this season in four games as he did in 30 games with the Helsinki Titans just two short years ago.

 

 

 

The boy might be a man, but in many ways, he's still a boy.

[FrostBeard 1,984]

I don't like your prediction. 

[der meister 2,950]

9 hours ago, FrostBeard said:

I don't like your prediction. 

 

Me either. Take it up with the Unnamed Journalist who wrote the piece.

[FrostBeard 1,984]

20 minutes ago, der meister said:

 

Me either. Take it up with the Unnamed Journalist who wrote the piece.

When I see him on the street, I am hitting his face with a brick. Sakamoto is the king we deserve. 

[der meister 2,950]

On 8/26/2023 at 12:10 PM, FrostBeard said:

When I see him on the street, I am hitting his face with a brick. Sakamoto is the king we deserve. 

 

Pace is even higher at the moment. O.o

[Daniel Janser 1,999]

13 hours ago, der meister said:

 

Pace is even higher at the moment. O.o

I should have picked Sakamoto in the VHLF

[der meister 2,950]

1 hour ago, Daniel Janser said:

I should have picked Sakamoto in the VHLF

 

Same