Are goalies broken?

[Victor 10,949]

Are goalies broken?

A momentous shift in the VHL took place in S83 when all skaters' builds were completely revamped for the first time in league history. This was done to counter the abuse of the 99 scoring / 40 passing meta made infamous by the Vancouver Wolves threepeat of S80-S82 but by that point prevalent across the whole league, evidenced by outrageous shot totals, dwindling goaltending performance, and rookie seasons consistently coming close to breaking the all-time records. The scoring-first mentality wasn't in itself anything new for the VHL – Scotty Campbell knew it, Evgeni Fyodorov in S21 VHLM knew it, and everyone who blew up in S62 (see Podrick Cast, Matt Thompson) knew it too. However, when individual preferences became institutionalised and player builds were exclusively dictated by GMs, a solution was needed and so far seems to have addressed the major issues while keeping this current era comparable to all those that came before it.

 

Except maybe one position.

 

Goalies were not touched by the player build revamp for the primary reasons of 1) There is no scoring/passing meta for goalies and 2) I am not convinced that 90+ seasons in anyone still knows for sure what the absolute best goalie build is. However, whilst a welcome respite for goaltenders shelled by the Metawolves and copycat franchises, there is clearly now an advantage to goalies starting at a higher level than skaters and needing less TPE to progress through their attributes. Whilst there hasn't necessarily been a knock-on effect on the numbers we see from the top scorers in the VHL or the scorelines in specific games, there is nevertheless an interesting trend when it comes to save percentage, often the metric we attach the most importance to in the league.

 

The headline figures

• 6 goalies since S83 have had one of the best 21 single season save percentages
• Papa Emeritus - .939 in S84 - 7th best season of all-time
• .938 achieved in both S90 and S91 (Lachlan Summers and Joel Castle)
• .937 achieved in both S89 and S91 (Clueless Wallob and Jesse Teno)

 

Such figures have not been seen since the 50s, just before contraction, when league disparity was at its highest and several top goalies were able to put all-time great numbers. The only previous comparable era was S7-S11 – the perfect storm of low TPE, scoring-orientated forwards putting up a lot of shots on goalies just about good enough to repel most of them. Whilst Anton Nygard's unbelievable .949 mark from S9 apparently remains out of reach, it seems only a matter of time someone reaches the .940 mark, a feat only achieved six times (by four goalies) in VHL history.

 

Of course, there's nothing inherently wrong with long-standing records being challenged, especially when we have many, among forwards in particular, that are probably untouchable. The question though is whether this save percentage boost is genuine evidence of all-time greats or whether circumstances and unfair advantages are skewing the current generation's stats like poor quality of opposition did for those who peaked in the 50s.

 

Career stats

• 6 goalies have retired since S87 with a career save % of .925 or higher – all good for the top 20 of all-time
• 5 of those (Augustus Kennedy, Alexander Minion, Boris Tsezar, Bubbles Utonium, Dusty Wilson) have no shot at the Hall of Fame, with Xavier Booberry inducted straight away
• All 4 goalies mentioned above, as well as other active goaltenders, are on course to join the club
• Summers' and Teno's current .932 and .929 marks, respectively, would be the best two career save percentages of all time should they maintain (excluding career backup Edwin Threencarnacion)

 

On the face of it, this looks like an unprecedented period of goaltending excellence but those Hall of Fame numbers in particular tell a different story. Historically a .925 mark (and even lower) was a good indicator of a Hall of Famer but this has clearly moved due to the sheer quantity of netminders hitting that level, a classic case of quantity over quality (no offence intended to the various goalies mentioned).

 

The flipside is that some of the old names can also be seen as era-dependent. The leading names of Alex Gegeny and Anton Nygard come from the aforementioned S7-S11 era, as does Benoit Devereux, while Greg Clegane and Apollo Skye both played some or all of their careers in that late original 10-team era. Undoubtedly though these players rose as the cream of their crop, as opposed to reflecting the baseline of their generation.

 

The S7-S11 comparison is interesting in that while the best goalies clearly benefited from facing more shots than before or after, this wasn't at the expense of the top scorers. League leaders in that 5-season period hit at least 128 points, with Kevin Brooks (S10) and Mike Szatkowski (S8) both cracking the 150-point mark. Only three players have exceeded 120 points at all since S83, and none as goalies seem to have turned the screw in S89-S91. The ancient comparable era was evidently a perfect storm of great forwards and great goalies going head to head, while the change in player builds in the 80s has meant all the benefits are flowing to the goaltenders.

 

The counterpoints

The save percentage explosion does however seem to be just that with no knock-on effects on other goalie stats. GAA records haven't been approached since the peak disparity of the 50s and the death of meta has normalised season-to-season stats if anything else – goalies are no longer peppered by shooting-crazed forwards, but anything below 2.00 remains a rare, but attainable and well-regarded achievement. It's a similar story with shutouts, a goalie getting into double digits is a great season these days, a long way away from the old records of 20+ shutouts a season. Therefore while we now have to sift through a lot more goalies with what seem like all-time great save percentage numbers, it is not a particularly difficult task to separate the generation's best from those riding the waves of save % inflation.

 

Finally, we can't discount the fact that the duo of Summers and Teno may well be all-timers. Putting aside the probably inflated save percentages, they also have a career GAA of 2.23 and 2.39 which means if they retired today they'd have the best mark since Kallis Kriketers hung up his skates back in S70. There's probably more that can be done to increase scoring without completely undermining the goalies (the logic being that we should be catering to the majority of the VHL population) but equally goaltenders were put through a difficult few seasons during the meta era and are certainly enjoying their return to prominence. Just don't be surprised if you seem to have smashed an old Hall of Famer's career numbers out of the water but don't even get a sniff of the HOF yourself – context always matters.

[jacobcarson877 2,541]

@aimkin@kirbithan LEGENDS

[Daniel Janser 2,184]

ART VANDELAY

[Scurvy 1,495]

Review:  Great article for one that shows your vast historical knowledge and a very unique subject.  I really love articles that cover this lore and history of the league and the greats that played then and now. The history of the league is something that captures my attention and I am sure it does others as well. You clearly did some very niche research showing stats and comparisons to those in the league now.  I only got to play one and a half seasons under the old system before the Hybrid change so it's interesting to me to see the comparison in skaters but never thought to look at goalies until now.  Only think I would have like would be a picture since I am simple. Thank you!!!   8/10

[Gustav 6,430]

10 hours ago, Victor said:

Just don't be surprised if you seem to have smashed an old Hall of Famer's career numbers out of the water but don't even get a sniff of the HOF yourself – context always matters.

Stop trying to discredit Vandelay’s HoNB before I even write it smh

 

It is fairly obvious that goalers are a little too good, but something I find interesting is that this happened at the same time that scoring numbers are (I think) still pretty reasonable—not up to where they were in the good old days, of course, but we’re not struggling to end up with 100-point scorers like we were for a bit in the late S60s-early 70s. 
 

But yeah, goalers should be nerfed a bit. Even putting aside any preference for what we want numbers to look like, I feel that the position has lost a bit of parity that could be regained with an adjustment. 

[JCarson 730]

Article review:  I like the topic this article addresses but I think it may miss one discussion point.  That being with the change in the stat structure for skaters is it causing a more defensive style of game to be played.  Is the overall increase in goaltender performance solely the result of a newly created disparity between goalies and skaters or is it a combination of factors that incudes a change in how the overall game is played.  To suggest a small group of goalies have had a series of good seasons must conclude that we need to change the goaltender build metrics doesn't create a statistical proof of a needed change in my opinion.  Should it be something that is monitored, yes.  Should we make changes at this time, no.

 

Great article, unique conversation.  I give this a 9/10

[Victor 10,949]

Week 2 of 2