Checking in on my predictions halfway through the season

[scoop 3,255]

While my VHFL and Super Coach results the past few seasons have been great, my predictions have not gone as well. Over the past three seasons, I earned a total of 4 TPE from predictions. Halfway through Season 93, I think that my picks are looking a bit better than they have recently. Here is a breakdown of how I feel about my predictions for the current season are looking.

 

Looking good

Alexander Beketov Trophy: Skor McFleury
Kevin Brooks Trophy: Nikolas Kauppi
Sterling Labatte Trophy: Skor McFleury
Jake Wylde Trophy: Skor McFleury

 

Although Skor McFleury and Nikolas Kauppi do both lead by four in assists and goals, respectively, I suppose it would still be wiser to bet on the field. However, you can't predict the field, so I'm going to say these two predictions are looking good, as they have to be considered favorites based on how things have gone so far. My trust in McFleury this season is looking like it could pay off. The Labatte Trophy going to Skor is easily the most sure thing right now, with the Wylde just behind it in likelihood.

 

Definitely a chance
Devon Marlow-Marta Trophy: Toronto Legion
Terence Fong Trophy: Moscow Menace
Scotty Campbell Trophy: Skor McFleury
Brett Slobodzian Trophy: Skor McFleury
Alexander Valiq Trophy: Skor McFleury

 

Again, it's probably safer to bet on the field when it comes to winning the Conference Championships, especially with the way we've seen the playoffs go recently, but my two picks are both in first place in their respective conferences right now. For this trio of McFleury predictions, I am less confident, particularly because McFleury does not score a lot of goals. Don't get me wrong, 13 goals by a defender at this point is pretty good, but Mark Calaway has 17, and only four fewer points. As for MVP and Most Outstanding, that's going to be a hard one to judge. I think the overall numbers that McFleury is putting up are special, when you consider it all, but these awards historically do not go to defenders very often. I think McFleury will have a better case than any that we've seen in a while, and probably any that we will see in the near future as well, but I still hesitate to say he's the favorite to get the votes, even if he'd get my votes right now.

 

Possible, but not likely

Continental Cup: New York Americans
Victory Cup: Malmo Nighthawks
Daisuke Kanou Trophy: Jacob Stone
Greg Clegane Trophy: Jesse Teno
Scott Boulet Trophy: Larry Abass Jr

 

I wouldn't say that any team is likely to win the Continental Cup; the playoffs are too unpredictable. But New York will be in the playoffs, so it's possible. Malmo currently has the fourth best record, seven points behind first place with a game in hand. A repeat of the Victory Cup is possible, but there is just too much competition to put it any higher. Larry Abass Jr.'s stats are better than the leaderboards show, because he has played on multiple teams this season, but I don't think the offensive numbers will be good enough to compete with someone like John Jameson, even if Abass were to end the season with something like 300 hits compared to 240. Teno is currently third in GAA, but there is quite a gap between them and first. As for Jacob Stone winning the Kanou Trophy, that one is kind of out of place in this category, because there is not much of a basis on which to judge the possibility of it happening, but it's technically possible, and I didn't feel like putting it in it's own spot. If Malmo does win the Continental Cup, you have to think that their best player might stand a chance at the award.

 

No shot
Dustin Funk Trophy: Gustav Mattias
Mike Szatkowski Trophy: Mac Atlas

Aidan Shaw Trophy: Merome Dilson
David Knight Trophy: Vancouver Wolves
Christian Stolzschweiger Trophy: Riley Martin

 

Spanish Moon Moth could probably have zero more points over the remainder of the season and still be a better candidate for Most Improved than Gustav Mattias, so I feel comfortable saying I got this one wrong. Mac Atlas is currently 22nd in points, and while they certainly could improve their ranking, they there's too much of a gap and too many other competitors to say there's a chance. There are three goalies with at least a 0.010 lead in save percentage over Merome Dilson. Maybe Riley Martin has a bit of a chance, if people ahead of them slump and they pick it up, but they are behind a lot of players in rookie scoring and are less of a two-way player than most of them. This is the one out of these five that I think could maybe be moved up in likelihood, especially with how volatile rookie stats can be, but Vancouver does not score enough for me to think Martin can catch up even if they start getting more involved. As for Frank Chadwick winning the Knight Trophy, I think the fact that Vancouver is currently sitting outside of a playoff spot after they were buyers in the off-season will not bode well with the voters. It's hard to know how others judge this award, but I no longer thing Chadwick has a shot.