A Longwinded Failed Experiment

[Thunder 1,166]

If you should decide to read this entire media spot, it’s entirely up to you to determine if there is any validity to the outcome.  I cannot be responsible for any screw up on my calculations, data collection, or even on the guidance I received during the gathering and computations to complete this report.

 

With that disclaimer out of the way, I first need to thank  @ucyXpher, @CowboyinAmerica, and @Steve, for giving me permission to dig into their player and see if I can come up with something interesting to determine what is making them successful in the VHL.  I also need to thank @Scurvy and @Smarch.  I evaluated their players as well, even though I did not let them know I included them in this report.  Just to be fair to Scurvy and Smarch, I included Bollos de Trueno in here as well.

 

All data was collected from the start of the season through games completed on November 1st.  I processed all the information with the premise that certain attributes meant more to the success of the player than other attributes, thus I placed more emphasis on those specific attributes.  I also came into this experiment with the thought that the difference in TPE between certain attributes affect the player also.  With that being said, I can safely say that I have not cracked the code and I have not figured out what the best player build is.  There are way too many variables, like other players, opponents, and team morale.  Team morale is one that kept messing with my calculations because the morale changed for reasons I cannot figure out.  An example is one day Riga is playing at a morale of 61 and the next day its at a 53, but won both games the previous day, and to make matters worse, they won at 53 to a team with 64 team morale.

 

Now let me explain what I did first.  I went through every game played focusing on data that I could not gather easily; for example, hits taken losing the puck, maintaining control of the puck, rebound shots, assists from rebounds, being involved in the goal but not getting credit for an assist.  I also included shots right after face offs.  These numbers were isolated to the individual player and helped with the analysis of each game to determine a pattern.  In addition, I used their current TPE and changes to TPE to determine what affect there might have been on the player following the changes.  The game outcome was not a factor with coming up with the assigned variable number for probability factors.  I came up with a variable number based on a series of computations of the attributes and use that variable number to help determine consistency, or I should say to justify my reasoning for guessing the consistency and potential results.  Once again, I failed and did not crack the code!

 

Scurvy, before you flip me shit about having too much time on my hands and all that crap, just know that I gave up reading at night so I could collect the data and ended out going to bed with all these F-ing numbers in my head working out the information to try to validate the outcomes.  While you were role playing Ninefingers getting it on with Ferro, I was doing something productive.

 

 

Lucy Leitner

 

Starting with Lucy Leitner, Riga Reign defenseman, she’s in her third season with the Reign.  Lucy began the season on fire.  She racked up points in 11 of the first 15 games, and through 33 games she has gotten at least one point in 25 games.  She has had 8 multi-point games in this period and can easily be described as dependable.  She doesn’t shoot as much as you’d expect, only one double digit game.  Her defensive game is admirable as she has no issues blocking shots and hitting opponents.  These numbers aren’t record breaking but they are dependable.

 

As far as scoring goals, Lucy scored multiple goals from deflections and rebounds, and of her 8 goals, 4 of them have been on the power play.  She seems to get involved more in power plays as she also has 4 assists with a team advantage.  Her scoring TPE started the season at 81, and she bumped it up to 82 recently.  It didn’t really change much, even though her puck handling and skating started out at 90 and 89 respectively, until she bumped up puck handling to 92 and skating to 90.

 

Lucy’s passing attribute has remained at 64 throughout the season, but her defense started at 92 until she bumped it up to 93; however, her strength is now at 78, but still lower than the other 5 players I looked into.  This combination of TPE amongst passing, defense, puck handling, skating, scoring, and strength may be keeping her from losing the puck when she is hit.  She is currently at a .56 hit to being hit ratio, even with a 67 checking.  Lucy tends to be one player behind in the passing process for assists.  If her teammates would shoot from her passes, this would change!!

 

Lucy Leitner is at .80 points per 20 minutes of play.  Her puck handling/skating score is 1.02, which is consistent with the other 5 players.  Her defense/passing score is 1.45, which is higher in comparison.  She has a 70.31 score for skating/(scoring/passing), and a .95 score for strength/scoring.  Her potential is at 50, which is a constant, morale is 55, experience is at 61, and her overall rating is 77, giving her a variable number of 3.86.  This number should go down as Lucy applies TPE throughout the remainder of the season.

 

Based on the overall analysis I predict Lucy to score 1 goal and 10 assists in the next 10 games.  Also going to say she’s gonna light it up in the play offs, especially if that variable number drops a bit.

 

 

Axle Gunner

 

Axle Gunner is another star for the Reign.  He’s on his second season with Riga.  He’s a center who wins on average around 60% of the face offs.  Through 33 games, Gunner has 7 more points than Leitner, and leads the team.  Part of this success is Gunner’s face off wins.  He’s scored multiple times off the face off.  Gunner has multiple double digit shot games, and leads the league with 286 shots, scoring on 6.29%.  Gunner gets credit for rebound goals, Gunner gets a number of his shots blocked, and picks up the rebound on occasion.  On the special team play, Axle Gunner has scored 4 power play goals, 11 power play assists, 1 short handed goal and 1 short handed assist.

 

Axle Gunner gets hit a lot too, but his strength is at 99 TPE, puck handling is at 92, and skating is at 90, therefore he doesn’t lose the puck very often.  He’s at a .82 ratio of hits to hits taken through 33 games.  Axle Gunner is not much of a shot blocker, only 12 thus far; perhaps his team is focused on offense, or its that he goes after the free pucks more often, with a 93 defensive attribute.

 

During the analysis of Axle Gunner, his multiple point games went down after he applied to his build.  He bumped up checking by 2 to 67, puck handling by 1 to 92, passing by 1 to 71, scoring by 1 to 89, and defense by 1 to 93.  Gunner’s face off wins were not affected, his shots increased slightly,  and his hits did not fluctuate.  Whatever Steve has planned for his player’s build, its working.  Through 33 games, Axle Gunner has 3 first stars, 4 second stars, and 3 third stars.

 

Gunner’s PH/SK score is 1.02.  He has a DF/PA score of 1.30, a 72 score for his SK/(SC/PA), and his ST/SC score is 1.11.  Gunner’s potential, a constant 50, his morale score is 55, experience at 81, and his overall rating is 79, which is the highest of the 6 players analyzed.  This gives Axle Gunner a variable score of 3.48.

 

Based on my flawed evaluation, I predict Gunner to score multiple goals in the next few games and then have a drought for three to five games before scoring some points again.

 

 

Antonia Bucatini

 

Antonia Bucatini is an HC Davos phenom.  She’s in her third season with the Dynamo and is a high dollar center.  Like Axle Gunner, Bucatini wins most of her face offs, and gets multiple opportunities to score off rebounds from teammates.  Bucatini wins over 62% of the puck most games, and has even had a few games winning over 70% and one game over 80% of the pucks.  There is no direct correlation to HC Davos losses with the face off wins by Bucatini; however, there is a correlation with the likelihood of Bucatini not scoring a goal or assist when HC Davos loses.  This likelihood does not mimic Bucatini not getting a point and HC Davos winning.  In addition, Bucatini’s shots are fewer when they lose, and her missed shots are up.

 

Antonia Bucatini is a dedicated offensive player with a .45 ratio of hits to hits taken, but like Gunner, her strength, puck handling, and defense give her a better opportunity of keeping the puck.  In the defensive zone, Bucatini wins the puck most of the time but her teammates have a tendency to ice the puck after the face off.  She has a third of her games with multiple points, and 13 of the 33 games with no points.  In the first half of the 33 games, she had one streak of no points for 3 games and then lit it up by scoring 5 goals in the next two games.  Her longest no point streak was five games starting at game 17, and I thought I would see another blast of points but that didn’t happen.  Since game 17, she’s had only 3 two point games and 1 three point game.

 

I suspect that this change occurred when her attributes were adjusted.  Her skating increased by 1 to 90, puck handling increased by 4 to 92, and defense increased by 1 to 89, which dropped her PH/SK score and increased her DF/PA score.  This is by no means an indication that Bucatini is not successful as she continues to contribute to her team with her dominating face offs, a a steady contribution of goals and/or assists.  When Bucatini shines, she shines bright, earning first star 5 times and second star 2 times in the 33 games.  In addition, her scores tell me that she is due to light it up and go on a hot streak, and based on her variable score a big hot streak!!  Her points for 20 minutes is at .73, her PH/SKK score is 1.04, DF/PA score is 1.29, SK/(SC/PA) is at 72.0, and her ST/SC score is 1.13.  Her experience is at 71, potential at 50, morale at 61, and overall is at 77.  Her variable score is 4.40.

 

Based on my evaluation of Antonia Bucatini, I predict that she will have an early breakout over the next few games and then slow to 1 point a game before some more multiple point games.  Or… she will have a five game drought.  See, its a flawed experiment!

 

 

Logan Ninefingers

 

The third center in this analysis is none other than my IRL bud, Logan Ninefingers.  Ninefingers is in his 4th season with Vancouver and converted from a beefy right winger to a strong center.  At the 33 game mark, Ninefingers and his teammate, Riley Martin led the Wolves in goals and assists respectively.  It’s safe to say that Logan Ninefingers is having a killer season.  His face off percentage is averaging over 55% and there have been several games over 65%.  One of the things I learned with this analysis is that winning the face offs matter more often than not.  Like Bucatini and Gunner, when Ninefingers wins the face off, the Wolves have a better chance of scoring.  The Wolves dont ice the puck off Ninefingers’ face offs as often as Bucatini, but that still happens.

 

Logan Ninefingers loses the puck from hits more often than Bucatini, even though his strength, defense, and puck handling are higher, but his checking is considerably lower.  In addition, Ninefingers’ variable score is .07 higher than Bucatini, which could be a factor.  Ninefingers’ hit to hit taken ratio is at .52.  Logan Ninefingers is scoring at a whopping 12.57% and only 57 shots have been blocked so far, with another 137 missing the net.  Ninefingers takes advantages of rebounds as his assists numbers are high due to his aggressive teammates scoring off his shots.  Ninefingers has been a dominating force for the Wolves and has earned 1st star five times, 2nd star five times, and 3rd star twice.  He has also racked up 4 power play goals and 11 power play assists.  Logan’s points per 20 minutes is .93.

 

I’m excited to see what Ninefingers’ season ending results are considering how he has several multiple point games thus far and only one streak of four games with no points.  His contribution of the team capitalizing on his winning the puck is encouraging and likely to continue given his current build.

 

Ninefingers could easily hit the 115 mark in points, especially if he gets his variable score to drop a bit from the current 4.47.  His PH/SK score is 1.04.  His DF/PA score is 1.34.  His SK(SC/PA) score is 71.10, and his ST/SC is at 1.14.  Logan Ninefingers has an experience rating of 68.  His potential is 50, a constant, his morale is at 55, and his overall rating is at 77.

 

Based on my evaluation of Ninefingers, I’m going out on a limb to say that Ninefingers will have a slow run over the next ten games.  Just remember Scurvy, its flawed so you’ll probably knock em dead!

 

I just realized that this is well over the 2000 word count, it does me no good to keep writing as I’m maxing on 4 weeks TPE.  And since I am completely burnt out of continuing this experiment I am not going to write anything about Riley Martin or Bollos de Trueno.  I failed.  I could not crack the code.

 

 

2415 words

[Mysterious_Fish 379]

On 11/11/2024 at 10:14 AM, Thunder said:

If you should decide to read this entire media spot, it’s entirely up to you to determine if there is any validity to the outcome.  I cannot be responsible for any screw up on my calculations, data collection, or even on the guidance I received during the gathering and computations to complete this report.

 

With that disclaimer out of the way, I first need to thank  @ucyXpher, @CowboyinAmerica, and @Steve, for giving me permission to dig into their player and see if I can come up with something interesting to determine what is making them successful in the VHL.  I also need to thank @Scurvy and @Smarch.  I evaluated their players as well, even though I did not let them know I included them in this report.  Just to be fair to Scurvy and Smarch, I included Bollos de Trueno in here as well.

 

All data was collected from the start of the season through games completed on November 1st.  I processed all the information with the premise that certain attributes meant more to the success of the player than other attributes, thus I placed more emphasis on those specific attributes.  I also came into this experiment with the thought that the difference in TPE between certain attributes affect the player also.  With that being said, I can safely say that I have not cracked the code and I have not figured out what the best player build is.  There are way too many variables, like other players, opponents, and team morale.  Team morale is one that kept messing with my calculations because the morale changed for reasons I cannot figure out.  An example is one day Riga is playing at a morale of 61 and the next day its at a 53, but won both games the previous day, and to make matters worse, they won at 53 to a team with 64 team morale.

 

Now let me explain what I did first.  I went through every game played focusing on data that I could not gather easily; for example, hits taken losing the puck, maintaining control of the puck, rebound shots, assists from rebounds, being involved in the goal but not getting credit for an assist.  I also included shots right after face offs.  These numbers were isolated to the individual player and helped with the analysis of each game to determine a pattern.  In addition, I used their current TPE and changes to TPE to determine what affect there might have been on the player following the changes.  The game outcome was not a factor with coming up with the assigned variable number for probability factors.  I came up with a variable number based on a series of computations of the attributes and use that variable number to help determine consistency, or I should say to justify my reasoning for guessing the consistency and potential results.  Once again, I failed and did not crack the code!

 

Scurvy, before you flip me shit about having too much time on my hands and all that crap, just know that I gave up reading at night so I could collect the data and ended out going to bed with all these F-ing numbers in my head working out the information to try to validate the outcomes.  While you were role playing Ninefingers getting it on with Ferro, I was doing something productive.

 

 

Lucy Leitner

 

Starting with Lucy Leitner, Riga Reign defenseman, she’s in her third season with the Reign.  Lucy began the season on fire.  She racked up points in 11 of the first 15 games, and through 33 games she has gotten at least one point in 25 games.  She has had 8 multi-point games in this period and can easily be described as dependable.  She doesn’t shoot as much as you’d expect, only one double digit game.  Her defensive game is admirable as she has no issues blocking shots and hitting opponents.  These numbers aren’t record breaking but they are dependable.

 

As far as scoring goals, Lucy scored multiple goals from deflections and rebounds, and of her 8 goals, 4 of them have been on the power play.  She seems to get involved more in power plays as she also has 4 assists with a team advantage.  Her scoring TPE started the season at 81, and she bumped it up to 82 recently.  It didn’t really change much, even though her puck handling and skating started out at 90 and 89 respectively, until she bumped up puck handling to 92 and skating to 90.

 

Lucy’s passing attribute has remained at 64 throughout the season, but her defense started at 92 until she bumped it up to 93; however, her strength is now at 78, but still lower than the other 5 players I looked into.  This combination of TPE amongst passing, defense, puck handling, skating, scoring, and strength may be keeping her from losing the puck when she is hit.  She is currently at a .56 hit to being hit ratio, even with a 67 checking.  Lucy tends to be one player behind in the passing process for assists.  If her teammates would shoot from her passes, this would change!!

 

Lucy Leitner is at .80 points per 20 minutes of play.  Her puck handling/skating score is 1.02, which is consistent with the other 5 players.  Her defense/passing score is 1.45, which is higher in comparison.  She has a 70.31 score for skating/(scoring/passing), and a .95 score for strength/scoring.  Her potential is at 50, which is a constant, morale is 55, experience is at 61, and her overall rating is 77, giving her a variable number of 3.86.  This number should go down as Lucy applies TPE throughout the remainder of the season.

 

Based on the overall analysis I predict Lucy to score 1 goal and 10 assists in the next 10 games.  Also going to say she’s gonna light it up in the play offs, especially if that variable number drops a bit.

 

 

Axle Gunner

 

Axle Gunner is another star for the Reign.  He’s on his second season with Riga.  He’s a center who wins on average around 60% of the face offs.  Through 33 games, Gunner has 7 more points than Leitner, and leads the team.  Part of this success is Gunner’s face off wins.  He’s scored multiple times off the face off.  Gunner has multiple double digit shot games, and leads the league with 286 shots, scoring on 6.29%.  Gunner gets credit for rebound goals, Gunner gets a number of his shots blocked, and picks up the rebound on occasion.  On the special team play, Axle Gunner has scored 4 power play goals, 11 power play assists, 1 short handed goal and 1 short handed assist.

 

Axle Gunner gets hit a lot too, but his strength is at 99 TPE, puck handling is at 92, and skating is at 90, therefore he doesn’t lose the puck very often.  He’s at a .82 ratio of hits to hits taken through 33 games.  Axle Gunner is not much of a shot blocker, only 12 thus far; perhaps his team is focused on offense, or its that he goes after the free pucks more often, with a 93 defensive attribute.

 

During the analysis of Axle Gunner, his multiple point games went down after he applied to his build.  He bumped up checking by 2 to 67, puck handling by 1 to 92, passing by 1 to 71, scoring by 1 to 89, and defense by 1 to 93.  Gunner’s face off wins were not affected, his shots increased slightly,  and his hits did not fluctuate.  Whatever Steve has planned for his player’s build, its working.  Through 33 games, Axle Gunner has 3 first stars, 4 second stars, and 3 third stars.

 

Gunner’s PH/SK score is 1.02.  He has a DF/PA score of 1.30, a 72 score for his SK/(SC/PA), and his ST/SC score is 1.11.  Gunner’s potential, a constant 50, his morale score is 55, experience at 81, and his overall rating is 79, which is the highest of the 6 players analyzed.  This gives Axle Gunner a variable score of 3.48.

 

Based on my flawed evaluation, I predict Gunner to score multiple goals in the next few games and then have a drought for three to five games before scoring some points again.

 

 

Antonia Bucatini

 

Antonia Bucatini is an HC Davos phenom.  She’s in her third season with the Dynamo and is a high dollar center.  Like Axle Gunner, Bucatini wins most of her face offs, and gets multiple opportunities to score off rebounds from teammates.  Bucatini wins over 62% of the puck most games, and has even had a few games winning over 70% and one game over 80% of the pucks.  There is no direct correlation to HC Davos losses with the face off wins by Bucatini; however, there is a correlation with the likelihood of Bucatini not scoring a goal or assist when HC Davos loses.  This likelihood does not mimic Bucatini not getting a point and HC Davos winning.  In addition, Bucatini’s shots are fewer when they lose, and her missed shots are up.

 

Antonia Bucatini is a dedicated offensive player with a .45 ratio of hits to hits taken, but like Gunner, her strength, puck handling, and defense give her a better opportunity of keeping the puck.  In the defensive zone, Bucatini wins the puck most of the time but her teammates have a tendency to ice the puck after the face off.  She has a third of her games with multiple points, and 13 of the 33 games with no points.  In the first half of the 33 games, she had one streak of no points for 3 games and then lit it up by scoring 5 goals in the next two games.  Her longest no point streak was five games starting at game 17, and I thought I would see another blast of points but that didn’t happen.  Since game 17, she’s had only 3 two point games and 1 three point game.

 

I suspect that this change occurred when her attributes were adjusted.  Her skating increased by 1 to 90, puck handling increased by 4 to 92, and defense increased by 1 to 89, which dropped her PH/SK score and increased her DF/PA score.  This is by no means an indication that Bucatini is not successful as she continues to contribute to her team with her dominating face offs, a a steady contribution of goals and/or assists.  When Bucatini shines, she shines bright, earning first star 5 times and second star 2 times in the 33 games.  In addition, her scores tell me that she is due to light it up and go on a hot streak, and based on her variable score a big hot streak!!  Her points for 20 minutes is at .73, her PH/SKK score is 1.04, DF/PA score is 1.29, SK/(SC/PA) is at 72.0, and her ST/SC score is 1.13.  Her experience is at 71, potential at 50, morale at 61, and overall is at 77.  Her variable score is 4.40.

 

Based on my evaluation of Antonia Bucatini, I predict that she will have an early breakout over the next few games and then slow to 1 point a game before some more multiple point games.  Or… she will have a five game drought.  See, its a flawed experiment!

 

 

Logan Ninefingers

 

The third center in this analysis is none other than my IRL bud, Logan Ninefingers.  Ninefingers is in his 4th season with Vancouver and converted from a beefy right winger to a strong center.  At the 33 game mark, Ninefingers and his teammate, Riley Martin led the Wolves in goals and assists respectively.  It’s safe to say that Logan Ninefingers is having a killer season.  His face off percentage is averaging over 55% and there have been several games over 65%.  One of the things I learned with this analysis is that winning the face offs matter more often than not.  Like Bucatini and Gunner, when Ninefingers wins the face off, the Wolves have a better chance of scoring.  The Wolves dont ice the puck off Ninefingers’ face offs as often as Bucatini, but that still happens.

 

Logan Ninefingers loses the puck from hits more often than Bucatini, even though his strength, defense, and puck handling are higher, but his checking is considerably lower.  In addition, Ninefingers’ variable score is .07 higher than Bucatini, which could be a factor.  Ninefingers’ hit to hit taken ratio is at .52.  Logan Ninefingers is scoring at a whopping 12.57% and only 57 shots have been blocked so far, with another 137 missing the net.  Ninefingers takes advantages of rebounds as his assists numbers are high due to his aggressive teammates scoring off his shots.  Ninefingers has been a dominating force for the Wolves and has earned 1st star five times, 2nd star five times, and 3rd star twice.  He has also racked up 4 power play goals and 11 power play assists.  Logan’s points per 20 minutes is .93.

 

I’m excited to see what Ninefingers’ season ending results are considering how he has several multiple point games thus far and only one streak of four games with no points.  His contribution of the team capitalizing on his winning the puck is encouraging and likely to continue given his current build.

 

Ninefingers could easily hit the 115 mark in points, especially if he gets his variable score to drop a bit from the current 4.47.  His PH/SK score is 1.04.  His DF/PA score is 1.34.  His SK(SC/PA) score is 71.10, and his ST/SC is at 1.14.  Logan Ninefingers has an experience rating of 68.  His potential is 50, a constant, his morale is at 55, and his overall rating is at 77.

 

Based on my evaluation of Ninefingers, I’m going out on a limb to say that Ninefingers will have a slow run over the next ten games.  Just remember Scurvy, its flawed so you’ll probably knock em dead!

 

I just realized that this is well over the 2000 word count, it does me no good to keep writing as I’m maxing on 4 weeks TPE.  And since I am completely burnt out of continuing this experiment I am not going to write anything about Riley Martin or Bollos de Trueno.  I failed.  I could not crack the code.

 

 

2415 words

Now I was going to read this but then forgot to. So I will read it either tmrw or Thursday

[LucyXpher 1,409]

Fantastic article and a lot of research to chew on!  I am very much on board with your predicted playoff productivity— even if the last little stretch has been super meh