Why one of these four teams will win the Continental Cup

[badcolethetitan 1,037]

Why one of these four teams will win the Continental Cup

 

Disclaimer: I did not use bot ratings for calculation averages, as it would extremely weigh down the averages for teams that would be running a bot.

NA Conference

 

Team: Toronto Legion

Description: The Toronto Legion are a team this season that's been towards the top of NA the entire season. This team is built off of their extremely high physical play, with an average of 61.1 CK on the team, which is the highest in the entire league. On top of that, they've got the highest defensive skill in NA, with an average of 86.7 DF, which nets them being a very defensive, physical team. I mean, the statistics back it up as well, they're currently tied 3rd for the lowest GA in the league, with 156 tied with the Moscow Menace. Toronto is a top four defensive team in my eyes and on top of that, they can score as well. They're currently ranked third in the league in scoring, which makes sense why they're at the top of NA currently. As for scoring average, they've got an average scoring attribute of 77.0 on the team, however, they've got the largest passing/scoring gap in NA, with a +7.7 scoring gap on average per player. If you're going with meta, this is probably the best thing you could have, as they've got lots of scorers and little passers, which is up for debate if that's ideal or not. Regardless, Toronto seems to be a favorite to make it out of NA and potentially win the cup and I'd love to see the % of people that pick them winning the cup. The only issue with this team is they take a lot of penalties, ranking #5 in penalties taken in the league, only behind WAR, HSK, CHI and NYA. However, their PK is stellar at 5th in the league with 85.45%, noting back to the team defense that seems to make them play better than they are. Regardless, we'll see how far they can go and they should be a favorite that people will pick to win it all.

Strengths: Team defense, physicality, penalty kill

Weaknesses: Lots and lots of penalty minutes

 

Team: Seattle Bears

Description: The second team on this list out of the four possible winners in my eyes are the Seattle Bears. Seattle is a juggernaut for analytics, I mean, they're the best team in NA in skating (84.8 average), puck handling (87.6 average), and scoring (81.0 average). On top of that, they've got the highest passing rating in the entire VHL with 75.9 on average per player, which you could argue is a bad thing, but regardless, they're at the top for a lot of big name stats. The passing/scoring gap for them is +5.1, which is a little under average for NA, but still, they have other areas to make up for it. Their defense is fairly good as well, with one of the better defenses in NA, with an average of 85.1, very close to Calgary with 85.2. One interesting thing to note is Seattle by far has the lowest checking, a 44.8 average on their team. The second lowest (that is in the playoffs) is Moscow with 52.2. Seattle barely hits, in fact, they are the second lowest in the entire league with 1093, only LA has less hits with 1082. However, because of this they are the second penalized team in the league with 572 PIMs, which is very low for the average. This team excels at literally everything besides that, they've got the #2 PP and the #1 PK in the entire league. If you want to be all analytical and pick a team to win it all, Seattle probably is going to be the one you pick. They've got amazing builds and the sim loves them because of it. I would be picking Seattle to go far and potentially win the cup as it's a very safe pick in the sim's eyes.

Strengths: Offense, defense, special teams

Weaknesses: Very low physicality

 

EU Conference

 

Team: Moscow Menace

Description: The third team to pop up on the list and the first from the EU conference is the Moscow Menace. If you want to pick based off of analytics like you are doing for Seattle, Moscow is the bet. In fact, I think Moscow/Seattle should be the most common finals matchup in the bracket if people are picking based off of stats alone. Moscow on average has the highest skating (85.4), puck handling (90.2) and scoring (83.1) in the entire league. Not just EU, but yes, the entire league. On top of that, this team has a passing/scoring gap of +16.0. This is by far the highest in the league and it obviously shows to Spartan's roster construction. Where they have literally the lowest passing in the league at 67.1 on average, it doesn't really matter as this team is an absolute unit. This team is #1 offensively in the entire league, beating out Helsinki, while also being the #3 team defensively. They've got (as of right now) the only 2 100+ point scorers and a 50 goal scorer on their team. They've got a top 5 powerplay, with the #6 penalty kill as well. This team quite literally has almost no holes, the only thing you could say is they don't hit a whole ton like Seattle, but that again is not necessarily a bad thing. The only thing stopping this team from ultimately winning it all for sure is RNG. RNG plays a factor and at the end of the day, there's a more than likely chance they won't win if you compare them to the field. However, if you were to pick a single team winning it all, Moscow is easily the best bet out of any team. They've got the team, they've got the players, and the analytics favor them. They're an amazing team and should be the #1 team picked to win it all.

Strengths: Literally everything

Weaknesses: Very low physicality

 

Team: HC Davos Dynamo

Description: Last on this list and the second team from the EU conference is HC Davos Dynamo. Davos by all means is a very good team, but their biggest strength on paper is their team defense. They are the best defensive team on paper in the league, with an average of 89.1 defensively. This number is actually insane, showing the commitment from the team on playing defense. It's funny, because despite having the best defensive ratings in the league, they're actually just above average defensively. On top of that, they're above average offensively as well. This team isn't necessarily an "analytical darling" as people would say, but they are a team that could surprise some people come playoffs. I think if anyone in EU is going to take down Moscow, it might be Davos as they've got a super heavy defensive style that could counter Moscow. I am in no means saying that Davos is the favorite to beat them, but should Davos be in a wildcard matchup and beat Moscow, we could see a potential conference finals matchup just in the first round. Davos doesn't take a lot of penalties either, being ranked #4 in the league for least PIMs. Their special teams are decent as well, with the #3 powerplay and the #7 penalty kill. This isn't a "star-studded absolute insane team" analytically, but they're a type of team that if they get hot, watch out, because they can take down literally anyone. I don't expect Davos to be a super popular pick, but I expect them to at least be top 5 in team's selected to win it all.

Strengths: Extremely defensive

Weaknesses: "Good" but not "Great" at anything

 

 

I ended up using these stats, as I felt like the others were extremely small/not really important. Also, this doesn't take into account goalies, which could end up playing a role if team's are extremely close matched, where I'd value the higher TPE goaltender.

 

Conclusion

 

Regardless, it will be interesting to see who will win the cup this season. I feel like there's decent favorites with these four teams, but as everyone knows some random wildcard team will get hot and go on a tear and completely ruin everything. The good news is Davos is currently in the wildcard, so if they win I look smart! I think any team can realistically win the cup, outside of like London as they're kind of just TPE gapped everywhere. They're a young team though and are on the up, so I think in the future they'll be scary. As for teams to not predict going far, London obviously don't predict them. I also think NYA will probably bounce out against whoever they place against, just because of the low scoring and also extremely high checking (like Toronto). The difference is Toronto is slightly better than NYA and I think their only real competition is SEA. It will be super fun to watch this playoffs go down though and I hope this gives everyone some insight into who to pick moving forward in your bracket!

 

P.S. Moscow won't win because STHS hates them or something. Have fun losing to Davos after the wildcard matchup, some 1 seed always goes down every year I swear. Better pray this time it's Toronto or Seattle instead of you!

[badcolethetitan 1,037]

1500+ words

[v.2 1,483]

Riga fisted

[leandrofg 1,254]

Writing some great content lately, @badcolethetitan! Cheers!  

[AJW 2,354]

 

[Spartan 4,817]

Regular season merchants dw

[Lemorse7 1,053]

we all know Victory cup curse Moscow vs Davos Wildcard boost is 100% a Davos win just saying