VHL March Madness: The Conclusion

[Gustav 6,630]

It's the final iteration of VHL March Madness, in which I asked the league to fill out a spreadsheet for me that I would then run through on my own and cross-reference submissions to my own picks to score them. We left off last week at the Sweet 16, and I'm fortunate enough that the rest of the bracket contains fewer matchups that I was able to run through all the rest for you today. Those being:

 

 

SWEET 16:

 

 

(5) Jarmo Ruutu defeats (16) Leif Reingaard: I’ve taken long enough to write this that there’s now no reason not to consider this season’s (now complete) stats, something that I don’t think changes the outcome here but certainly helps it. Regression is hitting Reingaard hard enough to translate to a step back on the score sheet, while Ruutu just put up a fourth straight 100-point season aided by somewhat of a divestment from a checking build to deal with the same depreciation. In past rounds, Reingaard mostly succeeded by facing players with short careers, but Ruutu has been around just as long and has performed fairly decisively better as well.

 

(3) Guntis Gavilrovs defeats (2) Riley Martin: This one was closer than I thought it would be. Martin has the edge in points, but there’s a positional difference and the reasons why otherwise aren’t drastic (Martin did better as a young player before either one hit their prime). Plus, Gavilrovs has won a few individual awards, and the one 100-point season that both of these players have is more impressive in Gavilrovs’ case. This season, Gavilrovs was second among defensemen in goals, just behind MY player, Lazlo Holmes.

 

(5) Obuz Schneider Canet du Bocage defeats (8) Joshua Schwarzer: Questions about Bocage’s position switch were answered with a pretty-OK season that equaled Schwarzer’s point total. Schwarzer somehow managed to make 48 goals part of that 90-point total, but it’s pretty evident that Bocage, having essentially matched Schwarzer’s offensive production up to this point despite a positional difference, deserves the edge here. That’s especially evident when we consider awards, where Bocage wins decisively. 

 

(3) Axle Gunner defeats (7) Kimi Raikkonen: It would be hard to convince me that 777 points doesn’t beat 451, and you could point out that Gunner has two more seasons to work with, but it’s also not like Raikkonen will break 160 twice in a row out of nowhere. The totals put Gunner ahead easily, but Gunner also blows Raikkonen away in awards. Gunner hasn’t had a close matchup yet, and where that statement goes in future rounds remains to be seen.

 

(1) Logan Ninefingers defeats (13) Martin Kemp: A cool little run for a 13-seed comes to an end here as Ninefingers takes out one of the bracket’s more interesting underdogs. Kemp just wrapped up a career, but Ninefingers has a higher point total in fewer seasons and just broke 200 hits for the second season in a row to re-establish a reputation as a physical player. Ninefingers is also the only 1-seed left, and thus the only one to make the Elite Eight.

 

(6) Grimgor Ironhide defeats (7) WWWWWWWWWWWW WWWWWWWWWWWW: This one was a tough one to gauge because I’m comparing skaters to goaltenders, and even though I’m almost positive that no one else in the pool had W past this round, I wouldn’t fault someone for continuing to weigh W’s MVP season (arguably) heavily enough to be cause for advancement on its own. Ironhide has actually never broken 100 points, something that won’t be said for many forwards up to this point, That said, he’s a huge presence as a two-way player, has in fact broken 95 for 4 seasons in a row, and hasn’t won a Cup yet but has generally taken multiple teams deeper into the playoffs than W has tended to take New York. Plus, with at least 42 goals in every season since S94, Ironhide boasts an oddly high goal-scoring rate for someone whose individual point totals aren’t top of the line. It’s also possible that current season bias plays into this a bit—W’s down performance this season was a factor in New York’s competitive roster leaving themselves with wild card games to play.

 

(12) Spanish Moon Moth defeats (9) Raimo Tuominen: Current season bias doesn’t point in Moon Moth’s favor after a late-career regression played into a 74-point season. There’s enough to justify overlooking that in some of the other obvious differences—a Szatkowski and a Brooks on Moon Moth’s end outweigh the Funk on Tuominen’s, and Moon Moth needs just 44 points next season to beat Tuominen’s career total.

 

(15) Dalkr Vidarsson defeats (6) Thor Reingaard: This wasn’t a call that I envisioned myself making at the start of the bracket, and there is admittedly some current season bias in play since Vidarsson MIGHT have a shot at the MVP ballot this season after tying for the league lead in SV% with no Wolves inside the top 10 in points. Vidarsson has already won MVP once, and if it continues to be a goalie award, then who knows? Reingaard is solid but has no awards and no specific seasons I’d identify as standouts. Vidarsson is solid and has both of those. Real-life March Madness would never have a 12 vs. 15 matchup, but such is life in the VHL.

 

 

ELITE EIGHT:

 

 

(5) Jarmo Ruutu defeats (3) Guntis Gavilrovs: Now we’re getting into the real heavyweight matchups. Gavilrovs has one of the best individual seasons of the whole bracket with a S97 that featured a clean sweep of all of the defensive awards, and as mentioned, fell behind only the one and only Lazlo Holmes in goals this season at his position. That said, Gavilrovs has a few lesser seasons that I’ve de-emphasized in previous rounds, and that’s something that becomes relevant here because Ruutu has put up a whole career without ever falling into that territory. Ruutu finishes with as impressive a 4-season run as is present in the league, and even though that’s only included one individual award (Beketov in S95), he’s going to be a fairly tough Final Four opponent.

 

(3) Axle Gunner defeats (5) Obuz Schneider Canet du Bocage: I’d wondered earlier on if Bocage would have what it takes to make a deep run, and it’s true that a couple 100-point seasons on defense are probably more impressive than any of Gunner’s regular seasons as a forward. Bocage even has a couple cool awards and a Cup to speak of, but Gunner’s award cabinet features Playoff MVP twice, which necessitates a look into his record-breaking playoff numbers as well. It’s also worth pointing out that Bocage, while elite for four seasons, doesn’t stack up over a full career to Gunner, who’s been a household name since the two were teammates in S92.

 

(6) Grimgor Ironhide defeats (1) Logan Ninefingers: It’s a bit of a shame that this far into the bracket, we’re seeing players who beat other players for reasons of longevity, but these two have similar build types and Ironhide has all the same numbers, just more of them. Hunting around for more reasons, Ironhide does happen to be noticeably better at throwing hits and so far has put up more consistent offensive production than Ninefingers, who has the best single-season point total of the two but loses spots 2-5 on that list to Ironhide.

 

(12) Spanish Moon Moth defeats (15) Dalkr Vidarsson: I’m not sure how much I like this one, and it’s once again super difficult to figure out who’s better when one of the players is a goaltender. Both of these players have around three great seasons to speak of, and the recognition that Moon Moth has garnered hasn’t quite equaled that of an MVP, but one could argue that more credit was deserved for seasons like the 58 goals we saw in S97. I feel like every time I try to find a shortcoming for one of these players, the basic equivalent is there for the other one as well—there are the 25-win seasons and the net minus ratings and (in both cases!) the dropoff in performance after playing for Toronto. Some level of subjectivity is added here in that I just feel like I’ve seen Moon Moth talked about a lot more, which could be a reason for giving credit on the basis that it means there’s a larger impact. Taking this season out of the equation, which was Moon Moth’s worst and arguably Vidarsson’s best, the scales tip more in favor of Moon Moth, and I think it’s also good to move on the player who likely would have made it with the information available at the start of the tournament.

 

 

FINAL FOUR:

 

 

(3) Axle Gunner defeats (5) Jarmo Ruutu: It might be a weird pick for those who hunt for individual seasons, because Ruutu’s top four either match or exceed Gunner’s best. That said, Gunner has spread a higher overall total across a whole career, which includes over 40 more goals. That also includes over 500 more hits, 59 shots blocked, and those record-breaking playoff numbers that I’ve mentioned earlier. If Ruutu had put up more awards in those super impressive offensive seasons, we may have a different conversation here. But as of now, I would imagine that Gunner would have an easier time being mentioned around the forum in 10 seasons.

 

(6) Grimgor Ironhide defeats (12) Spanish Moon Moth: This one uses much of the same logic as my selection of Gunner. If we’re talking about overall totals, Ironhide has a marginally higher point total that includes a marginally higher goal total, but what really stands out is a difference of almost 800 hits. To me, Moon Moth has been one of the league’s best on offense for about two seasons, but being one of the league’s best physical players for six seasons running while also being pretty darn good on offense is tough to beat. So, because of a long track record of consistency, Ironhide hits the championship.

 

 

CHAMPIONSHIP:

 

 

(3) Axle Gunner defeats (6) Grimgor Ironhide: I hope it’s luck and not my bias that put two forwards who are lacking in mind-blowing individual regular seasons but have been remarkably consistent in both scoring and playing physically in the championship. Fortunately for me, that makes it a pretty easy comparison. Gunner has one more season on record than Ironhide, but I think it would be pretty lame if I made that the deciding factor. Looking ahead, Ironhide isn’t going to catch Gunner’s point total next season. While Ironhide already has more hits, Gunner has almost 1,700, which is at least enough to prevent that side of Ironhide’s game from playing a major role. I also don’t want to say “record-breaking playoff numbers” again, but much of Gunner’s awards and recognition are connected to those and that’s something that makes it impossible to fairly evaluate Gunner without taking a look beyond the regular season stats. I wouldn’t be surprised if Gunner ended up in the Hall of Fame next season, and in that sense, I’m pretty sure the bracket has served its purpose.

 

 

I'm going to drop the standings here, which contain a very decisive winner:

1. @sadie - 1430, containing the same champion as I had and featuring only one different pick in the entire left half of the bracket. LINK
2. @Corco - 590, featuring a late-bracket point surge including placement of Ironhide in the finals. LINK
3. @jacobcarson877 - 520 - LINK

 

My own bracket can be found HERE.

 

 

Congrats to @Steve on winning a tournament that you may not have even known about, and best of luck with Gunner's Hall of Fame chances! Looking back on this, I'm not sure I'd do it again--it was really fun to set up, and the first round went OK enough, but I got super burned out with it after that point and really ended up having to slug my way through the rest of it. I wouldn't recommend it, and I'm glad that the multiclaim I'll have from this will give me a few weeks off from writing. If I do this again, I'd probably adjust the criteria a little bit even though I'm pleased with the diversity of perspectives we have had so far. I'd probably do seeding by TPE (depreciation knocks a lot of players down if I do it by TPA and none of the 1-seeds had very developed careers). Other than that, would I keep the judgment by total contribution? I'm not sure. I think it went OK and I think it's one of the more objective ways to do it. I understand the criticism that it skews things toward older players and I don't disagree with it, but do I really want to go with "who is the best player" when that could just devolve into staring at builds? I think stats are more fun, and I'm not sure I would want to move away from it (it would make much more sense if I did this by TPE anyway; many more of the winners would correlate to their seeding). All in all, if you followed me through this, I'm glad that you did. Let me know what you think, and also let me know what you think of my picks.

 

2,216 words; I am good for a month if I want to be and thank GOD I don't have to write another one of these. Pumping the last two of these out when I didn't really want to is good enough for me.

[Gustav 6,630]

Week 2

[jacobcarson877 2,675]

And this is why Jacob will never pick up sports betting

[sadie 1,088]

i needed this because of how badly my normal march madness ended up