Claimed: Windows of Contention: North America [1/2]

[CowboyinAmerica 2,911]

VHL Windows of Contention: North America

 

With all due respect to Calgary and Davos, it sure seems like this year’s VHL title is going to be a four horse race. And as we approach the playoffs, and especially the conference finals, I know I’m going to be excited to see whether Quebec, New York, Helsinki or Stockholm end up on top, much like last year.

 

But that doesn’t mean that there’s not hope for the future among VHL franchises. Every single team (I think) has some semblance of a long-term plan, a time period they’re looking to compete for championships with their current core. For some teams, that’s close in. For other teams, it could be seasons away.

 

I don’t claim to know what all the GMs are thinking; I’m only an outside observer. But while trades and other big moves can shake things up, here’s one neutral person’s look at the windows of contention for the current cores of each team, starting this week with North America.

 

 Calgary Wranglers: Season 57-59

 

Naturally, I start with probably the single hardest team to pin down in the entire VHL. The Wranglers made some trades to contend for the playoffs this season, but that’s only a function of not holding their own first round pick – Calgary was still attempting to unload Gowecny at the trade deadline. With Leblanc, Savard, Snow and Scheel in particular all hitting their primes around the same time, with presumably a top pick in Season 57 following a down next year added to a new GM player, Calgary could be in line for contention as early as two seasons from now.

 

But the lingering question over all of this: Will Jacob still be around? He’s been patient so far, but it’s instructive that he only signed a two year extension in the offseason as compared to the lifetime deal he was originally offered. If Jacob doesn’t see growth to his satisfaction, Calgary may be left without a goalie right as those prospects get up to form.

 

 New York Americans: Season 55

 

The New York franchise and GM has not been shy about extending windows of opportunity a year or two longer than normal, but in this case, I’m not sure that they should. Unassisted and Holik retire after this season; Digital, Maxwell and Ravenwing are all within the next two and are facing severe depreciation. Sharpe and Shankly are about to receive salary increases, a severe one in Sharpe’s case, and the Americans’ pick will likely fall seventh or later this year in a draft that might not be as strong as originally thought. The time to blow it up may be this offseason.

 

That all begs the question for me: Was signing Holik to a two-year deal a mistake? I understand the wish to get the best goalie in the league, but having a cap hit for two goalies (Threencarnacion not withstanding) is a tough pill to swallow when you’re up against the cap and need to go for it all right now. The Americans also showed that they could get it done with Power in net, as evidenced in Season 53. Holik and Power are nice; having, say, Gowecny and Lahey (or Doughty/Dotran) to fill out lines with the cap room created by not having both would be nicer.

 

 Quebec City Meute: Season 55-57

 

The cap’s about to get interesting in Quebec. Gaudette, Muller and Locke all move from rookie to prime contracts next season, and all three are likely to move up a salary bracket or two as well. Add to that an expected substantial increase to Apollo Skye’s original $3 million contract, and the Meute will have a lot of money tied up in a few players.

 

But here’s the thing: The Meute can absolutely afford to have that money tied up. Quebec’s GM was smart, having Komarov (retirement) and AK47 (free agency) come off the books this offseason, while von Hohenzollern and Petenis move to veteran salaries at the same time. And when Fook Yu moves to a prime salary before Season 57, Titan Kronos will be coming off the books as well. I wouldn’t say that Quebec will have much room to operate, but I would still call them presumptive favorites in North America over the next two seasons, at least until depreciation really kicks in for players like Skye and Jokinen.

 

 Seattle Bears: Season 58-60

 

The Bears seem to have gone two for three in this past year’s draft in the 7, 8 and 9 slots. Luckily for them though, the two players that have stuck play the two more important positions: winger Xavier Laflamme and goalie Key Perought. Added to defenseman Alexei Federov and forthcoming center Mattias Forsberg, the Bears have a solid core that only needs one or two more pieces to develop into a future contender.

 

That’s why, out of all the teams in this year’s lottery, the Bears might be the ones chewing their fingernails the hardest. The other teams can either be flexible given their current talent (Toronto) or are early enough in rebuilding to pivot (Riga, Cologne). But while a defenseman like Ay Ay Ron might be a good replacement for the seems-to-be-a-bust Raven, landing Gabriel McAllister might accelerate this timeline to Season 57 – or even sooner, depending on New York and Calgary’s plans.

 

 Toronto Legion: Season 56-59

 

The next two years could be the Quebec and Toronto show in North America. The Legion aren’t quite there this season, but they should be by next year with another year of growth for all its young players. Reinholdt, Boeser, Sokolov, Lane and Ironside form a core that other teams are jealous of, and Toronto will add another lottery pick this year – Jigglejawns has to be enticing if the team doesn’t move up in the lottery. And given current TPE levels, it will be a few seasons until it runs into cap issues.

 

Because of that cap room, I expect this to be a big offseason for Toronto, one that will determine whether the team truly can compete for a title next season. The big name I’d have my eye on is Xander Finn, a pending free agent from Stockholm whose agent already has strong ties to both Reinholdt and Lane. This would also be a reasonable landing spot for many of New York’s older players if the team does indeed go into a rebuild.

[eaglesfan036 4,605]

Interesting article

 

I might add a 56 instead of a 57 to cgy though

[Gudnason 607]

Wonderful research, analysis and writing. You just took it to the next level! Might add thought I think Raven has turned out better than Laflamme so far.

 

Looking forward to EU.

[BOOM 8,817]

Finn is a waste of space. Pure scrub.

[DollarAndADream 3,357]

Review:

Love the article and kind words for Toronto. Hopefully you're right and I can land some FA veterans to surround my growing talents.

Also, sweet picture of a window.