Claimed: Windows of Contention: Europe (1/2)

[CowboyinAmerica 2,911]

VHL Windows of Contention: Europe

 

Last week, I took a quick look at the next time we thought some North American teams might be contending. This week, we naturally swing to the other side of the coin and look at the – honestly, more straightforward – European Conference.

 

Again, these projections are just a snapshot in time and don’t reflect what might happen in the future or GMs’ plans. I’m an analyst, not Melisandre. But for now, here’s what I’m thinking:

 

 Cologne Express: Season 58-60

 

I honestly even thought about making the beginning of the scale Season 59, but I think five seasons of rebuilding would make anybody a bit cranky. Vernon von Axelberry has said publicly that he’s committed to this rebuild, but it’s clear that it’s going to take a while—the cupboard’s completely bare except for himself and one forthcoming GM player. Out of any team in the league, even Seattle, Cologne’s the furthest out.

 

This year’s first round pick, likely first or second, and Calgary’s pick, likely fourth or fifth, is a good way towards building that base. But if Cologne doesn’t have some lottery magic, then it’s likely Season 57 at the earliest that those picks will contribute, meaning one or two years of relying on the lottery. The pre-Season 58 offseason will likely be an interesting one in Cologne though—not the least of which because, if it looks like the team’s on the verge of contention, Rudy Ying lurks at the end of his rookie contract.

 

 HC Davos Dynamo: Season 56-58

 

This one is fully about the goalies—if it were only Fujimoto, Gretzky, Trombone and those forwards in the mix, I would say that the Dynamo could afford to wait another season to see if Stockholm would sell. But Mist4ke (S53) and Reencarnacion (S52) entering the primes of their careers reconfigures the calculus a bit. The time to strike for Davos begins next season, when the roster’s still at reasonable TPE levels, but not so high where the team needs to sell everybody off before the primes of their careers.

 

I’m actually more curious about the back end of this range than the front end. The Dynamo will have a bunch of players right now that retire of Season 57 in Dotran, Donovan, etc., but I’d argue that some of those will be gone at the end of this season. By the end of Season 57, though, the Dynamo will have pretty much its whole core on prime contracts, with only this year’s likely 6th pick still on a rookie contract. Will they be able to manage the cap and extend the winning streak past that point while still maintaining depth?

 

 Helsinki Titans: Season 55-56

 

Most dynasties only last about three seasons, and anything past that is a last gasp—just look at Season 51 Toronto, or even arguably New York this year. That’s why I would normally place Helsinki’s run ending next year without even looking at the players and contracts. What I see there, as well as Helsinki’s past franchise history of reloading early, has me sure that this will be a short run.

 

At the end of this season, all of those top TPE S53 players in Moon, Cornerstone, and Jokinen (an UFA) will hit prime contracts. True, the Titans can absorb that in the interim with Velvet retiring, but add Abbott and Schmekeldorf to the mix the following offseason, both of whom are high TPE earners, and the math becomes much tougher. By that point, Gow will also be retired, and Axelsson depreciated entering his final season. Meanwhile, while Jack Shepherd should be a good, cost-controlled addition, there won’t be much else coming through without trades.

 

 Riga Reign: Season 57-59

 

Similar to Calgary in North America, I think Riga’s the team that’s hardest for me to nail down in Europe. The presence of Fredinamijs Krīgars, Marcus King and a duo of solid Season 55 prospects, Niko Bogdanovic and Rudi Ying, would make me think that contention is sooner rather than later for Riga. However, four players does not make a team, those S55 players are still in the VHLM and will require a bit more seasoning, and it remains to be seen whether the team can snag solid prospects with Quebec’s first and its own second this draft.

 

The thing that ultimately helps me land on Season 57 are the teams directly above and below. Both the Titans and Vikings, alongside a team like the Meute, are poised to be sellers following Season 56. By that point, Toronto and Calgary are likely to have already made their push, and Calgary and Seattle may still be a year away. Riga may be in that sweet spot to be one of the few major buyers next offseason, and if that’s the case, they should take full advantage.

 

 Stockholm Vikings: Season 55-56

 

Unlike the Americans, I actually do think it makes sense for the Vikings to try and stretch the window of contention one more season. Why not? The team won’t have any major cap problems due to Kohler’s retirement and many of its new S53 prime contracts being lower TPE. Maximoff and Klingberg face regression, but the S52 and S53 contingent that are gaining TPE should be able to pick up the slack. And with the competition, I’m not sure Davos will be fully ready yet. Then, next offseason, it’s not like Stockholm wouldn’t have parts to sell.

 

The question though comes in free agency – the Vikings may have their decision made for them. I mentioned in the Toronto section how Xander Finn should be a top target for the team, but he’s far from the only free agent. De Rossi, Dragonslayer, Klingberg and Kopralkov are all free agents as well, and although 3 of the 4 are likely to re-sign (2 inactives and the GM player), it could certainly factor into the calculus for Stockholm to not want to keep paying these players for little production, especially if the two actives in the group jump ship.

[Gudnason 607]

I found out somewhere in the rules GM players can't sign themselves... Have to trade for them

 

[CowboyinAmerica 2,911]

37 minutes ago, punkhippie said:

I found out somewhere in the rules GM players can't sign themselves... Have to trade for them

 

 

Sounds reasonable, I really don't pay attention to any two-player stuff

[Kendrick 4,741]

He just figured that out now, that tells you everything about the direction Cologne is headed.

[Fire Tortorella 2,653]

REVIEW:

An interesting look at the future of the European Conference. I admittedly haven't followed the team building aspect of the VHL the last two seasons of Shayne since I knew I was retiring soon. I knew Cologne was going through some struggles, but I didn't realize they were that far out. At least the rest of the European Conference will seem to be competitive in the next few seasons, while Cologne will eventually have their time.