Claimed: Trending up and down, as told by shots on goal and shooting %

[jvd 50]

I have to give credit to @punkhippie for putting this idea in my head with his comments in some of the Vegas vs Ottawa game threads; re Vegas regularly out shooting Ottawa and still losing.

 

 

Shooting for the Top: 

The next couple weeks could bring a statistical correction to a couple of VHLM top teams' seasons: The Ottawa Lynx's and the Las Vegas Aces' shots for and shooting percentages don't match their wins and losses. 

 

Getting the Shots:

The Las Vegas Aces have averaged a staggering 42.4 shots on goal per game over their last five games and all of the VHLM's top 3 shot producers are Aces (Komarov, Jones, and Gudnason). Despite this, they are tied with Saskatoon and behind Ottawa in goal scoring. Why? An unsustainably low shooting percentage. Apart from Komarov, who's 12.39% success rate is right where it should be, the whole team is under preforming. Jones and Gudnason (the #2 and #3 shot leaders in the league) are at 5.47% and 7.81%, respectively and forwards McKinley and Tabootie are both under 6%. Something has to give for Vegas. I'd expect to see a modest reduction in their shot totals and a substantial gain in their shooting percentage over the next few weeks. Gains in shooting % should outpace the losses in shot total, so look for the Aces to score a few more goals from here out. Investing a few more TPE is scoring from their lowest shooting % players would pay huge dividends too.

 

Getting the goals:

Over-achieving or just really good shooters? Let's dig into the numbers a bit to find out more. Numbers 1, 3, 4, 5, and 6 on the top shooting percentage (minimum 10 shots) are all Lynx players. Those are ridiculous rankings, especially when you consider the average scoring rating of those players is 54. Only the 6th ranked, Jeff Gow, has heavily invested in scoring (85), the rest are no higher than 53. Shooting percentage doesn't usually get much higher than 15 or 16% even on the best scorers, but high end scorers usually take large volumes of shots. All of those top shooting Lynx players are at 16% or better. 

And that brings us to their shot totals: The Lynx only have one player inside the top 10 of shots taken in the VHLM, defender Jon Snow at 9th with 159. Ottawa has averaged a tiny 24 shots on goal per game over their last 5 games, that is no where near good enough if they want to keep their spot on top of the standings. This was a bit of a down week for the Lynx though, and I would expect their shot totals to normalize in the 30 per game neighborhood. Even with an up-tick in shots, I would expect to see Ottawa lose it's spot at the top scoring team in the VHLM in the next week or so as some shooting % come back down to Earth. 

[Beaviss 4,956]

6 minutes ago, jvd said:

I have to give credit to @punkhippie for putting this idea in my head with his comments in some of the Vegas vs Ottawa game threads; re Vegas regularly out shooting Ottawa and still losing.

 

 

Shooting for the Top: 

The next couple weeks could bring a statistical correction to a couple of VHLM top teams' seasons: The Ottawa Lynx's and the Las Vegas Aces' shots for and shooting percentages don't match their wins and losses. 

 

Getting the Shots:

The Las Vegas Aces have averaged a staggering 42.4 shots on goal per game over their last five games and all of the VHLM's top 3 shot producers are Aces (Komarov, Jones, and Gudnason). Despite this, they are tied with Saskatoon and behind Ottawa in goal scoring. Why? An unsustainably low shooting percentage. Apart from Komarov, who's 12.39% success rate is right where it should be, the whole team is under preforming. Jones and Gudnason (the #2 and #3 shot leaders in the league) are at 5.47% and 7.81%, respectively and forwards McKinley and Tabootie are both under 6%. Something has to give for Vegas. I'd expect to see a modest reduction in their shot totals and a substantial gain in their shooting percentage over the next few weeks. Gains in shooting % should outpace the losses in shot total, so look for the Aces to score a few more goals from here out. Investing a few more TPE is scoring from their lowest shooting % players would pay huge dividends too.

 

Getting the goals:

Over-achieving or just really good shooters? Let's dig into the numbers a bit to find out more. Numbers 1, 3, 4, 5, and 6 on the top shooting percentage (minimum 10 shots) are all Lynx players. Those are ridiculous rankings, especially when you consider the average scoring rating of those players is 54. Only the 6th ranked, Jeff Gow, has heavily invested in scoring (85), the rest are no higher than 53. Shooting percentage doesn't usually get much higher than 15 or 16% even on the best scorers, but high end scorers usually take large volumes of shots. All of those top shooting Lynx players are at 16% or better. 

And that brings us to their shot totals: The Lynx only have one player inside the top 10 of shots taken in the VHLM, defender Jon Snow at 9th with 159. Ottawa has averaged a tiny 24 shots on goal per game over their last 5 games, that is no where near good enough if they want to keep their spot on top of the standings. This was a bit of a down week for the Lynx though, and I would expect their shot totals to normalize in the 30 per game neighborhood. Even with an up-tick in shots, I would expect to see Ottawa lose it's spot at the top scoring team in the VHLM in the next week or so as some shooting % come back down to Earth. 

 Quality over quantity 

Edited August 30, 2017 by Beaviss

[Gooningitup 1,290]

The SIM takes a lot of factors. In shooting percentage. Which is why I'm hoping our GM makes changes. When Aspin wasn't on my line I was scoring more. Due to chemistry, Aspin doesn't seem to set us up properly, so now I'm shooting a crazy low 3.5% over recent games. Well averaging 8-9 shots a game

[Gudnason 607]

Very nice analysis @jvd I like!

[Gudnason 607]

1 minute ago, Gooningitup said:

The SIM takes a lot of factors. In shooting percentage. Which is why I'm hoping our GM makes changes. When Aspin wasn't on my line I was scoring more. Due to chemistry, Aspin doesn't seem to set us up properly, so now I'm shooting a crazy low 3.5% over recent games. Well averaging 8-9 shots a game

 

Pretty sure Aspin has been there since day 1 though, at least this season

[Gudnason 607]

I stand corrected @Gooningitup. Szatkowski was the winger... in the first four games of the season, where you scored four goals. Too small a sample size, and I'd say you certainly had a lot of success too even after Asipi replaced Mike.

[Gooningitup 1,290]

30 minutes ago, punkhippie said:

I stand corrected @Gooningitup. Szatkowski was the winger... in the first four games of the season, where you scored four goals. Too small a sample size, and I'd say you certainly had a lot of success too even after Asipi replaced Mike.

 

Wasn't it only 4 games? I swear it was longer with Mike on my wing with you. Either way I think we could benefit from a change to our line up

Edited August 30, 2017 by Gooningitup

[jvd 50]

12 minutes ago, punkhippie said:

Very nice analysis @jvd I like!

Thanks!

[Gudnason 607]

1 hour ago, Gooningitup said:

 

Wasn't it only 4 games? I swear it was longer with Mike on my wing with you. Either way I think we could benefit from a change to our line up

 

Agreed; the only reasoning aside from @Tagger not wanting to break up the second line, is him going AWOL 

[Beaviss 4,956]

4 minutes ago, punkhippie said:

 

Agreed; the only reasoning aside from @Tagger not wanting to break up the second line, is him going AWOL 

 

VHLM GM's are becoming extinct