Claimed:Statistically Advanced - Week Four: Calgary Wranglers

[Rogueginger 7]

Statistically Advanced – Week Four: Calgary Wranglers

 

Statistically Advanced is a weekly feature which will give an in-depth look at a VHL team, discussing said team's weaknesses and strengths, using fancy "advanced" stats to predict trends. Each week, I'll analyze a different VHL team. Warning: If you hate numbers, this post will likely not be for you.

 

This week will focus on the Calgary Wranglers.

 

Before I begin my usually spiel about all my fancy stats and numbers, I want to address something that was mentioned to me after last week's post. I feel that I should clarify that this series is not supposed to be like a news article, like a lot of other media spots I've seen. Most of my inspiration comes from internet hockey blogs (shameless plugs to downgoesbrown.com and, for silly Leafs fans like me, theleafsnation.com). Thus, my writing style tends to be a lot less formal, and, as was pointed out to me, sometimes leads to some grammatical errors. I beg you, readers, to do me a favour and call me out on my screw-ups. Please. I hate them.

 

Of course, if you've read my previous posts, you'll know that I usually start off with something hockey-related that'll lighten the mood. Today, I'll give you two, because this will likely be the most depressing post I've done.

 

First of all: Sochi. Ha. This is where the Canadian men's hockey team will be living. These men are millionaires, and they're basically kids' summer camp beds. Those sheets are freaking hilarious. I think I used the same ones when I was five!

 

And secondly, I'd like to bring this new webcomic to your attention. Looks like there's a bright future ahead of this good ol' Canadian kid, right Don?

 

 

Right.

 

So, take a deep breath, and make sure you have some adorable pictures of kittens ready for after you're done reading this. Heeeeere we gooooo!

Team Overview

 

To put it lightly, the Calgary Wranglers have... struggled this year. They're currently last in the North American conference, with 13 points (in 61 games, they're 6-54-1). In the 10 games I looked at for this post, they went 2-8-0, with victories over the Riga Reign and the New York Americans.

 

The Wranglers are the worst in all the stats measured on the VHL Pro stats page, except for powerplay % and, unsurprisingly, hits. Calgary have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

 

But every cloud has a silver lining, right? God, I hope so.

 

Advanced Trends

 

So uh... remember last week, in this post, when I said that one of the Iron Eagles' games was close to being the first game I'd seen with over 100 shot attempts against? Well, about that...

 

I, as always, analyzed 10 games. The Wranglers allowed over 100 shot attempts (or, if you want to sound like a stats geek, Corsi events!) in 7 of them. SEVEN. Christ, that's awful. In one particularly memorable game, they surrendered 189 shot attempts, including over 100 shots on goal. The best part about that game is that (excuse my French) THEY FUCKING WON THAT GAME! In a shootout, against New York. Take that in for a second. The NHL's record for shots by one team in a game is 83, which the Boston Bruins did in 1941 against the Chicago Blackhawks.

 

(Speaking of large amounts of shots in a game, this is where I'd like to give a massive shoutout to Ben Scrivens and his godly 59-save shutout against the Sharks last week. For Leafs fans like me mourning the loss of this kid, just remember the fact that the guy we got in return for him beat up Ryan Miller, and is also probably even sicker that Scrivens, so there's that.)

 

Stop going off on tangents, you say? Well, okay then, but that means I have to keep talking about the god-forsaken Wranglers.

 

Over the 10 games, Calgary had a total CF% of – wait for it – 28.99%.

 

Here's the NHL's 10 worst teams in terms of CF% (Look to the last column). I'll let you guys work this one out for yourselves. 28.99% is not good.

 

 

To their credit, the Wranglers are slightly better in close and 5v5 situations, with 29.27% and 29.23% CF percentages, respectively. But that's still pretty abysmal.

 

Hey, I found a bright spot (kind of)! The Calgary Wranglers this season have a PDO of 97.7. I've explained PDO several times before, and I'm not going to again, so I'll tell you that 97.7 is terrible. Why is that a bright spot, you ask? Well, a PDO that low (most due to a horrible shooting % of 6.6) actually means that this team may have had pretty awful luck, and that clearer skies could be on the horizon.

 

Of course, that doesn't at all mean that the Wranglers are a playoff team or anything. But I'd like to reassure them that they probably don't have quite as many points as they're capable of. Yay, optimism!

 

Other Notes

 

• I'd really like to point out how much of a gem Henrik Larsson is. As it stands, he has 30 goals and 25 assists for a grand total of 55 points on the season. He's the only Wranglers player who even comes close to being a point-per-game player. He's this team's Taylor Hall, or Matt Moulson (kinda). A star on a terrible team. I think if he was in a different situation, playing with players who don't have names like “DAV C”, he'd probably light it up. And the best part? He's 19 years old! (not at all a knock on Hashtag Manning – cough Broncos suck cough – he's got 37 points, feeding Larsson.)

 

• This is a great opportunity for me to reiterate my point about how dumb it is to think a team with a lot of hits is a “good, physical team”. The Wranglers average the most hits per game in the entire VHL, with 21.72. Obviously, this doesn't mean that they're doing things like this, but if a team has the puck for, on average, less than 30% of the game, as Calgary's Corsi numbers suggest, then it's a simple assumption to make that the team needs to make a lot of hits, to stop the other team having the puck for 100% of the game.

 

• The Wranglers, unfortunately, suck at a lot of things. But one thing they particularly suck hard at is faceoffs. At 33.66%, they have by far the worst faceoff % in the league (the 9^th place Americans have 42.2%.). Maybe, just maybe, if the Wranglers could start with the puck more, they could get more shots!

 

Prediction for the Season

 

I think you can work this one out for yourselves. I'm prepared to bet this shiny Canadian loonie I have in my hand here that the Calgary Wranglers will finish this season last in the VHL. I thoroughly apologize to any Wranglers fans reading this. I really don't have much else to say. This team makes me sad, because Calgary's a great city. I want it to have nice things.

 

And so ends the most depressing installment of Statisically Advanced ever. For next week, I'm going to do a new thing! I'm going to ask you, the reader, to help me pick the team I analyze next week (think of it as a sort of reward for putting up with all my bullshit and sticking with me all the way to here). So, tell me. Which team do you want me to do next? I'm thinking of either the Quebec Meute or HC Dynamo, because it's more fun to do good teams. But up to you!

 

As I say every week, please tell me if I fucked something up! I very much appreciate your feedback!

 

This was a pretty long post, and a sad one, so I'll send you off with a gif of the Almighty, Phil “The Phil” Kessel, dominating his smelling salts.

 

Oh, and Andrew Ladd is a robot now, apparently.

 

Edited February 6, 2014 by Rogueginger

[Fire Tortorella 2,653]

Riga Reign.

 

Ottawa Lynx.

 

No bias whatsoever.

[Rogueginger 7]

Lol are those your suggestions for next week?

[diamond_ace 3,112]

davos

[CowboyinAmerica 2,891]

Yeah, I think Davos would be interesting. I feel like a lot of people weren't expecting them to have the success they did this quickly, and it would be fun to analyze why.

[Victor 10,947]

Homer vote for Davos.

Yes I love DGB, even with the regular jabs at the Sens.

Larsson would more than likely do worse on a better team. The sim is a strange animal.

[Edgar 283]

so... if I understand your MS correctly, they are under performing and we can expect to them make a cup run next season.  Good to know

[Rogueginger 7]

so... if I understand your MS correctly, they are under performing and we can expect to them make a cup run next season.  Good to know

 

Uh... sure.

 

Seriously though, this team is awful, but not quite "only wins 6 games" awful

[Doomsday 4,130]

Content: 3/3 - I had a feeling once Calgary would be covered in this, it would be hysterical. I was not disappointed one bit. Keep up the good work!

 

Grammar: 2/2 - You know, I'm sure you made a couple mistakes, but you had to try to find a reason why Calgary doesn't suck. I can't do anything worse to you than you already went through making this article.

 

Appearance: 1/1 - Always good for some amusing pictures.

 

Overall: 6/6 -

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