Rogueginger 7 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 (edited) Statistically Advanced – Week Five: HC Davos Dynamo Statistically Advanced is a weekly feature which will give an in-depth look at a VHL team, discussing said team's weaknesses and strengths, using fancy "advanced" stats to predict trends. Each week, I'll analyze a different VHL team. Warning: If you hate numbers, this post will likely not be for you. This week will focus on the HC Davos Dynamo. In honour of Valentine's Day, I'd like to take this opportunity to tell you guys how much I love you (The answer is this much). As I'm sure you know, writing last week's post was not very enjoyable. The Wranglers, quite frankly, have sucked this season. So, I basically had to reiterate over and over again that they suck, and that there are very few silver linings. When I asked you guys to pick a team for me to look at, the vast majority of you responded with cries of “Davos!”. HC Dynamo are good at hockey, and therefore a fun team to write about. For this I thank you guys. <3. This has been a fun week, both for writing about and for watching hockey. Because the Olympics started this week, allowing Canadians to return to our great tradition of watching Team Canada hockey games instead of working: So get ready, you're in for a treat, as I get to say good things about a team this week! Team Overview This week I have an interesting advantage in writing about a team: the season's over! This means I have a nice large sample size to see how Dynamo have performed over the whole season, and make predictions for them going into the playoffs. In season 36 of the VHL, Davos have been by far the best team in the European conference, with a 54-16-2 record, good for 110 points. They've been relentless all year, losing consecutive games only once. Still flying high, they've gone 7-3 in the last 10 games of the season. Dynamo are probably the league's best offensive powerhouse (this is why I like writing about good teams – I get to use words like powerhouse). They lead the league in goals for per game with 3.67 (as always, an NHL comparison: the Chicago Blackhawks lead the NHL with 3.3 goals/game). They also lead the VHL in shots per game, with a whopping 42.17 (the Blackhawks have 34.1. Yeah. Take that in). So I hear this team is pretty good, eh? Advanced Trends In the ten games I looked at, Davos went 8-2, with close losses to the Iron Eagles and Legion (both previously featured on Statistically Advanced! Can I say I told you so about Vasteras, now?). In this stretch, Dynamo had a Corsi For% of 61.7%; their Close CF% and 5v5 CF% coming in at 66.2% and 63.27%, respectively. That's absolutely stratospheric. One point I'd like to stress about this team is their sustainability. Their shooting percentage of 8.7% is actually lower than one would think it'd be. What does that mean? Well, it means that there's actually room for Dynamo to score even more goals, and for the shooting % to rise further toward average. Of course, this wouldn't be a Statistically Advanced post without a screengrab from a chart to compare the NHL to this VHL team, so here's the NHL's top 15 team shooting percentages: As you can see, Davos wouldn't even crack the top half of the league. There are some pretty lucky teams up in that top 15, most notably the Leafs, Avalanche, Lightning and Flyers. I'm not entirely sure what my point here is, actually. Maybe I should stop waking up at 2 in the morning to watch the Olympics. Just take it from me, Davos have a relatively low shooting % and could score even more goals if their luck turned a bit. Adding to that, HC Dynamo have a season PDO of 100.2. That's not terrible, but it is sustainable. For reference, and because I love you guys, I've ranked all the VHL teams in terms of PDO and shooting percentage. Surprisingly, after a full season, there are no teams with a PDO above 102, which could just mean that save percentages and shooting % tend to be lower in the VHL than in most other hockey leagues. Anyway, Davos are out of the top 3 in both categories, which is surprising for such an offensively dominant team: This probably means that Dynamo's strategy mostly consists of firing as many shots at the net as possible. As we can see, it's working! Other Notes HC Dynamo may have lots of offensive power, but I don't think they match up to the Legion in terms of defensive strength. They're third in the league in goals against per game, shots against per game, and penalty kill %. Of course, I'm not trying to say they have a weak blue line, just that this team's success is due much more to scoring a lot of goals than to preventing lots of them. (Firewagon hockey is more fun to watch anyway, right?) One criticism I have of this team is that they do seem to have a bit of a discipline issue. Davos have the third-most penalty minutes per game, with 10.92. Fortunately, they have a relatively solid PK, but this is one concern that the team should look into going forward. When I was looking through the gamesheets, it did seem that they were shorthanded a fair amount. Davos's scoring is lead by superstars Davey Jones, Odin Tordahl and Sergey Brovalenko, who rank fourth to sixth, respectively, in points on the season. In 72 games, Jones has 111 points, Tordahl has 106, and Brovalenko has 104. That's pretty good. Something I noticed is that Davos has more players (3) in the top 10 than any other team, understandably. Also interesting is the fact that Davey Jones, team leader in points, centres the team's second line, between Jarkko Olsen and Thomas Landry. This team does play all its lines the same amount, however this does mean that Jones isn't playing with the team's best players. An interesting strategy. (Jones is also on the second powerplay unit, which does play much less than the first). Prediction for the Playoffs Obviously I can't make a prediction for the rest of the season, as the season is over. So, I'll tell you how I predict the playoffs will go for Dynamo. I hate it when sports magazines and blogs do previews, and don't take any risks. So, I'll make an actual prediction for what Dynamo will do in the playoffs. This team absolutely has enough firepower to make it to the finals. Once they're there, it gets more difficult. If they can solve the penalty problem and tighten up ever so slightly on the blueline, they will win the championship (is that bold enough?). If not, well, they still might, but they'll have a tougher time doing it. I'd like that to happen, because Switzerland is great: I don't know why, but I wrote this post while listening to a playlist of the worst songs of all time. Just thought you might like to know that. Got it from this Wikipedia article. So ends the fifth installment of Statistically Advanced. Next week, I'm a bit conflicted about what to do. Should I do another team, and include their recent playoff games in the statistics? Should I do a team that finished out of the playoffs? Or something else? Let me know! As always, if I have a gaping hole in my post, or some other cock-up, please let me know so I can rectify it next time. With that, I will now bow out: (Hahaha get it? Bow! I'm so funny...) Edited February 14, 2014 by Rogueginger Kesler 1 Link to comment https://vhlforum.com/topic/5222-claimedstatistically-advanced-week-five-hc-davos-dynamo/ Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Victor 10,947 Posted February 14, 2014 Admin Share Posted February 14, 2014 You could look at Bratislava, they ran down the VHLM. Or a past dominant team (there's indexes for every VHL season and a list of the best reg.season teams in the Hall of Fame and some single season records in League Discussion). Anyway, another awesome article, pretty much consolidated everything I've noticed about us this season. "This probably means that Dynamo's strategy mostly consists of firing as many shots at the net as possible." Yup, you got me. Link to comment https://vhlforum.com/topic/5222-claimedstatistically-advanced-week-five-hc-davos-dynamo/#findComment-41662 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rogueginger 7 Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 "This probably means that Dynamo's strategy mostly consists of firing as many shots at the net as possible." Yup, you got me. Hey man, whatever works, right? Link to comment https://vhlforum.com/topic/5222-claimedstatistically-advanced-week-five-hc-davos-dynamo/#findComment-41664 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator Baozi 1,658 Posted February 14, 2014 Moderator Share Posted February 14, 2014 Woot Davos! Link to comment https://vhlforum.com/topic/5222-claimedstatistically-advanced-week-five-hc-davos-dynamo/#findComment-41665 Share on other sites More sharing options...
CowboyinAmerica 2,891 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Nice! Always enjoy it. Might be fun to examine a team that wasn't expected to make a playoff run as well (say, Season 31 Davos) and say how they were able to win. Link to comment https://vhlforum.com/topic/5222-claimedstatistically-advanced-week-five-hc-davos-dynamo/#findComment-41833 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doomsday 4,130 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Content: 3/3 - Well sir, you got Davos' offensive strategy to a T there. Scorers are spread over both lines, making either one dangerous. Also, your use of the phrase "cock-up" cracked me the hell up. Grammar: 2/2 - Excellent job considering how lengthy these articles are: Davos have a relatively low shooting % = Davos has a relatively low shooting % gamesheets = game sheets Appearance: 1/1 - Most glorious, sir. Overall: 6/6 - Link to comment https://vhlforum.com/topic/5222-claimedstatistically-advanced-week-five-hc-davos-dynamo/#findComment-42215 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Claimed Link to comment https://vhlforum.com/topic/5222-claimedstatistically-advanced-week-five-hc-davos-dynamo/#findComment-46819 Share on other sites More sharing options...
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