Claimed:Cap Control (NA Conference)

[CowboyinAmerica 2,889]

Cap Control

With Zach Warren

 

 

For 3 seasons, financial analyst Zach Warren of Ernst & Young has been the man behind the mask, handling full salary cap handling duties for the VHL. Entering Season 37, he has decided to look at some of the cap situations of VHL teams a little bit more closely, revealing some of the inside scoop he sees from the teams’ current situations.

 

Most teams (except for Toronto) are under the cap for Season 37. But what about Season 38, 39, or even further into the future? Warren has decided to point out a team from each conference that can fit into three distinct categories: Sitting Pretty (with cap space to grow moving forward), Surprisingly Solid (should not have any major issues moving forward), and Warning Signs (may have some issues in the future).

 

Considering that the North American Conference is expected to be the toughest race this season, Warren has decided to look at that conference first. His cap preview of the European Conference will come next week.

 

Sitting Pretty: New York Americans

 

It’s not too often that a team can add a maximum contract player and still be fine, but that seems to be the case for the New York Americans. Even after adding winger Odin Tordahl and his $5 million guaranteed contract, the New York Americans sit $16,500,000 under the cap, plenty of space to add all of their first round selections, a Teemu Lehtinen, a Felix Zamora, or even a couple of inactive free agents if they decide to make a run.

 

The real key for New York, though, comes with the timing of their rookie contracts. Connor Low will be the first due a prime contract, starting next year, but in all likelihood Tordahl will be the only other player on a more expensive prime contract. Especially with Quebec and Cologne (and Vasteras?) possibly looking to sell after this season, New York would be destination #1 to bring on cap. The year after, Xao, Zadorov, and Wahl will also have prime contracts, but by that time, Tordahl will have moved into his veteran days.

 

Simply put, even with the glut of rookies coming in, GM Chris Miller likely won’t need to make any tough decisions about keeping players until S40 at the earliest. Even if this year’s No. 2 selection (Slaughter or Fjorsstrom) goes on a tear and reaches 550 TPE by S39, he would still only command $3 million from the Americans squad.

 

Sitting Pretty: Toronto Legion

 

The Legion are over cap right now, and they only have five players on the books for next season. How in Rob Ford’s name could they actually be solid?

 

For Toronto, it’s important to remember how many players they have on soon-to-be veteran contracts. There aren’t many S32 draftees that are still active in the VHL, but Toronto seems to have amassed the highest collection of them: Jakub Kjellburg, Chico Salmon, Anatoli Zhumbayev, and Jack Sound. Of those four, AZ’s contract will undoubtedly go down $500,000, and even if the other three move up a TPE bracket, the salary increase would only sit at $250,000 per player.

 

When coupled with no players moving from a rookie to a prime contract — everyone on Toronto’s main roster is S34 or older — it is likely that the team will be able to compete for each of the next two seasons. Then, after LeBeau retires before the S39 season, the team will have some veteran contracts that will be more palatable to teams due to the decreased cap room.

 

Warning Signs: Seattle Bears

 

Don’t get it twisted: The Bears will be fine for each of the next two seasons. The team is already under cap for S37. With Ball’s recent extension, every player in the core is signed through at least S38. And when you couple Ethan Osborne’s $4.5 million coming off the books with James Lefevre and Zack Sound’s slide into veteran contract territory, the Bears should have enough extra funds to offset any TPE gains from their players over the next season. Despite the doubters, their S38 and S39 first round picks are very, very likely to not be lottery picks.

 

However, as demonstrated above, the Legion will also be keeping their core over the next two seasons, and the New York Americans should have space to add next offseason. Thus, it is imperative that the Bears are able to stretch their window of opportunity past just S38... which may be tough to do given the current salaries. In S39, Ball, Olsen, and Weber will all become veteran contracts. However, that same season, both Tyrael and Yumalatopinto are due to become prime contracts, receiving a large payday for the first time.

 

If the Bears try and keep on all five veteran contracts of Lefevre, Sound, Ball, Olsen, and Weber during the S39 season, will they have enough cap space to be able to keep the three prime contracts of Smyl, Tyrael, and Yumalatopinto as well? The answer to that question may come with the players’ TPE earning rate over the next two seasons; if all eight are fully active, keeping all of them in S39 becomes unlikely. However, this could be the best problem to have for GM Greg Harbinson — leveraging older contracts to make room for younger players could be the key to establishing a long-term Seattle dynasty rather than a flash in the pan, even if it means not keeping players until their contracts' end.

[Devise 4,475]

Very interesting read. You constantly have some of the best media spots sir. The "Cap control" nature of competing teams is always interesting. I remember when Quebec added all those pieces everyone speculated they wouldn't have Cap for more than a season and then they had it for three seasons. 

 

The best way usually to micro manage cap is the way Victor is doing it. Keep a blend of young, middle aged, and old players and as your middle aged players begin to turn elite let your older players go. It allows you to keep competing for longer stretches while also still being a solid team. Although if a team loads up to try to compete for one season, teams like this are at risk of simply not being as good due to this strategy. 

[Victor 10,940]

My strategy was actually more like "Shit, I need to build a good team before Moher and Bentley's (and at the time, Stark's, and now I guess Young's) rookie contracts expire." Which I did. Next season I will have no rookie contracts...

[Guest Svoboda_3]

Content: 3/3

912 words. This was a very well-written article. You touched upon the cap situations of some of the North American Conference teams and how they will manage that moving forward. The article was so smooth with next to no mistakes and that always makes for a nice read. I'm interested to know what the European Conference situation is like. Possible part 2?

Grammar: 2/2

I didn't see anything glaringly wrong.

Appearance: 1/1

Looked good from my end.

Overall: 6/6

[Kesler 1,514]

Claimed