Season 65: A Tale of Tiered Teams

[Devise 4,475]

Season 64 went into the books around the middle of the last week. It was a frankly, odd season which saw the Toronto Legion ride hot goalie Stopko and what seemed like an open faucet of team offense to a sweep of the Helsinki Titans in the Continental Cup final. Neither team was really expected to get that deep, as most saw Toronto and Helsinki petering out in the semi's, to the arguably two better teams on paper in Seattle and Riga. However both clubs and at times throughout much of the regular season the match ups, proved that Season 64 had a hidden amount of parity. It is rare to see legitimate Cup arguments made for 5 teams, especially in a 8 team league. 

 

With the VHL expanding in the off-season, adding the Moscow Menace, as well as the generation shift in the guard as the VHL begins to move on from the S50 era of players and the younger guard begins to really take over, S65 will take it's own tone, it's own theme. If we work under the theory that the theme of S64 was parity, then the theme of S65 from my view is going to see a very season where a handful of teams group in a tier, competing with each other, with another handful in one right below them. The strength of drafts and the overall player pool is what lead to expansion, as such a high majority of the VHL teams are not in rebuild. In fact most teams have star power players at multiple positions signed for what appears to be "deeper" runs as teams enter different compete windows. The shell of the parity that S64 brought is might still be alive and in tact, however because some teams have much more strength than others, and some are a bit younger/developing in other key areas, I think it'll be a parity filled season with competition happening inside each of these tiers. 

 

There is still plenty of off-season left of course as free agency isn't set to happen until the end of the week. So there are obviously plenty of teams that could attempt to move or shift. But given the options available, how some of the teams cores are built and what is likely to move/stay. This is how I see the tiers shaking out for Season 65.

 

The Victory Cup/Contender Tier

Riga Reign

Helsinki Titans

Vancouver Wolves

 

The only three teams with much of their competing rosters in tact from last season. Helsinki is young, hungry and getting to the finals last season could be all the proof that club needs. They made a trade already for a shake up, and I imagine are going to be deep in the free agency hunt, especially for a particular name heading into 65. Riga could be a question mark team for this tier, but given the strength of their defense, forward core and goalie it's hard to think they won't be here. Vancouver I think ends up defaulting in regardless if they strengthen their team. They might seem like the outside team looking in but they've been competing for seasons now, younger players are entering more primes, which I think puts them in this tier above some of the younger clubs. 

 

The Wildcard/Question Mark Tier

Seattle Bears

Toronto Legion

New York Americans

HC Davos Dynamo

 

Some might argue that Seattle seems odd on this list and not the contenders, but they could potentially lose a big part of their team this off-season. Given the sheer number of teams who are trying to field players, there is a chance Seattle could sell more pieces this off-season which is why I think they fit more as a question mark. They seem to be one of those in limbo clubs, who may get a more clear direction after free agency. I'd say of the teams on this list however they are the only ones with the capability to jump from this tier, up to the higher one. They simply have the best goalie of this tier, and if things do end up in a position where they are competing hard in 65, they will be a lock for the top 4 spot in standings. Which leaves us with the other three question mark teams. Toronto is fresh off the Cup, but their young goalie situation as well as depleted roster means even with additions, the best they can hope for is a Wildcard. New York and Davos are both question marks though. New York appears to be on the way out of rebuild, but a big free agency/off-season for the other two teams could turn the Wildcard situation into a real hot race, or even arguably have New York looking out. That said, if it's New York who winds up on the better side of the off-season they could very easily platform themselves up to lock down that 5th and final Wildcard spot. Much like we will see a battle for the Victory Cup though, I suspect we'll also see a battle for the wildcard this season as well. 

 

The Rebuilding/Clear Direction Tier

Moscow Menace

Calgary Wranglers

 

I think Moscow is probably the most obvious team here. Expansion team, and while they were able to get a bit more assets than when we expanded last time thanks to a better structured expansion draft, it still wasn't what I'd call field a team over. Moscow is going to obviously build up assets and take a few seasons. It is easy to see them being the leagues worst team next season. Calgary is the more interesting puzzle. This is team that still has Canmore, but I see Bushio trading and retiring Canmore. The more interesting thing for Calgary to me, and why I think they are okay treating this as a rebuilding/growing season is the number of picks they have in this years draft. Three first round picks. Calgary already has a core ranging from S62-S64 and a very good goalie in Brick Wahl. While they could steal games against the three lower tiered teams in the Wildcard tier, I still suspect that they will find themselves on the outside of the playoffs this season. However I do think the clear direction for them will give them the assets and tools to really be scary in S66 and beyond. 

 

 

1000+ words. Using for Rift for PT weeks Feb 11-17, and Feb 18-24. 

Edited February 17, 2019 by Devise