Rogueginger 7 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 (edited) Statistically Advanced - Week Six: New York Americans Statistically Advanced is a weekly feature which will give an in-depth look at a VHL team, discussing said team's weaknesses and strengths, using fancy "advanced" stats to predict trends. Each week, I'll analyze a different VHL team. Warning: If you hate numbers, this post will likely not be for you. This week will focus on the New York Americans. That's right, I'm back! I must apologize, I kind of went AWOL from the VHL for a while, and didn't really tell anyone. But fear not, I have returned! Of course, I do owe you all an explanation. Recently, I've begun writing for a real sports blog (shamless plug for http://truschoolsports.com/. My most recent article is the one comparing Phil Kessel's projections to Mats Sundin's career totals). Anyway, let's get into a new installment of Statistically Advanced! Since the VHL season is so young, I don't have Corsi stats for the Americans this week. I could've held off a while so I had more games to analyze, but I just wanted to get a post out to you guys. Don't worry, there's enough to look at! (Speaking of Corsi, Taylor Hall became one of my favourite NHL players this week when he revealed that he's an advanced stats geek - sorry if that video doesn't work outside of Canada) Since this week is about the New York Americans, this post will probably be freer than any other. And before we start talking about the VHL's most 'Murican team, here's a picture of the most influential American NHLer ever having his jersey retired. Alright, it's good to be back! If you're new to this series I do, you'll probably want to read my first post, which explains some of the things I'll be talking about. Team Overview The Americans are a very interesting team. Last season, they missed the playoffs by 5 points. However, this season they've started hot, and are currently 2nd in the North American Conference. Most people expect that they'll be a bubble team, with a chance to squeeze into a playoff spot. New York made some big changes in the offseason, and have started the season with a notably different (and perhaps improved) lineup. So, the question is, did the Americans' GM make the right moves to turn a bubble team into a contender? Well, that's a very difficult question to answer. Obviously, we haven't seen much of this Amerks (do people call them that? I'm gonna call them that.) group, and so can't be sure how they'll mesh. But, the first 8 games of the season have given us a glimpse of what could be in New York's future. Notes (Since we have no Corsi stats, there's no point in doing an "Advanced Trends" section. All stats will be presented here in the form of quick hits.) Last season, the Americans were quite a solid offensive team. They had the best powerplay in the league, and averaged the second-most shots per game. This was largely due to Conner Low and Simon Tremblay, two absolutely lethal weapons (it's interesting that Low managed 83 points, despite being a defenseman). Staying on the theme of last year for a while, it's also worth mentioning that the Amerks' Achilles heel was undoubtedly defense. They were 8th in the league in goals against. Their penalty kill was brutal. They regularly allowed over 35 shots per game. New York were 2nd in hits, which definitely implies that they didn't have the puck a whole lot. Finally, this team's faceoff stats were abysmal; 9th in the league, winning 40.96% of all draws. One last point about Season 36. You should all know that I hate plus/minus as a stat, and rarely consider it to be a good indicator of anything. However, you can make inferences from a particularly good or bad rating. Last season, the Americans had three players with a +/- worse than -40. Compare this to the worst +/- players in the NHL: Obviously, you'll notice that these guys aren't scrubs. That just proves that +/- is stupid as an indicator of player success. However, you'll also see that most of the teams those players play for are either terrible (sorry, Edmonton and Buffalo) or allow a lot of goals. The Americans allow a LOT of goals. (Interestingly, 2 of the 3 -40 players are no longer members of the New York Americans. A good sign of change!) Speaking of players no longer being in New York, some of you may be surprised to learn that, of the 18 skaters with the Amerks, 5 of them are new for this season. Quite a refreshing amount of turnover. It's clear that management in New York is trying to get this team off the ground. New stars like (former Davos player) Odin Tordahl will certainly help! Last season, New York struggled a bit with goaltending. Starter Brick Wahl wasn't quite a... brick wall, per se. However, in the short sample we've seen him in this year, he's been rock solid. He's upped his save percentage from .911 to .938, which is a huge leap. If he can maintain that for an extended period of time, the Americans will have an opportunity to win many more games. The Americans are still getting a hell of a lot of shots, averaging about 38 per game. Their shooting percentage is low, at only 6.8%, so it won't surprise me if their production increases as the season progresses. As it stands now, it looks like they've sacrificed some of their offensive firepower for defensive stability, but that could be largely due to some unfortunate puck luck. Speaking of puck luck, how could we have a Statistically Advanced article without mentioning PDO? Last season's Americans finished with a PDO of 99. This season, they've improved to 100.7. That would suggest that the level they're playing at now is probably a more accurate representation of this team's potential. So, I think New York will be better than they were in S36. Prediction for the Season The Americans are definitely a team I'll be keeping an eye on as S37 progresses. I think, if Wahl can be a better goaltender than he was last season, and the team's stars (Low, Tremblay, Tordahl) continue to impress, then New York will be a playoff team. I really don't think it would be a stretch to say I can definitely see them sneaking into the postseason in the 3rd or 2nd spot in their Conference. And I'd love that to happen, because who doesn't love freedom? Hell yeah, Murica! Oh, I almost forgot. Before I end this, I'm obligated to take this opportunity to laugh at the Vancouver Canucks. Hahahahahahaha! You gave up 7 goals in one period! Ha! (For those who don't know what I'm talking about, here.) Wow, so that's what it's like to write one of these. I'd almost forgotten. Anyway, I like getting you guys to pick my next team. Who should I look at next? I've made a poll on this post, so vote there! As always, please call me out if I said anything stupid or wrong. Let me know! I appreciate all feedback! I know this week's article wasn't as good as some of the other ones, but don't worry. I'll be back with better content! It's just a little tough to find time for these. Let me know what you thought in the comments! You can also reach me on twitter ' class="bbc_url">@charlieocc where I'll mostly be complaining about the Maple Leafs. Edited March 14, 2014 by Rogueginger BOOM 1 Link to comment https://vhlforum.com/topic/6086-claimedstatistically-advanced-week-six-new-york-americans/ Share on other sites More sharing options...
RomanesEuntDomus 442 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Great read as always, love those articles Rogueginger 1 Link to comment https://vhlforum.com/topic/6086-claimedstatistically-advanced-week-six-new-york-americans/#findComment-53460 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Victor 10,940 Posted March 14, 2014 Admin Share Posted March 14, 2014 Why is Seattle so damn terrible? Link to comment https://vhlforum.com/topic/6086-claimedstatistically-advanced-week-six-new-york-americans/#findComment-53468 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Megster 63 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 good read, I'm sad we couldn't have corsi in this one I'm a corsi nerd Link to comment https://vhlforum.com/topic/6086-claimedstatistically-advanced-week-six-new-york-americans/#findComment-53584 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doomsday 4,129 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Content: 3/3 - The Americans absolutely are a dangerous team this season, but what's truly scary is with how young this team is, the more the season goes on, the better they'll get. They could have been a playoff team last season too, but through good fortune they missed out and instead got another lottery pick out of it, allowing them to add even more power. Watch out for the Americans, VHL! Grammar: 2/2 - For how long your pieces are, they're pretty well done grammatically. Only a couple really, really nitpicky things. shamless = shameless If you're new to this series I do, = ? powerplay = power play faceoff = face-off Appearance: 1/1 - USA! USA! USA! Overall: 6/6 - You done good. Link to comment https://vhlforum.com/topic/6086-claimedstatistically-advanced-week-six-new-york-americans/#findComment-54228 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Claimed Link to comment https://vhlforum.com/topic/6086-claimedstatistically-advanced-week-six-new-york-americans/#findComment-57014 Share on other sites More sharing options...
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