DMaximus' S70 Playoff Predictions

[DMaximus 1,046]

An exciting season is coming down to the end. I’m going to use some advanced metrics to forecast the playoffs.

Here’s the Fenwick data for each team, sorted by Fenwick percentage. Fenwick is the tally of all non-blocked shot attempts in a game. 

 

Team Name	Fenwick For	Fenwick Against	Fenwick Total	Fenwick For Pct
Vancouver Wolves	63.661	48.000	15.661	56.879
Moscow Menace	58.952	48.629	10.323	54.954
Seattle Bears	56.435	48.710	7.726	53.611
Calgary Wranglers	53.968	48.968	5.000	52.895
D.C. Dragons	51.623	48.475	3.148	51.846
Helsinki Titans	51.516	51.065	0.452	50.643
New York Americans	50.065	49.790	0.274	50.340
Prague Phantoms	53.113	54.758	-1.645	49.380
Riga Reign	47.597	52.258	-4.661	47.748
Toronto Legion	47.164	56.098	-8.934	45.993
Malmo Nighthawks	40.323	52.484	-12.161	43.706
HC Davos Dynamo	39.677	54.952	-15.274	41.971
Grand Total	51.179	51.179	0.000	50.000

 

 

Predicting the playoff matchups is a little difficult this season because there’s so much still in flux. Here’s the current standings for the North American Conference:

 

North American Conference
PO	Team	GP	W	L	OTL	P	GF	GA	Diff	PCT
1	Vancouver Wolves	62	41	16	5	87	193	143	50	0.702
2	Calgary Wranglers	62	34	21	7	75	161	155	6	0.605
3	Seattle Bears	62	34	22	6	74	161	146	15	0.597
4	New York Americans	62	31	24	7	69	150	159	-9	0.556
5	D.C. Dragons	61	30	24	7	67	159	155	4	0.549
6	Toronto Legion	61	20	30	11	51	138	181	-43	0.418

 

Vancouver has essentially clinched the #1 seed and appropriately so, they have the top offense, creating the most shot opportunities (63.661) and allowing the fewest (48.000). Their numbers are very similar to last year, which may or may not provide optimism to the Wolves faithful.

New York and D.C. are in a battle to see who can claim the final playoff spot and face the Wolves in the first round. The advanced metric data slightly favors D.C. at the moment, but it’s so close that we might not know who’s in and out until the last game of the season. Circle game 403 on your calendar where D.C plays at New York.

Seattle should be able to move past Calgary into the #2 spot, but regardless if they do or not the opening round matchup will reignite the heated rivalry between Calgary and Seattle.

 

1^st Round Matchups

Vancouver vs. New York/D.C.

                It doesn’t really matter to Vancouver who they face in the first round. They have controlled both teams throughout the season. Their Fenwick percentage is slightly better vs. New York (57.570 vs. 56.745 against D.C.), so they might prefer to face the Americans. But Vancouver should easily win in a best of 7 against either team.

Calgary vs. Seattle

                For as close as they are in the standings, Seattle has dominated Calgary during the regular season. The have a higher Fenwick percentage against Calgary (57.805) than Vancouver has against either of their prospective first round opponents. In fact, Seattle play better against Calgary than they do against the last place teams in each conference. One caveat worth noting, they have only played each other twice the season so far. A lot more data will be available from their 3 remaining games this season. Regardless, Seattle should feel very comfortable going into this matchup and win easily.

 

2^nd Round Matchup

Vancouver vs. Seattle

                This is a nightmare matchup for Vancouver. Seattle is the only team to have a positive Fenwick total against Vancouver. Seattle’s Fenwick total against Vancouver is a 5.2 with a Fenwick percentage of 52.466. Could this be a rehash of last year with Seattle taking down a seemingly unstoppable Vancouver team? The metrics support that and give Seattle a chance at winning a 3^rd straight cup.

 

 

Let’s take a look at the European Conference.

European Conference
PO	Team	GP	W	L	OTL	P	GF	GA	Diff	PCT
1	Z -Moscow Menace	62	44	13	5	93	219	157	62	0.75
2	Riga Reign	62	31	25	6	68	168	169	-1	0.548
3	Helsinki Titans	62	31	26	5	67	181	166	15	0.54
4	Prague Phantoms	62	27	26	9	63	157	179	-22	0.508
5	Malmo Nighthawks	62	29	29	4	62	147	154	-7	0.5
6	HC Davos Dynamo	62	19	36	7	45	115	185	-70	0.363

 

Moscow have already locked up the top seed and are the overwhelming favorites to be the European representative in the Continental Cup finals. The next 4 teams are very close in the standings. We could realistically see any order once the season is over. Based on the metrics, it seems like Helsinki will ultimately finish in 2^nd place, but the rest is anyone’s guess. Obviously, Riga has an advantage because they are 5 points clear of Prague and 6 points ahead of Malmo, with only 10 games left, that is a lot of ground to make up for either of those teams. That means Riga is likely to end up in 3^rd. Prague and Malmo will dual it out for the right to face Moscow. Watch game 409 between the two teams.

 

1^st Round Matchups

Moscow vs. Prague/Malmo

                For as dominant as Moscow has been, they have some weak spots against some teams. Prague had a strong showing in their one game against Moscow so far, we’ll learn a lot more how those two teams matchup as they face each other 4 more times before the end of the season. There’s a lot more data between Malmo and Moscow as they’ve faced each other 9 times this season. Moscow has completely dominated Malmo going 8-1 in the regular season with a Fenwick percentage of 61.823. You can bet Moscow is rooting for Malmo to hop over Prague and claim that final playoff spot. Expect Moscow to win against either team, but pay attention to their remaining games against Prague as an indicator for how that series might go.

Helsinki vs. Riga

                Riga is an odd team this season. They haven’t played any team well except for Davos, Malmo, and Moscow. Wait, Moscow?! Yes, although they lost all 4 games against Moscow, they have a Fenwick total of 12 with a percentage of 55.875. If somehow Riga ends up facing Moscow, be ready for an epic upset. Unfortunately for Riga, it appears like their opponent is going to be Helsinki, a team they have not played well against this season. Helsinki’s Fenwick percentage against Riga is 57.689, that’s better than Vancouver’s percentage against either of their possible opponents! Helsinki should be able to sink Riga fairly easily.

 

2^nd Round Matchup

Moscow vs. Helsinki

                Moscow would be extremely happy to see Helsinki in the 2^nd round. In their 5 games this season, Moscow has a Fenwick percentage of 61.422, their highest against any team not named Davos or Malmo. If this is the matchup, Moscow cruises easily into the finals. Moscow would be much less excited to see Prague or Riga here, as they currently have a negative Fenwick total against either team.

 

Finals Matchup

Moscow vs. Seattle

                This would be a great finals between two closely matched teams. They split the season series 3-3 with Moscow having a slight edge with a Fenwick percentage of 51.293. It’s anyone’s guess who would actually win.

                The only team that has an edge over Vancouver is Seattle, so if Vancouver makes it here, expect them to win it all.

 

1,236 words will claim for 2 weeks.

[Banackock 8,220]

DA BEARZ

[DMaximus 1,046]

2nd week claim... I got more wrong than I got right. At least I predicted Seattle beating Vancouver.