A Comparative Look Back At The S89 Season Preview

[dstevensonjr 402]

Hello, and with Season 89 coming to a close, it's time to take a look back at how the season played out relative to my projections from the start of the season.

 

VHL

 

Finishing order by conference (Projected Conference rank in brackets):

 

North American Conference

1. Seattle Bears (2nd)

2. Vancouver Wolves (1st)

3. Calgary Wranglers (4th)

4. Los Angeles Stars (3rd)

5. New York Americans (5th)

6. Chicago Phoenix (6th)

7. D.C. Dragons (8th)

8. Toronto Legion (7th)

 

Seattle Bears

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 3rd

S89 Actual Rank: 2nd

One line thought from projection: Can Seattle overcome their concerns in net?

What actually happened?: Not sure if I just misread the roster, but Cole Pearce with a TPA over 1100 was the answer in net for Seattle this season. The Bears gave up the second fewest goals in the VHL, while scoring the third most. That combination led to a tie for best goal differential in the VHL at +66. Tavish DeGroot led the way offensively with 45 goals, while Randy Bobandy piled up 71 assists.

 

Vancouver Wolves

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 1st

S89 Actual Rank: 5th

One line thought from projection: It's going to be a dominant season for Vancouver this year, I see a lot of awards, both individual and team coming to them.

What actually happened?: The Wolves were good in the regular season, but they weren't as dominant as I expected. Finishing the season with the 5th most goals for and 6th fewest goals against helped them to the 5th best goal differential at +39. Standout goal scoring from Nico Pearce (44 goals), and playmaking from the blueline from defense Brian Payne (68 assists) and Pierre Emile Bouchard (63 assists) helped drive the offense for Vancouver.

 

Calgary Wranglers

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 9th

S89 Actual Rank: 7th

One line thought from projection: Will Calgary's elite forwards be enough to carry this team to a playoff spot?

What actually happened?: The Wranglers combined mid-pack rankings in goals for and goals against to a +5 goal differential and a playoff spot in the East. Leandro Goncalves led the league in shots, and finished 8th in points with 94. Vincent Laroche-Gagnier put up 40 goals and 40 assists, taking a massive jump from last season.

 

Los Angeles Stars

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 8th

S89 Actual Rank: 8th

One line thought from projection: LA leads the fight for the rest of the pack in NA, can they topple the top 2 teams?

What actually happened?: The Stars didn't topple the top 2 teams, but they did hold onto a spot in the Wild Card playoff. A dominant offensive season from Sirdsvaldis Miglaskems aided in that pursuit, finishing with 50 goals and 57 assists, good enough for 4th in the league in points and 2nd in goals. LA finished midpack in goals for and goals against, and the 7th best goal differential.

New York Americans

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 12th

S89 Actual Rank: 12th

One line thought from projection: Can New York stay afloat in the bottom half of the weaker North American Conference and stay in a playoff spot?

What actually happened?: Exactly that. Despite finishing in the bottom half of the league in the standings, and a -24 goal differential, the Americans broke their playoff drought with a spot in the Wild Card playoff (and an eventual monumental upset). Jasper Davis led all VHL rookies in points with 62, a 14 point gap over the second highest scoring rookie. This contribution, along with a balanced attack offensively helped the Americans into the playoffs.

 

Chicago Phoenix

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 13th

S89 Actual Rank: 13th

One line thought from projection: Chicago is paying the price for being competitive with some older players, do they sell off the vets at the deadline?

What actually happened?: The Phoenix did not make any deadline deals, which will harm the future. Finishing in the bottom 5 in goals for, goals against, and goal differential is an indicator of how this season went. The Phoenix top goal scorer (34) and point getter (78) was PJ Daniels. A strong effort in net from Alexander Minion (.927 SV%, 2.85 GAA) is a positive moving forward.

 

D.C. Dragons

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 15th

S89 Actual Rank: 14th

One line thought from projection: The Dragons should help bolster their already deep prospect pool this season with the most draft picks in the S90 draft.

What actually happened?: D.C. definitely added more value for the upcoming draft, as another 1st and 2nd round pick got added to that group. This gives D.C. 11 picks in this draft (2 1sts, 3 2nds, 3 3rds, 3 4ths). The Dragons also had the 2nd (Mark Calaway) and 4th (Eric Queefson) highest point producing rookies in the VHL this season. The future is very bright for the D.C. Dragons.

 

Toronto Legion

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 14th

S89 Actual Rank: 15th

One line thought from projection: With 4 players from the S86 draft or later and a deep prospect pool, how long does it take Toronto to get into the mix at the top?

What actually happened?: The young players are progressing, but it will take another season before the big dividends pay off. The Legion finished at the bottom of the goals for ranks, but helped offset that with the 5th fewest goals against. This came in large part due to the emergence of goaltender Joel Castle, who posted a .930 SV% and a 2.48 GAA. Continued scoring development from the younger players will bring a more competitive Toronto team next season.

European Conference

1. Moscow Menace (1st)

2. HC Davos Dynamo (4th)

3. Riga Reign (2nd)

4. Prague Phantoms (5th)

5. London United (3rd)

6. Malmo Nighthawks (8th)

7. Warsaw Predators (7th)

8. Helsinki Titans (6th)

 

Moscow Menace

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 2nd

S89 Actual Rank: 1st

One line thought from projection: Can Moscow's elite goaltending be the difference this season and propel them to the top of the league standings?

What actually happened?: Yes, it definitely can. Moscow gave up the fewest goals in the league this season on the way to a 104 point season. A league best goal differential of +66 was the result of solid goaltending and the 4th best goals for in the VHL. A season of dominance offensively for the top group saw Ronan Lavelle (115), Hammar Voss (106), and Tomas Sogaard (100) all finish in the top 7 in points. Lavelle also led the league in goals scored with 56.

 

HC Davos Dynamo

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 6th

S89 Actual Rank: 3rd

One line thought from projection: With a team that is slightly above average at most positions, will that be enough to make HC Davos a playoff team in Europe?

What actually happened?: 6 players finishing with more than 70 points and a solid goaltending performance from Lachlan Summers led to the Dynamo posting the 2nd best record in the European Conference, and the 3rd best record overall. The depth across the scoring paid off, and James Teekirque and Mason Jones both potted 40 goals, with Pete Mitchell not far behind with 39. The scoring was facilitated by Jake Thunder, who had 78 assists, third best in the league. This all added up to Davos leading the VHL in goals for, and a third ranked goal differential of +53. 

 

Riga Reign

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 4th

S89 Actual Rank: 4th

One line thought from projection: With the projection where it is, can Riga make the jump into the league's elite in a very tough Conference after being mid-pack last season?

What actually happened?: Insert Pam Beesley saying "Yup". The Reign did just that, jumping up to the 4th best record in the VHL. Riga finished just a goal behind Davos for the goals for lead, and was a +50 overall. That offense was driven by a pair of players who eclipsed the century mark in points, Brian Kowalski (108), and The Frenchman (100). Kowalski led all VHL defense in points, and had the second most assists in the league.

Prague Phantoms

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 7th

S89 Actual Rank: 6th

One line thought from projection: Can Prague recapture the magic from last season to be the best team in the regular season in the VHL again?

What actually happened?: Not quite, though the Phantoms did stay in a playoff spot. Prague finished with the 6th most goals scored, and the 5th most goals against, making for an entertaining and high scoring brand of hockey. The Phantoms did quite a bit of their scoring at even strength, which led to having 5 players in the top 7 in plus/minus. John Jameson was a force offensively, finishing second in the league with 114 points, third in the league with 50 goals, and fifth in the league with 533 shots.

 

London United

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 5th

S89 Actual Rank: 9th

One line thought from projection: London has the elite talent to be competitive in the tough European Conference, will the lack of defensive depth hold them back?

What actually happened?: The opposite ended up being the issue. London gave up the third fewest goals in the league, and was solid defensively. Offensively, it was another story. Finishing with the 6th fewest goals in the league meant that London had to play tight games on a nightly basis. Igor Molotov led the way up front with 82 points, and four more players finished above 60. With a bit of an older group of skaters, the United will need to find some more offensive punch.

 

Malmo Nighthawks

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 16th

S89 Actual Rank: 10th

One line thought from projection: This is a rough Conference to be at the bottom because there are a lot of good teams, but that might help lock up the first overall pick.

What actually happened?: Definitely not a first overall pick team. The Nighthawks held their own in a tough conference, finishing just 8 points back of a Wild Card spot. A breakout performance in net from Ash Sparks in their first full season as a starter (.931 SV%, 2.49 GAA) helped keep Malmo competitive on a nightly basis. Malmo also had 2 rookies finish in the top 7 in points (Reese McFleury - 46, Viktor Jensen - 33), which will be a big help moving forward.

Warsaw Predators

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 11th

S89 Actual Rank: 11th

One line thought from projection: With a tough Conference battle for the playoffs, does Warsaw sell off their S81/82 forwards at the deadline for even more picks?

What actually happened?: The Preds didn't add to an already impressive group of draft picks for the 90/91 drafts, electing to hang on to their vets. One of those vets, Girts Galvins paced Warsaw offensively with 37 goals and 37 assists. They also saw another veteran, Mikhail Kovalchuk, finish second in the VHL in powerplay goals with 14.

 

Helsinki Titans

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 10th

S89 Actual Rank: 16th

One line thought from projection: Can Helsinki defend their way to a playoff spot with some opportunistic scoring?

What actually happened?: The Titans traded one of their top D near the deadline, and it adds to a growing pile of draft picks for Helsinki. The Titans finished second last in goals for, and last in goals against. That's partly a product of playing in a tough conference overall, and partly just where they're at on the development cycle. It's going to be a bright future for the Titans with the younger roster players and draft picks.

 

Overall thoughts for the VHL from Projections

There is definitely a disparity in team rank this season in the VHL between the European Conference and the North American Conference. Europe boasts 5 of the top 7, and 7 of the top 11 ranked teams, so it should be interesting to see how that plays out in terms of inter-Conference matchups. Will Vancouver and Seattle run away with North America? As the 1st and 3rd ranked teams overall, having a gap between them and the rest of NA certainly seems likely. With 10 teams making the playoffs overall (including play-ins), somebody in the European Conference that is ranked in the top 10 overall is going to end up missing the playoffs.

 

Overall thoughts for the VHL after Season

The European Conference did indeed stay top heavy, finishing with 7 of the top 11 teams. Seattle ran away with the top spot in the North American Conference, finishing 14 points ahead of Vancouver. The Wolves were 5 points ahead of Calgary, so it's not quite a runaway for both teams at the top. London (9th overall) lost the Wild Card play in, while Malmo (10th overall) missed the playoffs entirely, showing just how tough Europe was. I'm pretty happy with most of my projections, definitely missed on Malmo and Helsinki though.

 

VHLE

 

1. Istanbul Red Wolves (4th)

2. Geneva Rush (6th)

3. Cologne Express (1st)

4. Oslo Storm (2nd)

5. Rome Gladiators (3rd)

6. Bratislava Watchmen (5th)

7. Vasteras Iron Eagles (7th)

8. Stockholm Vikings (8th)

 

Istanbul Red Wolves

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 4th

S89 Actual Rank: 1st

One line thought from projection: Much like Rome, can Istanbul use their forward talent to cover for their defense and make the jump to the top group?

What actually happened?: The Red Wolves added throughout the season, including top defender Tord Yvel. Those additions helped propel Istanbul to the best record in the E. The Red Wolves saw 2 forwards (Steve Lattimer - 104, Legacy Gaming - 100) break the hundred point barrier this season, while trade addition Yvel finished second in the E in assists. This all added up to a +88 goal differential, best in the league. 

 

Geneva Rush

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 6th

S89 Actual Rank: 2nd

One line thought from projection: After finishing with the best record last season, is this a rapid retool for Geneva that could get them competitive again quickly?

What actually happened?: The Rush's young players developed strongly throughout the season, contributing to the second highest scoring offense in the league. A monster season out of Ellis Woolfenden that saw top 10 finishes in goals, assists, points, shots, game winning goals, and plus minus helped pace the strong offense for Geneva. Combining that offense with a goalie tandem that had save percentages of .924 and .925 was a recipe for success for the Rush.

 

Cologne Express

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 1st

S89 Actual Rank: 3rd

One line thought from projection: Will Cologne's impressive depth and goaltending help them overcome potential top of the lineup scoring shortages?

What actually happened?: Yep. The Express added midway through the season to add to the group that they had, and it resulted in a lot of scoring. The highest scoring offense in the league thanks to 6 players with 79 points or more, Cologne's potent offense paired well with the strong goaltending of Justin Lion (.929 SV%, 2.19 GAA). The express used those strengths to have the league's second best goal differential at +82.

 

Oslo Storm

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 2nd

S89 Actual Rank: 4th

One line thought from projection: Another powerhouse team, can the balance across this roster help Oslo win a title?

What actually happened?: The Storm stayed stingy in net and on the back end all season, finishing with the second lowest goals against in the E. While this was a strength, the scoring across the lineup didn't develop as well as expected, leaving Oslo in the bottom half of the league in goals for. The Storm did get a strong offensive performance out of Alexander Stroheim this season, finishing fifth in goals, eighth in assists, and second in points in the league.

 

Rome Gladiators

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 3rd

S89 Actual Rank: 5th

One line thought from projection: Does Rome have the ability to outscore their defensive woes and turn the Top 2 into the Big 3?

What actually happened?: The Gladiators scoring was a strength, but the defending was a bigger weakness. Ranking fourth in goals for, Rome boasted three players in the top seven in points in the E. Hannibal Barca put up 75 assists and 108 points to lead the league in both categories, while BjorkaBjorn BjornaBjorkson scored 49 goals to tie for the league lead. Finishing third worst in goals against was the larger issue for Rome, and part of the reason why they couldn't crack the top half of the standings.

 

Bratislava Watchmen

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 5th

S89 Actual Rank: 6th

One line thought from projection: A team caught in the middle between the past and the future, does Bratislava have enough youth to develop throughout the season and surprise this year?

What actually happened?: The youth movement will have to wait for another season. The Watchmen were caught in between the bottom teams and the top teams on a bit of an island this season, both in the standings and in the team statistics. With aging bodies on their way out the door after this season, Bratislava will need an influx of young talent to fill those holes left by the veterans. A few S89 draft players look to be moving forward or already on the roster, they'll need to be the ones to step up.

 

Vasteras Iron Eagles

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 7th

S89 Actual Rank: 7th

One line thought from projection: Can the active younger players on the roster develop fast enough this season to play a bit of spoiler by the end?

What actually happened?: The Iron Eagles moved multiple players out the door this season with an eye on the future. That future now doesn't exist with this current group with the contraction coming. 

 

Stockholm Vikings

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 8th

S89 Actual Rank: 8th

One line thought from projection: Can Stockholm turn it around moving forward by adding to their prospect pool and bringing more players up?

What actually happened?: No. 3 wins on the season is about all that can be said for Stockholm. Contraction is also coming for this current roster.

 

Overall thoughts for the VHLE from Projections

It really feels like the VHLE has teams paired together across the standings. Cologne and Oslo seem pretty stacked at the top, Rome and Istanbul feel like they're just a little behind that first group, Bratislava and Geneva could join that pairing with the right development across the season, and Vasteras and Stockholm are hoping for some magic. I think it will make for a fascinating season to see if it does indeed play out in clumps like that, or whether there is a shakeup throughout the season. Lots to be excited about in the E!

 

Overall thoughts for the VHLE after Season

Istanbul separated themselves from the rest of the league, thanks to a league best 105 points, 9 more than the next closest. The next group of Geneva/Cologne/Oslo/Rome was much closer, with just 6 points separating those 4 teams. Bratislava ended up in between those teams and the bottom ones. Vasteras had a rough year, but at least it wasn't as rough as Stockholm.

 

VHLM

 

Projected finishing order by conference:

 

Western Conference

1. Houston Bulls (1st)

2. San Diego Marlins (4th)

3. Mexico City Kings (2nd)

4. Saskatoon Wild (5th)

5. Las Vegas Aces (3rd)

 

Houston Bulls

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 2nd

S89 Actual Rank: 2nd

One line thought from projection: Could be the most entertaining team in the M to watch this season, should be a few high scoring games.

What actually happened?: Development and additions made the Bulls blueline much stronger than when it started, and the offense was just as potent as expected. This resulted in a lot of high scoring games, but mostly for Houston only. Finishing the season with the third most goals for and the second fewest goals against meant quite a few lopsided wins for the Bulls. All of this was done despite not having a player finish in the top 10 in the league in points, which is a testament to the strong depth. 8 players finished the season with more than 50 points, with Severus Targaryen leading the way with 83.

 

San Diego Marlins

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 7th

S89 Actual Rank: 3rd

One line thought from projection: Can the young rookies develop quick enough to make San Diego's top talent even better?

What actually happened?: Yes, it absolutely can. Strong contributions throughout the season from multiple forwards set the Marlins up for a very strong regular season, one which saw them score the second most goals in the M. Brad Marchand led the VHLM in goals, tied for the lead in points, and finished tied for seventh in assists to pace the offense for the Marlins. The largest revelation for the Marlins was goaltender Clark, who developed exceptionally quickly throughout the course of the regular season, and was a large reason for their success in the back half of the season.

 

Mexico City Kings

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 3rd

S89 Actual Rank: 4th

One line thought from projection: Can Mexico City's depth and above average roster give everybody a battle at the top of the West?

What actually happened?: Not quite, unfortunately. While the Kings had a strong season, they weren't able to push their way into the group at the top of the conference with Houston and San Diego. Mexico City finished with the fifth most goals for, and the fourth fewest goals against, making them a tough team to play every game. Carrying the bulk of the offense was Carson Walker Jr., who finished fifth in goals and points in the VHLM, along with the second most shots.

 

Saskatoon Wild

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 9th

S89 Actual Rank: 9th

One line thought from projection: Can the young group develop fast enough to hang around the playoff race?

What actually happened?: Not quite quick enough to get into the playoff race this season, but the future is bright for Saskatoon. A pair of 78 point seasons from Jorji Costova and Ontario Leblanc Jr, who were both playing their first full seasons in the VHLM is an encouraging sign. Goaltender Joseph Reed will likely fare better with a stronger roster in front of them next season, one that could push their way up the standings quickly with the right development.

 

Las Vegas Aces

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 4th

S89 Actual Rank: 10th

One line thought from projection: Maximizing the opportunities for their best forwards is a recipe for success for Vegas, can they defend well enough to capitalize?

What actually happened?: The Aces cleared out a good chunk of the roster midseason, which led to a rough second half. With 2 firsts in the upcoming draft, Las Vegas will look to add to their prospect group and attempt to regroup after the late season tear down this year.

 

Eastern Conference

1. Philadelphia Reapers (1st)

2. Mississauga Hounds (2nd)

3. Halifax 21st (4th)

4. Ottawa Lynx (3rd)

5. Miami Marauders (5th)

 

Philadelphia Reapers

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 1st

S89 Actual Rank: 1st

One line thought from projection: Will Philadelphia give up fewer goals in a month than some teams do in a week?

What actually happened?: The Reapers main strength ended up being at the other end of the ice. While Philly was strong defensively, giving up the third fewest goals against this season, it was the offense leading the league in goals for that drove the Reapers monster season this year. That combination led to a league best +84 goal differential, and kept Philly firmly ahead in the standings. Big years out of Axle Gunner, LeBen Aky, Anthony Simmons, and Tyler Swift had all four players ranked in the top 10 in points in the M.

 

Mississauga Hounds

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 5th

S89 Actual Rank: 5th

One line thought from projection: Is the solid forward group enough to put Mississauga in the conversation with Philadelphia for best in the East?

What actually happened?: The Hounds put up a solid offense, finishing fourth in the M in scoring. It wasn't enough to get them within striking distance of first in the East, however it did keep them firmly locked in the second seed. As a team that finished giving up the sixth most goals, and a +2 goal differential, Mississauga stayed comfortable all season. Standout performances from Dominik Kopecky and Catia Goncalves had them both in the top 10 in the league in points, with Goncalves leading the league in shots.

 

Halifax 21st

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 8th

S89 Actual Rank: 6th

One line thought from projection: A lot of good on the Halifax roster, can they turn into great with a solid development run and an add on the blueline?

What actually happened?: The 21st added midseason, but it wasn't to the blueline. The offense was decent, finishing with the sixth most goals for, but it was undone on the back end by giving up the fourth most goals against. A solid season offensively for Miroslav, finishing with the fourth most points and fifth most assists in the M was a shining area of the Halifax offense.

 

Ottawa Lynx

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 6th

S89 Actual Rank: 7th

One line thought from projection: A team with 6 S90 draft picks in the lineup, if they can develop quickly they could do some damage this year.

What actually happened?: The S90 picks developed well enough that the Lynx got into a playoff spot, and stayed there all season. A team that is primed for a big season next year if those S90's come back, especially on the blueline and in net. The strength of the Ottawa season was in those areas, where the Lynx gave up the fifth fewest goals in the league, getting stronger in that area as the season went on. Unfortunately, that came at the sacrifice of offense as Ottawa finished second last in goals for, only seeing one player surpass the 60 point mark (the ever handsome Harry Callahan, 70 points).

 

Miami Marauders

S89 Projected Overall Rank: 10th

S89 Actual Rank: 8th

One line thought from projection: A couple of pieces and this roster would be much closer to average, but as it stands right now, it's going to be a tough one in Miami.

What actually happened?: The Marauders added along the way this season, and it paid off with a playoff spot at the end. Between trades to accumulate draft picks and waiver signings to replace what was traded away, Miami has put themselves in a great position for the future with many younger players. I expect big things out of Miami next season.

 

Overall thoughts for the VHLM

Much like the VHLE, it feels like there are clusters of teams in the VHLM. I believe that there are three distinct tiers in the league, with Philadelphia/Houston/Mexico City in the first tier, Las Vegas/Ottawa/Mississauga/San Diego in the second tier, and Halifax/Saskatoon/Miami in the third tier. I'm sure that there will be shuffling throughout those groups this season, especially with the likely high level of development that is usually seen in the VHLM and potential trades. It should be an entertaining year to see who can drag somebody out of that top tier.

 

Overall thoughts for the VHLM after Season

Missed the boat huge on San Diego and Miami. San Diego jumped right up into that top tier of teams, evidenced by their late season run of success where they were the hottest team for the last few weeks. Miami's midseason additions made them a much better team than first predicted. The league definitely stayed in tiers though, just some of the teams shuffled around. 

 

Thank you for reading this, if you've made it this far, you deserve some kind of medal.

 

It was a fun season, and I'm looking forward to S90!

[AJW 2,157]

Loved reading these throughout the season! 

[BOOM 8,758]

Nice review.

[Spartan 4,408]

What a great season review, fantastic work!

[jacobcarson877 2,541]

This is incredible

[dstevensonjr 402]

2000+ Words Week 2

[dstevensonjr 402]

2000+ Words Week 3

[dstevensonjr 402]

2000+ Words Week 4

[N0HBDY 1,119]

@Gustav Man out wrote you