Dispelling a Playoff Myth

[Victor 11,009]

There seems to be a terrible misconception in the VHL that a 3-1 lead in the playoffs is not a good thing. I am here to prove that this is not the case.

This is a 590 because it's not good enough to be a MS or interesting enough to be a mag article.

Anyway, I have looked at all seasons since S27. Why S27? Because that is roughly when people started to doubt leads. Up to the mid-20s, a two-game lead was considered a guaranteed lead. In fact, S27 was the first time a finalist (New York, obviously) led 2-0 and lost. New York would then be the first finalist to lead 3-1 and lose in S31. Anyway, here's what I've come up with.

CODE:

Bland boring text: team with 3-1 lead won in 5 or 6 games

Bold: team with 3-1 lead won in 7 games

RED AND BOLD: team with 3-1 lead lost the series

S27: New York 3-1 Seattle

S28: New York 3-1 Davos

S29: Toronto 3-1 New York, Toronto 3-1 Davos

S30: Seattle 3-1 New York, Calgary 3-1 Seattle

S31: Riga 3-1 Helsinki, Davos 3-1 Riga, New York 3-1 Calgary, New York 3-1 Davos

S32: New York 3-1 Quebec, New York 3-1 Calgary, Riga 3-1 New York

S33: Davos 3-1 Riga, Helsinki 3-1 Riga, Calgary 3-1 New York

S34: Calgary 3-1 Quebec

S35: Cologne 3-1 Davos. Toronto 3-1 Calgary, Quebec 3-1 Calgary

S36: Toronto 3-1 Quebec, Davos 3-1 Helsinki, Toronto 3-1 Davos

S37: No 3-1 leads

S38: Riga 3-1 Vasteras, Toronto 3-1 Seattle, Davos 3-1 Riga

S39: Seattle 3-1 Calgary, New York 3-1 Seattle, New York 3-1 Davos

Well, well, well. Out of a whopping 29 3-1 leads in 13 seasons, just 11 Game 7s were forced, of which seven comeback wins were secured. That's 38% and 24% respectively, for those who like that stuff.

If we go just for the last decade, which is probably fair, then it's 9/23 (39%) and 7/23 (30%). Take away a freak Season 33, where every 3-1 lead was blown away, and things look pretty dire for the comeback settings conspiracy crew (which isn't really a thing, I hope). That season, and three finals in six seasons (S31, S32, S36) which featured 3-1 comebacks is probably what created this myth.

[probably not noah 346]

Victor is a liar. Comeback settings are real. Jardy rigs. 

[AIM-11 134]

In the NHL, the trailing team (down on a 3-1 series) has won less than 10% of the time in 230+ situations.  To think that the VHL has three times that rate would seem to indicate that 'something' is going on.  However, it is also quite possible that it's an issue of small sample size I guess.

[Victor 11,009]

I'm sure over 40 seasons it's closer to 10%, if not less. Since the slightly different sim in S20 (still v1), probably something similar.

Like I said, very skewed by S33 and those finals. Even then, nowhere near the guaranteed losing team winning that some imply.

[RMiner57 23]

Don't crush my dreams, I'll pull my team out of a 3-1 deficit. I will! 

[Molholt 2,185]

rigged

[eaglesfan036 4,605]

Flyers is a statistics major go figure this out

[diamond_ace 3,112]

Well, well, well. Out of a whopping 29 3-1 leads in 13 seasons, just 11 Game 7s were forced, of which seven comeback wins were secured. That's 38% and 24% respectively, for those who like that stuff.

 

This does, however, say that if a game 7 is reached, the team doing the coming back wins it more than the team being come back on.

[AIM-11 134]

Can someone get the stats for all 40 seasons?

[Victor 11,009]

Can someone get the stats for all 40 seasons?

we don't have files up to s17. I could probably guess a lot of them. I guess you could go on the first site and go through peoples' posts to figure out which team won each game but I mean, if someone has time to kill.

[Fire Tortorella 2,653]

Bump.

[Victor 11,009]

I'm going to do all 40 seasons just to shut all the haters up!

[Phil 5,129]

Need an update on this Victor!

[Victor 11,009]

One red and bold one, one boring one.