Claimed: Can Calgary Take Down Toronto? [1/2]

[CowboyinAmerica 2,889]

 

Don't Write Calgary Off Yet

 

With only about six games left in the VHL season per team, there aren’t exactly many playoff races to keep tabs on. Sure, the Bears are technically not mathematically eliminated, but making up 7 points in 5 games – and the Wranglers have a game in hand, no less – isn’t something many impartial observers expect them to do.

 

So we’re left looking ahead to the first round of the playoffs, where similarly, not many people are expecting intrigue. The Reign and Dynamo seemed to be a class above the Titans this season, and the Wranglers don’t even have a record above .500 to fall back on in North America. Most observers are expecting an easy walk to a Quebec/Toronto and Riga/Davos semifinals.

 

But should they? A closer look at the stats reveals a few ways that the first round’s playoff underdogs can secure an upset, just by looking at the previous games between the likely opponents this season. This week, I’ll take a look at the Calgary Wranglers and Toronto Legion series, while next week I’ll examine the matchup between Helsinki and whoever their first round opponent will be.

 

3 Statistical Reasons Could Beat

 

1. Close and tight: Calgary has gone 3-4 against the Legion this season, with one game left to play against the teams. It looks even worse when you consider that one of those Calgary wins came in OT, while all four of Toronto’s came in regulation. The goal differential, though, tells a different story: Toronto won the goal battle just 13-10 in those seven games. That tells me two things: first, that the teams were roughly even in games against one another. Second, that each of the games were low-scoring and close, which favors the less talented team (Calgary in this case) when one inadvertent bounce of the puck can bring victory.

 

2. Kill them all: In their games against one another, the Legion has scored just 4 power play goals on 36 power play attempts, a penalty kill conversion rate of 89 percent for Calgary. Looking at the Wranglers’ roster, that’s not too much of a surprise – the team’s strength lies in its defensive core that features S55 first overall pick Felix Savard alongside wily veterans like Titan Kronos and Elijah Dotran. 5-on-5 goals are harder to come by in the postseason in general, which makes converting penalty chances even more crucial. Calgary has the edge there.

 

3. More penalties please: In speaking of penalties themselves, one thing jumps out to me when examining the Legion’s stats by opponent: They’ve taken just 60 penalty minutes in games against the Wranglers, the least against any single opponent in the league. Meanwhile, the Wranglers have allowed more power plays to Toronto (36, tied with Helsinki) than any other team. There’s no particular reason for that other than good old fashioned randomness; only Sokolov and Aackckqz Ky’s Random.org gods are the only Legion players to have invested anything in Discipline in the practice facility. To me, that screams of regression to the mean, meaning Calgary will have better luck with penalties than in the games that have been nearly even between to the two teams though far.

[Beketov 9,024]

Has TOR G been in net for any of those games against Calgary? I'm pretty sure Ironside didn't start them all which skews stats a little but.

 

It will also partly depend which Sokolov shows up. I started the season very strong and am finishing decent but completely sucked in the middle.

[CowboyinAmerica 2,889]

21 minutes ago, Beketov said:

Has TOR G been in net for any of those games against Calgary? I'm pretty sure Ironside didn't start them all which skews stats a little but.

 

Well, do we know whether Ironside will start them all in the playoffs? 

[Beketov 9,024]

Just now, CowboyinAmerica said:

 

Well, do we know whether Ironside will start them all in the playoffs? 

TOR G 2 Gud

[eaglesfan036 4,599]

lit

[TheLastOlympian07 2,388]

Review

Nice little write up on the Wranglers and their chances. While I don't think it will happen it would be fun to watch. However, Helsinki obviously has more of a chance to upset either Riga or Davod than Calgary has of upsetting Toronto

[DollarAndADream 3,356]

It's definitely possible. Hell, CAL G just beat us in the last sim of the season against Ironside.

 

It'll be interesting, and not a no contest that's for sure.